NFL Draft: Thoughts From My Couch

2012 Mock Draft 2.0

2012-01-20T12:59:00.000-08:00

The underclassmen have declared, pushing some seniors down the list, while also leaving a loaded class for 2013, particularly at quarterback.

After a surprising week of playoff football, we have a slightly altered order. In this case, it allowed teams like Green Bay to address needs earlier in the draft than anticipated while New England get a higher than expected pick from New Orleans in the Mark Ingram trade.

Still too early to do any predictive mocking, this is based on consensus prospect ranking and team need. The middle of the first round in particular is kind to teams in terms of marrying value and need.

I use a tiered ranking system to help teams with multiple needs or those teams without a clear direction based on value. In other words, when a team drafts there is a highest possible tier of players from which they can choose.

If no needs are satisfied by that pool of players, the drop-off in talent for reaching is weighed against the quality of the talent in the highest tier.

In some cases, that means teams make luxury picks to accumulate more value (a strategy too few teams actually employ).

1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
This pick is a foregone conclusion given that Colts Owner Jim Irsay has said he'll draft either Luck or Robert Griffin III. Indianapolis has gutted the leadership team, removing both head coach and general manager, an indication the team is ready to rebuild. They couldn't ask for a better player to rebuild with than Andrew Luck, the player some are comparing to John Elway. Luck has a plus arm, though not an elite one in terms of strength. The Stanford quarterback makes up for his lack of top-level arm strength with outstanding accuracy, great timing and tremendous preparation. The Colts have had Peyton Manning for the last decade and a half. It's almost like they get to draft him twice.

2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
A mess in the secondary and on the edges, St. Louis will have to decide between three franchise players in Claiborne, Oklahoma State's wide receiver Justin Blackmon and Matt Khalil from USC, who was so good he moved 2011 first round pick Tyron Smith to right tackle. Blackmon is a popular pick here for the Rams, but I don't see Jeff Fisher going that direction here. Claiborne may not be Champ Bailey or Darrelle Revis, but he has tremendous fluidity in coverage and solid ball skills. He's a Day 1 starter for this defense and new Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams will love him knowing one-on-one coverage will hold up amidst the myriad blitz packages Williams will use.

3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
The second and third picks are interesting because they're the most likely places for teams hoping to grab Robert Griffin III to jump. Cleveland may swap picks with St. Louis or a team like Washington could jump up as well. If someone does move into the second spot, there is a chance Minnesota would take Claiborne to combat Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson et al. On the other hand, Khalil is the only true franchise tackle in this draft in my opinion and when you invest a high round pick in a quarterback as the Vikings did with Christian Ponder, you have to make sure he's protected from guys like Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews.

4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB
If Griffin III is available here, I think the Browns think long and hard about it, but my guess is they'd rather not take another quarterback. Colt McCoy is not the problem with the offense in Cleveland, it's that the team just has no weapons for him. Trent Richardson is unequivocally, the best running back prospect to come out of college since Adrian Peterson. His bullish style will warm the hearts of Browns fans who thought Peyton Hillis would be their team's return to the good old days of smash mouth Cleveland running backs. Justin Blackmon also makes sense, but getting Richardson and a lower-tier wide receiver later in the draft has more value than Blackmon and a lower-tier running back.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,WR,OL
This is not an ideal situation for the Buccaneers because the best player on the board is Justin Blackmon and the Buccaneers have at least competent group of skill players. The Bucs best option may be to take Blackmon and hope Josh Freeman doesn't continue to regress, or they could take Riley Reiff, the only other elite tackle in this draft and help keep Freeman upright. Tampa plays in a division with some terrific offenses and it's defense was a bigger problem last year so Quinton Coples could get a look here, but Reiff makes more sense to try to protect your franchise quarterback.

6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
Washington likely won't get RG3 if they wait until their original pick to get him. They'll have to trade up and my guess is that they will. With a semi-competent quarterback, the Redskins would have probably won the NFC East, which is saying something considering they beat the eventual champion Giants twice in the regular season. Griffin is not your typical spread college quarterback in that he has great throwing mechanics to go with that dynamic running ability. Robert Griffin III isn't quite Cam Newton, but if he can give the 'Skins a similar offensive boost, the playoffs are a possibility next year.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,DB,OLB
Blaine Gabbert was a disappointment last year for the Jaguars, but their skill position players outside of Maurice Jones-Drew were an absolute joke. Blackmon is not quite as explosive as fellow Cowboy wide-out Dez Bryant, but Blackmon has a similar frame and more consistent hands. Bryant may be more naturally talented, but Blackmon is more consistent on and off the field. Just as A.J. Green made Andy Dalton better for the Bengals, Blackmon could do wonders for Gabbert in this Jaguar offense.

8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
Getting a corner like Dre Kirkpatrick will be temping here, but getting the best front seven prospect in the draft makes more sense for a defense that was heinous last year. Playing teams like New Orleans and Atlanta twice certainly didn't help, nor did playing the NFC North with the Packers and the Lions on the schedule, but this defense hasn't been the same since Julius Peppers left. Coples was a potential #1 overall pick heading into this season and while he under-performed is still one of the few elite pass-rushers in the draft. Having played defensive tackle as a senior, Coples reminds me a little of Justin Tuck with his lanky frame and ability to be disruptive off the edge and along the interior.

9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: QB,WR,S,LB,TE
We'll know a lot more about who to pencil in here after the Dolphins hire a coach. Some offensive names are out there which leads me to believe it's a good bet improving the offensive line will be a priority. An aggressive coach, perhaps Green Bay's OC Joe Philbin, may want to trade up for Robert Griffin III, but the prudent choice is the best interior lineman in the draft to help re-establish Miami as a physical run team. Reggie Bush had a statement season and with a better offensive line, could become an even bigger weapon.

10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State
Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
Still isn't a perfect fit for the Bills because he's a raw pass-rusher, but the Penn State product would fit well next to 2011 top pick Marcel Dareus who is the more disruptive of the two. Still, at 6-5, has long arms and can keep blockers engaged so his linebackers can make plays, a critical piece to the 3-4 defense Buffalo runs. If Stevie Johnson isn't re-signed I could see Michael Floyd with this pick or Buffalo could reach for a pass-rusher like Courtney Upshaw.

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Michael Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,TE,OL,NT,LB
Floyd has been one of the most dominant receivers in the nation in his time in South Bend. Off the field issues aside, Floyd has an NFL body and is a physical receiver who demands the ball. Dwayne Bowe's time in K.C. may have run out and Jonathan Baldwin's growth was stunted by inconsistency at quarterback. Floyd would also allow Steve Breaston to resume his role as slot receiver extraordinaire and allow the Chiefs to use Dexter McCluster from a number of different positions.

12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,CB,LB,DE,OL
Did you see the Alabama defense in the National Championship game? Kirkpatrick was a big reason why Nick Saban's defense can play so aggressively upfront. He's relied on to take away his side of the field and does so with regularity. A big, physical corner, Kirkpatrick is a better tackler than Claiborne and has great feel in coverage. Had Landry Jones not decided to return to Norman, he might have been the pick here, but Kirkpatrick is one of the best back end players in the draft and will help Seattle right away.

13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
Arizona's success next season will primarily hinge on Kevin Kolb's ability to shake off a sluggish first season in Phoenix. If Kolb can't cut it this season, I don't see the Cardinals putting up with it for another season given the price they paid for him. Getting Kolb some field position and defensive stops will help and Kuechly is the kind of cerebral, instinctive player the Cards could use. Kuechly won't win any combine awards for athleticism, but finds the football and tackles extremely well. Arizona has had terrific offensive players over the last few years, but not many defensive ones. Kuechly is a potential Pro Bowl middle linebacker.

14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Michael Brockers DT LSU
Needs: CB,DL,OL,OLB
I couldn't figure out why the so-called experts in the media kept saying Dallas had one of the most talented rosters in football. Frankly, that's just not true. The Cowboy defense, outside of DeMarcus Ware, isn't very good and when Jerry Jones sees the way Michael Brockers plays at his size, I don't see him passing. Brockers is just a sophomore out of Baton Rouge, but is 6-6 304 pounds and uses his hands extremely well for someone as lanky as he is. He's not a pass-rush demon yet, but the athletic ability is there. In terms of his ability to engage and hold the point, he's a great fit for the Cowboys 3-4 defense.

15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
Philly could really use the tackling and toughness of Luke Kuechly, but the Eagels' other major concern last year was keeping their quarterback upright. Winston Justice just isn't a starting NFL tackle and while Jason Peters is solid on the left side, Mike Vick's blindside has been a problem. Martin is a better fight on the right side anyway where he can use his physicality and motor to open running lanes for LeSean McCoy. If Philly ran the 3-4 defense, it's a no-brainer to pick Courtney Upshaw who could play inside and outside, but in a typical 4-3 defense, Upshaw just isn't a good fit.

16.) New York Jets (8-8) Melvin Ingram OLB/DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
Despite their reputation, the Jets defense had a hard time getting to opposing quarterbacks without bringing extra rushers last year. Melvin Ingram could be the answer to Rex Ryan's problems as a versatile disruptor upfront. Ingram has played inside and outside on the defensive line, while also standing up and rushing out of a two-point stance. The Jets could line him up at end or linebacker in their defense and his experience playing tackle will make him effective on loops and stunts pushing the pocket inside. Alabama's outstanding safety Mark Barron would also make sense here.

17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
The Carson Palmer trade allows Cincinnati to address their top need with the best player at his position in this year's class. Barron is a tough, physical safety who can play in the box and in coverage. Defensively, the Bengals were one of the most improved units in the league last year, but depth in the secondary is a problem. Barron could be a starter and quality contributor right away.

18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Courtney Upshaw OLB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
This San Diego defense has flat-lined since Jamal Williams and Shawne Merriman left a few years ago. They can't rush the passer, get a stop or even tackle people at this point. Upshaw is just the kind of aggressive, powerful edge rusher the Chargers needs. The Crimson Tide linebacker played as a stand-up rusher in Alabama's incredible defense and is relentless off the edge. Corner would also make sense here but in the AFC West, you need a physical front seven and pass rush is a bigger problem for San Diego.

19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Even with Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, the Bear offense just isn't very good. They haven't had a legitimate #1 receiver in a long time and even if Matt Forte comes back to Chicago, he can't do it alone. That defense is getting older and could use some help but Kendall Wright can be for the Bears offense what they hoped Devin Hester would be. Wright is quick, explosive and a big play waiting to happen. He's a more natural receiver than Johnny Knox who is still recovering from a back injury. Wright is flying up draft boards, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears preferred a bigger body at receiver like Alshon Jeffery.

20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: WR,CB,DL,TE,OL

Cortland Finnegan is a free agent and the Titans love tough, physical corners. Dennard does not have top-end speed, but most of the receivers in the AFC South, Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne for example, are not burners. Dennard can help a passing defense lacking depth at corner. The pas rush has also been a big issue in Nashville, so someone like Fletcher Cox or Nick Perry would make sense here as well.

21.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Lamar Miller RB Miami (Fla.)
Needs: S,RB,G,WR,LB
Cincinnati has a chance, with two first round picks, to add to their group of young talent. The Bengals hit with A.J. Green and Andy Dalton last year and have built a solid core of talent through the draft for the last few years. The offense would be even better if it had a running back defenses really had to account for. Cedric Benson is a free agent and turns 30 next season, meaning the Bengals need to find a replacement. Miller is a starting-caliber back who runs with good balance and forward lean. He is patient at the point and can explode through holes and always finishes runs.

22.) Browns F/ Atlanta Vontaze Burfict LB Arizona State
Needs: WR,RB,OL,LB,QB

Cleveland certainly has bigger needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line, but I think with Richardson at the top and Burfict here you send a message to your team that you want tough, physical football players. The Browns would probably have the most punishing offense and defensive players in this draft as Burfict is a thick, aggressive linebacker who loves to hit people. He does have a tendency to let his emotions dictate his play, but just a junior, he has time to mature and channel that aggression into his play. Athletically, he can play inside or outside and has some pass rush ability making him a versatile piece to Cleveland's improving defense.

23.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Detroit is one of the most dangerous young teams in the league loaded with talent thanks to some outstanding drafts. Unfortunately for them, this year's class is loaded with defensive lineman and the Lions have one of the best fronts in football. A running back or linebacker may fit a bigger need here, but Glenn was once considered a top prospect and has fallen slightly because of his lack of mobility. One thing you can't teach though, is size and at almost 350 pounds, Glenn has plenty of that. He can play guard or tackle at the next level and could really help Detroit open holes for a running game that has been non-existent lately.

24.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi
Needs: CB,DL,OL,S,RB
The Steelers lost to the Broncos in part because they played with a patchwork defensive line. Brett Keisel's beard is epic, but he'll be 34 next season and former All-Pro nose tackle Casey Hampton will be 35. Pittsburgh drafted Cameron Heyward last year, but that shouldn't stop them from grabbing Cox, a disruptive tackle in the SEC who can add some youth and athleticism to that Steeler front. An offensive lineman here would also make sense, but it's a little early for someone like Mike Adams or Zebrie Sanders.

25.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
If you're Denver, your top priority has to be to get Tim Tebow more weapons. Demaryius Thomas has shown flashes of his talent while Erick Decker and Eddie Royal are solid compliments. Getting Tebow a tight end who can both block and be a receiving threat would be huge for this offense given how much responsibility the tight end will have in the run game. Allen reminds me of a slightly more athletic Heath Miller in that he isn't going to dominate the way Rob Gronkowski will, but can win his 1-on-1 match-ups and will be a reliable blocker for you as well.

26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
Houston has a chance to be scary good next season if they can add a threat opposite Andre Johnson. The defense took a huge step forward with an outstanding 2011 draft and the addition of Johnathan Joseph. The Texan running game is dominant and with defenses keying on Andre Johnson, Houston needs a second receiver who can be a threat. Jeffery has a frame like Calvin Johnson plus a similar pedigree and background. Not overly fast, Jeffery can win against man coverage due to his size and long arms. He will get plenty of 1-on-1 opportunities in this offense as long as Johnson is on the field opposite him.

27.) Patriots F/ New Orleans Nick Perry OLB/DE USC
Needs:DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If not for a meaningless Week 17 game for the Packers, the Patriots might have wound up with the worst passing defense ever statistically speaking. The pass rush was anemic most of the season and even though a few players stepped up as the year wore on, the Patriots need help on D. Nick Perry declared early out of USC and is still somewhat raw as a pass rusher. Physically, however, and as an athlete, Perry can be a difference-maker for the Patriots. He could play defensive end or linebacker depending on the defensive alignment and could allow the Patriots to go to back to a 3-4 defense, a scheme they abandoned basically because they didn't have the linebackers to make it work.

28.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Whitney Mercilus OLB/DE Illinois
Needs: OLB,OL,CB,DL
There's really only one place the Packers can go in the first round and that is an impact pass-rusher. Whether it's a defensive lineman or linebacker, Green Bay has to get someone to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks because the Packer defensive backs are the best in the league at making quarterbacks pay for throws that are just slightly off. Whitney Mercilus had 16 sacks to lead the nation and forced an amazing 9 fumbles playing against some elite offensive linemen in the Big 10. Amazingly, he's still raw as a pass rush technician and has relied mostly on athletic ability and will. He doesn't have great explosion or closing speed, but with Clay Matthews opposite him, Mercilus will get a ton of 1-on-1 opportunities and should be able to make the most of them.

29.) New York Giants (9-7) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
Despite playing exceptionally well against the Packers, New York's secondary is not exceedingly talented and could use an upgrade. On the other hand, Eli Manning has an outstanding group of receivers and with a more consistent running game, could really keep the Giants in the thick of the NFC. Getting some help for an aging offensive line group would help. Adams certainly has left tackle talent and does a solid job in pass protection using his hands and walling off defenders. Not overly assertive in the run game, Adams doesn't quite have that bullish demeanor you'd like an elite tackle to have. Luckily for New York, they have two running backs who more than make up for it with their physical running style.

30.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Peter Konz C Wisconsin
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,RB
John Harbaugh has to be pleased with where his roster is heading into 2012. Baltimore is heading to the AFC Championship game and has some emerging offensive play-makers. However, at a few positions, the Ravens are getting long in the tooth and Matt Birk's time in the league is coming to an end. Peter Konz is one of the best interior lineman in the draft and could be cornerstone of this offense with Joe Flacco and Ray Rice for many years. Konz is a smart, physical offensive lineman and has the leadership skills you look for in a player having to make protection calls at the line. Athletically, he can pull and move around, allowing Cam Cameron to use his creativity in the Ravens' play-calling.

31.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
San Francisco has a loaded roster and the defense was one of the best in the last decade. On the other hand, the 49ers have a below average pass defense and ranked near the bottom of the league statistically for most of the year. In the divisional round against the Saints, that defense forced 5 turnovers (dropped at least 2 other interceptions) and the Saints still scored 32 points. Carlos Rogers had a great season for the 'Niners but depth in the secondary is a concern, especially if this team expects to consistently compete against passing teams like the Saints, Lions and Packers in the NFC. Jenkins is a Florida transfer with five-star talent and five-star attitude issues. If there's a player who can get Jenkins' head right and maximize his talent, it's Jim Harbaugh.

32.) New England Patriots (13-3) Dontari Poe DT Memphis
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
Not only was New England's defense awful against the pass, it was 17th against the rush and it probably would have been worse if New England's offense hadn't been so prolific. Imagine trying to run against almost 700 total pounds of Vince Wilfork and Dontari Poe. The only true nose tackle in the draft, Poe is surprisingly agile for a man his size (6-5 350) and can really push the pocket inside. Poe would be an ideal fit to replace Wilfork should the Patriots decide to go back to the 3-4, or pair with Wilfork inside in a 4-3 set. New England's secondary remains an issue, but the Patriots won a Super Bowl with Troy Brown at quarterback because their front seven was so good. Expect Bill Belichik to focus on improving that unit first.

Aerial Assault: 2012 Draft Wide Receivers in Statistical Perspective

2012-01-17T13:52:00.000-08:00

Last week, I took a look at a statistical look at quarterback prospects in the 2012 compared to elite NFL quarterbacks.

What I found was some interesting similarities among pro and college signal-callers as well as some troubling statistics about would-be draft picks.

I took a similar approach with this year's wide receiver group, although finding efficiency metrics for wide receivers without becoming too detailed can be difficult.

Using something like targets and completed catches, to me, is a flawed metric for college evaluations because top-level wide receivers are often relied upon more to make individual plays than the NFL.

A college quarterback, figuring his guy always has a mismatch, will throw more intro coverage and traffic to an elite wide receiver than the NFL, simply because most of the time, the receivers are just better than the corners.

As I broke down the collegiate numbers of elite NFL wide receivers (I used yards per catch for receivers with 60 or more catches in the NFL this season to determine which receivers to include), there were some interesting trends.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Victor Cruz	130	1932	14.86	11	8.5	5.9	87.8
Jordy Nelson	206	2822	13.7	20	9.7	6.4	88.2
Vincent Jackson	146	2844	19.48	32	21.9	6.6	129.3
Larry Fitzgerald	161	2677	16.62	34	21.2	6.2	103
Steve Smith	78	1603	20.55	12	15.4	3.7	76.3
Calvin Johnson	178	2927	16.44	28	15.7	4.7	77
Mike Wallace	101	1910	19.91	15	14.9	2.7	51.6
A.J. Green	166	2619	15.77	23	13.9	5.2	81.8
Antonio Brown	307	3208	10.44	22	7.2	7.1	74.6
Hakeem Nicks	181	2840	15.69	21	11.6	5.2	81.1
Darius Heyward-Bey	138	2089	15.14	13	9.4	3.7	56.5
Brandon Marshall	110	1656	15.05	13	11.8	4.4	66.2
Dez Bryant	147	2425	16.5	29	19.7	5.57	93.3
Dwayne Bowe	154	2403	15.6	26	17.1	3.5	54.6
Marques Colston	182	2834	15.57	18	9.9	4.55	70.85
Greg Jennings	238	3539	14.87	39	16.4	5.7	84.3
Andre Johnson	92	1831	19.9	20	21.8	2.7	53.9
Wes Welker	259	3069	11.85	21	8.1	5.2	61.4

The top 14 are the players who qualified under my above requirements. I added Jennings and Johnson, two elite receivers whose numbers were hurt by injury this year.

I also added Welker for the sake of argument, although, in my opinion, without the Patriot system, he's no where near this conversation.

In terms of physicality, the average player in this pool was 6'2 1/2, 211 pounds. Interestingly, 7 of the 17 players on this list are from non-AQ conferences, but 7 of the remaining 10 came from either the SEC or the ACC.

In fact, there's not one Big 10 receiver on this list (Paging Nick Toon).

As far as the production goes, there are numbers all over the place in terms of catches, yards, touchdowns and the efficiency per game numbers.

The most consistent statistic here is average. If you eliminate my three additions (none of whom would have qualified under my parameters) only 3 of the 17 players have a college yard per catch average below 15 and one of them is Victor Cruz at 14.86.

Now remember from our discussion about quarterbacks that these numbers are not predictive. A yard per catch average above 15 does not necessitate NFL success, but it's important to point out that it is, by far, the most consistent characteristic all of these receivers share.

Furthermore, 3 of the top 4 averages on this list are also in the top 7 in NFL yard per catch.

Players like Jordy Nelson and Nelson Cruz, the second of whom lead the league in average, are proof that a lack of success in college won't preclude success in the NFL. On the other hand, both are surrounded by elite offensive talent and play for Super Bowl MVP quarterbacks.

The second and perhaps more appealing metric may help show why players like Nelson and Cruz have had success in the NFL despite not being wildly efficient in college.

Look at what happens to this receiver group if we rank them by the percentage of catches they made also resulting in touchdowns.

1.) Vincent Jackson
2.) Andre Johnson
3.) Larry Fitzgerald
4.) Dez Bryant
5.) Dwayne Bowe
6.) Greg Jennings
7.) Calvin Johnson
8.) Steve Smith
9.) Mike Wallace
10.) A.J. Green

Basically, you have the 10 best receivers in football on that list. The reason is because the metric mixes efficiency with effect on the game. There's no bigger way a receiver can impact a game than with a touchdown.

That statistic measures the frequency without which a receiver is able to impact the game by doing more more just putting up yards.

Notice too, the receivers at the bottom of the list, guys like Nelson, Cruz, Brown Welker and Colston, all of them play in prolific offenses full of weapons and get the ball from Pro Bowl quarterbacks.

This particular metric may allow us to take into consideration a significant increase in production from these players from their college career to the pros.

Here's how the 2012 WR class stacks up

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Justin Blackmon	244	3378	13.84	37	15.1	7.2	99.4
Michael Floyd	266	3645	13.7	36	13.5	6.3	86.8
Kendall Wright	295	3914	13.26	29	9.8	6	79.9
Alshon Jeffery	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2
Nick Toon	162	2343	14.46	17	10.5	3.9	55.8
Dwight Jones	146	2086	14.29	15	10.3	5.2	74.5
Mohamed Sanu	204	2201	10.79	12	5.9	5.5	59.5
Rueben Randle	94	1621	17.24	13	13.8	2.5	43.8
Brian Quick	131	2322	17.73	20	15.2	3.9	68.3
Jeff Fuller	226	2973	13.15	33	14.6	5	66.1
Jarius Wright	165	2846	17.29	23	13.9	3.4	59.3

Based on average yards per catch, only 4 of these 11 qualify as above average receivers based on the NFL comparison and only one of them (Jeffery) is considered an elite prospect, meaning the other 3 elite wide outs don't meet this criterion.

Our other statistic, touchdown percentage, makes some important distinctions with this group as well. Only 3 of these players would be ranked in the top 10 in the above list and Brian Quick's appearance on that list is likely, at least in part, due to the fact that he plays in a non-AQ conference against inferior talent.

On the other hand, remember that more than 40% of those top receivers were from non-AQ schools, making Quick the best candidate to join the group.

Jeff Fuller's stock has fallen over the course of the season, due in part to the up and down play of his quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

All of his his numbers are almost exactly the NFL group's average in terms of yards, catches per game and yards per game.

Furthermore, his touchdown percentage may indicate he's undervalued based on these projections.

These number also suggest Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright, particularly Wright, are overrated. Both fail to meet the average in yards of per catch and both fall short of our touchdown percentage benchmark, although Floyd is close.

Two of the sleepers of this class appear to be Rueben Randle and Jarius Wright, both of whom have well above average yard per catch numbers and both would just barely miss the touchdown list (Wright would actually be tied with A.J. Green).

Both play in the SEC against elite corners and while they get it done in different ways, Wright being more of a slot receiver at 5'10'' and Randle an outside guy at 6'3'', the fact is they do get it done.

For Blackmon, a likely top 5 pick, the numbers support his case as a blue-chip prospect. Worries about his yard per catch average can be explained by his obscenely high usage rate, catching 7.2 passes per game at OK State.

That's more than any player on our NFL list.

There is an interesting similarity to note here, so let's look at two players side by side. We'll call them Player A and Player B.

	Catches	Yards	Average	TD	TD%	C/G	Y/G
Player A	178	2927	16.44	28	16.4	4.7	77
Player B	179	2894	16.16	22	12.3	4.6	74.2

Player A is 6'5'' 236 and played in the ACC while player B is 6'4'' 232 and played in the SEC.

Player A is Calvin Johnson.
Player B is Alshon Jeffery.

Jeffery's stock has fallen somewhat, but when you lose Marcus Lattimore and have no continuity at quarterback, it shouldn't be surprising when your passing offense becomes less effective, especially when you play against SEC defenses.

Jeffery has seen two of the elite corners in this draft Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins.

He has size you can't coach and is a natural plucker of the football. He's not as fast as Johnson, but in terms of leaping ability and making catches in traffic, Jeffery and Johnson are peers.

Rankings this group by yards per catch:

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Jarius Wright
3.) Rueben Randle
4.) Alshon Jeffery
5.) Nick Toon
6.) Dwight Jones
7.) Justin Blackmon
8.) Michael Floyd
9.) Kendall Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

Rankings by touchdown percentage

1.) Brian Quick
2.) Justin Blackmon
3.) Jeff Fuller
4.) Jarius Wright
5.) Rueben Randle
6.) Michael Floyd
7.) Alshon Jeffery
8.) Nick Toon
9.) Dwight Jones
10.) Kendall Wright
11.) Mohamed Sanu

It may not, then, be surprising for the average draft placement for the elite NFL receivers to be the 59th pick in the draft. As the data shows, there are some extremely talented receivers in the middle and bottom of these rankings.

Were they better college players than those ranked ahead of them? Perhaps not, but they clearly have skills that would translate at the next level.

Since it's important to remember statistics are only relevant with context, let's take these statistics based on where these prospects were ranked heading into our analysis.

The rankings would look like this:

1.) Justin Blackmon
2.) Michael Floyd
3.) Alshon Jeffery
4.) Brian Quick
5.) Nick Toon
6.)Rueben Randle
7.) Kendall Wright
8.) Dwight Jones
9.) Jarius Wright
10.) Jeff Fuller
11.) Mohamed Sanu

The only real difference between this list and the list we started with was the flip-flopping (more or less) of Brian Quick with Kendall Wright, and the rise of Rueben Randle.

Mohamed Sanu also sees a dramatic fall, but most scouts see Sanu as somewhat of a raw, project-type player anyway.

Remember, it doesn't mean this is the list of players as it will look come draft time or in a few years when we rank the careers of these players.

There are simply too many variables. On the other hand, it is relevant to see what history shows us about the kinds of backgrounds needed to succeed in the NFL.

No one approach is the end-all-be-all, but at least the numbers help us put these players in context with there soon-to-be NFL peers.

Deep Impact: 2012 Free Agents with Most Dramatic Effect on Draft

2012-01-16T10:40:00.000-08:00

Projecting the NFL Draft in January, before the February Combine or free agency proves tricky because those top 10 teams in particular, may prefer to solve major roster flaws through proven talent in free agency.

That means without knowing who is signed and who is cut, assigning needs to teams and trying to decide which players teams will target is somewhat of an exercise in futility.

On the other hand, it's really fun to do and people love to read about it.

That being said, there will be free agent movement that we know, without much extrapolation, will impact the NFL Draft. This list is not necessarily in order of importance.

1.) Matt Flynn QB (UFA) Green Bay Packers
The best player at the most important position in the sport (Drew Brees is a free agent, but there's no way he leaves New Orleans). The relative lack of depth at this position in free agency elevates Flynn's worth even further and with so many teams needing a quarterback, the former 7th round pick out of LSU will be be in high demand.

With Andrew Luck a lock at the top of the draft, Robert Griffin III will be a hot trade commodity, as in teams trying to trade up to get him. If a team like Miami or Cleveland locks Flynn up prior to the draft, not only does that have them set at that position, it reduces the value of #2 and #3 picks held by St. Louis and Minnesota respectively, who may be hoping to get a bounty in return from a team hoping to grab RG3.

2.) Vincent Jackson WR (UFA) San Diego Chargers
Jackson is more a representative of the extremely deep group of free agent wide receivers heading into 2012. Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colton, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham are part of a free agent class at a time when the wide receiver position is one of the most valuable in football.

The 2012 Draft has depth as well, but a team like Buffalo may choose not to resign Stevie Johnson in favor of getting a guy like Robert Meachem and drafting someone early. With so many talented players on the market, the relative value of each is decreased both as free agents and potential draft picks. In other words, teams who would otherwise have preferred the value of a draft pick can get a player with proven skills for just a little more money.

With as many as 5 wide receivers considered 1st round quality, keep an eye on free agent wide receivers.

3.) Matt Forte RB (UFA) Chicago Bears
Without Forte, Chicago's offense was abysmal. In fact, it could be easily argued that Matt Forte was a more important part of the Bear's offense in 2011 than Jay Cutler who was also lost to an injury. Chicago absolutely, positively, without question, must resign him. If I'm Matt Forte, I'm insisting on big-time money because I know how valuable I am to the offense.

However, no one would blame Forte for telling the Bears to shove their contract extension and sign somewhere else. If he does, expect the Bears to be active in the first round with a running back, not to mention if Forte does sign elsewhere, it could effect the stock of Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller and Ryan Wilson who all carry first-round grades.

4.) Cliff Avril DE (UFA) Detroit Lions
Players like Robert Mathis and John Abraham are also part of the 2012 crop of free-agent pass-rushers, but Avril is only 25 and has by far the most upside in this group. Avril is quick off the edge and agile enough to fit in a 4-3 or 3-4 system where he could be a rush linebacker.

The 2012 class does not have the elite pass-rushers of some year's past although Quinton Coples has #1 overall pick potential and Whitney Mercilus lead FBS in sacks last year. There are only a few elite pass-rushing talents in both the draft and free agency, which means the value of each rises considerably. Expect to see teams trading up to grab their pass-rusher of choice.

5.) Brent Grimes CB (UFA) Atlanta Falcons
For Atlanta to have any chance to compete with the Saints in the NFC South, they have to keep Brent Grimes. If they can't, he'll be perhaps the most sought after defensive player in free agency. Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan, Brandon Carr and Marcus Trufant are among the other free agents at corner, all of whom are starting caliber players in a league where you can never have too many defensive backs.

Corner is a top-heavy portion of this year's draft with several elite players and then just a bunch of guys. Morris Claiborne, Alfonso Dennard, Dre Kirkpatrick and Janoris Jenkins are top-flight talents, but where they fall may have a lot to do with who moves and who stays in free agency.

Claiborne has to the most to lose as a potential top 3 pick unless St. Louis and Minnesota both choose to address defensive back in free agency.

By the Numbers: Comparing Elite NFL Quarterbacks to 2012 Draft Prospects

2012-01-08T19:02:00.000-08:00

Using statistics to project athletes from college to the pros would make a scout's job much easier. Over the years, writers like John Hollinger have come up with formulas to take college basketball players and predict what kind of NBA players they might make.

It's an inexact science to be sure and there is no silver bullet, or scouts would already be using it.

Trying to the do the same with NFL players proves much more difficult because the college and NFL systems a player is in can make a significantly greater difference in football than it does in basketball.

I broke down the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL this season by different statistical categories. Often, writers will want to use historical context, but given the constant flux of the pro game, using the most up to date information we can provides us the most relevant information.

Given the inherent flaws of gross statistics and even some efficiency statistics, I used QB Rating to pick a "Top 10" for comparison purposes.The following are the Top 10 QB's career college numbers.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Aaron Rodgers	424	656	5,469	43	13	64.70%	3.3:1	8.33
Drew Brees	1026	1628	11,792	90	44	63.00%	2.0:1	7.24
Tom Brady	443	711	5,351	35	19	62.31%	1.8:1	7.52
Tony Romo	560	892	7,816	82	34	62.78%	2.4:1	8.76
Matthew Stafford	564	987	7,731	51	33	57.14%	1.54:1	7.83
Matt Schaub	716	1069	7,502	56	26	66.97%	1.69:1	7.02
Eli Manning	829	1363	10,119	81	34	60.82%	2.38:1	7.42
Matt Ryan	807	1347	9,313	56	37	59.91%	1.51:1	6.91
Alex Smith	389	587	5,203	47	8	66.27%	5.86:1	8.86
Ben Roethlisberger	854	1304	10,829	84	34	65.49%	2.47:1	8.30

Averages	661.2	1054	8,112.50	62.5	28.2	62.68%	2.21:1	7.69

A brief look at the numbers and you'll see Alex Smith is actually the most impressive statistical player on this list. Tom Brady is particularly underwhelming and Ben Roethlisberger is perhaps the most accomplished overall.

One of the important lessons of Alex Smith appears to be that without a sufficient sample size, we tend to lose the reliability of these numbers. Smith was wonderfully efficient against mid-major talent and threw by far the fewest passes on this list as the quarterback at Utah.

Smith's success this year, however, illustrates my first point about the necessity to put a player in the proper system to succeed.

The statistical proficiency of the quarterbacks in college systems vary, but completion percentage and yards per attempt seem like translatable talents as does the ability to score versus the propensity to turn the ball over (TD:INT).

In other words, quarterbacks who can't complete high percentages in college, won't change much in the pros. Furthermore, dink and dunk college quarterbacks will be the same game managers in the NFL.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Andrew Luck	686	1033	9083	80	21	66.41%	3.81:1	8.79
Robert Griffin III	776	1159	10,071	77	17	66.95%	4.53:1	8.69
Landry Jones	1005	1603	12,218	92	40	62.79%	2.3:1	7.62
Ryan Tannehill	452	725	5,053	41	20	62.34%	2.05:1	6.97
Nick Foles	938	1403	10,068	67	33	66.86%	2.03:1	7.17
Brandon Weeden	737	1060	8,861	72	26	69.53%	2.77:1	8.36
Kirk Cousins	696	1078	8,831	65	27	64.56%	2.41:1	8.19
Ryan Lindley	933	1683	12,277	87	47	55.44%	1.85:1	7.29
Kellen Moore	1131	1624	14,374	140	26	69.64%	5.38:1	8.85
Russell Wilson	888	1464	11,424	107	20	60.66%	5.35:1	7.8

These are the top 10 prospects entering the 2012 NFL Draft at this point. Landry Jones says he hasn't made a decision, but we'll include him for perspective purposes.

Right away Andrew Luck and Robbert Griffin III jump off the page. Their efficiency and overall production are well above our composite average from above.Does that mean they'll necessarily be top-level NFL quarterbacks?

Of course not.

They need the right coach, right system and right players around them. On the other hand, the reliable indicators like completion percentage and YPA appear to be part Luck and RG3's already impressive resume.

Using statistics to reenforce what we see with our eyes is the best way to use statistics when it comes to their predictive powers. If we thought Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin would be excellent NFL quarterbacks and what we found was startlingly below average, it might give us pause.

Looking at the list above, Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles both seem overrated based on their rankings. The two are big, strong quarterbacks who play on mediocre teams. Neither has a pedigree as big-time winners, nor have they had marquee games to prove their abilities.

That being said, both are well below average when it comes to production, particularly in TD:Int ratio and YPA.

Tannehill is only a two-year starter while Foles has more experience (making his lack of success even more frustrating).

Basically, they are what they are at this point.

Based on the numbers above, he doesn't belong above Brandon Weeden or even Kirk Cousins when it comes to translatable NFL skills like accuracy and driving the ball down the field.

Speaking of Weeden, the Oklahoma State prospect does appear underranked based on these numbers. An interesting doppelganger emerges when you look at these numbers side by side.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Ben Roethlisberger	854	1304	10,829	84	34	65.49%	2.47:1	8.3
Brandon Weeden	737	1060	8,861	72	26	69.53%	2.77:1	8.36

If you take into account the talent-level difference between the Big 12 and the MAC, the two are very similar.

Both are tall, lanky quarterbacks who slide step and move in the pocket to create plays. Weeden, at 28 years-old, doesn't have a ton of upside, but has the experience and maturity that could follow a similar path to Big Ben's with Pittsburgh as he lead them to the playoffs as a rookie.

If I needed a quarterback for the next 10 years, perhaps Tannehill makes more sense because of age and upside, but if I'm an 8-8 team like the Seahawks or a 7-9 team like the Chiefs who may just be a quarterback away from the playoffs next year, I would like Weeden's chances to play right away.

When it comes to interesting similarities though, there is a somewhat shocking pair.

	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp %	TD:Int	YPA
Drew Brees	1026	1628	11,792	90	44	63.00%	2.0:1	7.24
Landry Jones	1005	1603	12,218	92	40	62.79%	2.3:1	7.62

Jones, of course, has put up these numbers as a standing junior. Brees was a senior when he left for the NFL with these Big-10 leading stats.

Oklahoma's signal-caller is more physically gifted, with a bigger frame and stronger arm than Brees. Jones isn't as pinpoint accurate as Brees, but even Brees in San Diego wasn't as accurate or efficient as Brees in New Orleans.

Oklahoma's recent list of NFL quarterbacks isn't exactly a who's who of All-Pro's, but Jones was basically unstoppable with Ryan Broyles before Broyles tore up his knee. Jones is certainly better as a prospect than Blaine Gabbert and there was some discussion he'd the #1 pick last year.

Jones, as a thrower, has as much natural ability as any quarterback in this class and while Griffin put up most of his numbers for middling teams (until this year), Jones has been playing in big games all three years in Norman.

Some uneven play this season has dropped Jones' stock, but he has considered a top 10 pick before the season began.

If we re-ordred the top 10 list based on these numbers it would look more like this:

1.) Andrew Luck
2.) Robert Griffin III
3.) Landry Jones
4.) Brandon Weeden
5.) Kirk Cousins
6.) Nick Foles
7.) Ryan Tannehill
8.) Kellen Moore
9.) Russell Wilson
10.) Ryan Lindley

Lindley couldn't break 60% completing passes in the Mountain West Conference, dropping him down the board and both Moore and Wilson just aren't big enough to rank any higher.

It is interesting to note though, both would be a few spots higher if they were a few inches taller, particularly Moore who has bar far the most impressive stats on the list.

I'm not a fan of expecting dramatic improvement out of players (e.g. Tannehill has to actually show me he can do it before I'll buy that he can), although, we do see guys like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford outperform their college careers.

College numbers don't tell the whole story, but they do expose important flaws to potential teams.

2012 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

2012-01-03T17:32:00.000-08:00

It's the triumphant return of the Thoughts From My Couch blog. For 12 NFL fanbases, the season continues this weekend and for 20 others, it's time to look toward next year.

With the way teams like the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have built perennial contenders - through the draft - NFL teams and fans alike are recognizing the importance of getting it right when it comes to April's annual draft.

Just ask the Polian father-son duo who were shown the door in Indy because they failed to restock the Colts with talent around an aging Peyton Manning.

Juniors still have until mid-January to declare and the playoffs will determine final seedings, but it's fun to have an early look.

These picks reflect my assessment of team needs before free agency and reflect coaching style, draft history and my player rankings.

Until the combine and early indications from free agency, it's too soon to project who will actually take whom. Furthermore, trying to project anything outside of the top 10 or so choices tends to be fruitless since there will always be trades and other assorted craziness on draft night.

This first mock is more about who might fit a need and be of the right value to a team. In other words, if the draft were tomorrow, what might it look like?

1.) Indianapolis Colts (2-14) Andrew Luck QB Stanford

Needs:OL,RB,LB,CB,DT
Andrew Luck is going to have the Colts tweaking the old adage about not passing on a franchise quarterback unless you have one. Indy has a chance to have Peyton Manning Jr. for the next decade if they take Luck and decide to figure the rest out when it comes to Luck and Manning. If the Colts decide Manning and Luck can't co-exist, smart money is on someone paying a bounty for Manning and the Colts rebuilding around a player with the potential be a franchise QB right away. The Luck doubters are growing with the ascension of Baylor's Robert Griffin III, but Luck is the complete package.

2.) St. Louis Rams (2-14) Morris Claiborne CB LSU
Needs: WR,DB,OL,DL
After his performance in the Fiesta Bowl, some reactionary observes may believe Oklahoma State's dynamic receiver Justin Blackmon makes more sense here and USC's Matt Khalil would be the player St. Louis hoped Jason Smith would be. On the other hand, the Rams secondary is unarguably the worst in football. I have Claiborne as the #3 player in the the draft and he may actually be a better cover corner than former LSU star Patrick Peterson (although Peterson was a better athlete). Tryann Mathieu is the headline-grabber in Baton Rouge, but Claiborne is an elite cover corner and in the NFC, with elite offensive skill players, you have to have defenders to match.

3.) Minnesota Vikings (3-13) Matt Khalil OT USC
Needs: OL,DB,WR,DT
Minnesota is in perfect position with the third pick because if the Rams do take Claiborne, the Vikings can take Khalil, or the other way around. Should the Rams take Blackmon, Minnesota would have its pick here and may take Khalil even if Claiborne is on the board. The Vikings offensive line has fallen into disarray on the edges and Khalil is the kind of nimble athlete needed to be an NFL left tackle. Christian Ponder hasn't had time to prove his worth as a franchise signal-caller, but Khalil could be a cornerstone at left tackle to protest whomever the Vikings put under center.

4.) Cleveland Browns (4-12) Trent Richardson RB Alabama
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB,RB
Only two players really make sense here: Richardson or Blackmon. Colt McCoy's uneven performance in his young career could cause the Browns to pick Baylor's sensational junior QB Robert Griffin III, but Richardson is the kind of workhorse back suited for football in Ohio. Richardson is a physical back between the tackles, but is excellent in the screen game and has enough speed to be a homerun threat at the next level. Cleveland is in a position to take the best offensive skill player not named Andrew Luck in this draft. If their offense isn't better after making this pick, they did something really out of the box.

5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Needs: DB,LB,OL,WR
My guess is with a strong combine and offseason meetings, Blackmon won't fall much past the top 5 come April. On the other hand, Tampa Bay is undergoing an identity crisis after falling back to earth with a 4-12 season and is in desperate need of some toughness. Reiff is a mauler up front and with a bruising backfield in Tampa, the Bucs could give QB Josh Freeman the ability to play action and make plays outside the pocket. Again, I can't argue with Blackmon in this spot, but offensive line is a safer pick and the new coach of the Bucs can't afford to miss this high.

6.) Washington Redskins (5-11) Robert Griffin III QB Baylor
Needs: QB, DL,WR,CB,OL
A dream scenario for Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan. RG3 is the prototype of the new NFL QB: mobile, accurate and efficient. This is a guy who started the season having thrown more touchdowns than incompletions. Washington's defense is solid and the offense, when healthy, is serviceable but it's run by, gulp, Rex Grossman. Shanahan's offense is most effective with a quarterback who can go play action and roll out. Griffin is a magician on the edge, yet is a more polished thrower than Cam Newton was coming out of Auburn. That means the Redskins won't necessarily take a step back if they go with RG3 from Week 1.

7.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
Needs: WR,DE,RB,DB
In the "needs" section, Jacksonville's should probably read: 'WR,WR,WR,WR.' The Jaguars put out an all-time horrific group of receivers this year and by the end of the season were starting players they'd signed off other team's practice squads. Blaine Gabbert was a major disappointment as a rookie, but throwing to Blackmon could change that in a hurry. Blackmon is the type of big, physical receiver built to be a #1 receiver. If the Cowboy WR is off the board here, North Carolina's DE Quinton Coples is a natural fit.

8.) Carolina Panthers (6-10) Quinton Coples DE North Carolina
Needs: CB,WR,S, LB, DE
The last time Carolina picked a stud defensive end from North Carolina it worked out. When Julius Peppers left for Chicago, the Panthers lost one of the best defensive players in football and the team's defense hasn't been the same since. Cam Newton captained the biggest offensive turnaround in NFL history from an output standpoint and Coples could really boost an atrocious defense. Coples' game is more Justin Tuck than Julius Peppers as he can rush from both the tackle and end positions. His versatility and power more than makes up for his lack of elite quickness off the corner.

9.) Miami Dolphins (6-10) Jonathan Martin OT Stanford
Needs: LB,QB,TE,WR,S
Miami ended the season as one of the NFL's hottest teams, but with no coach and no certainty about who will be playing QB, their draft strategy is tough to predict. Martin might not even be the best offensive lineman on his own team (David DeCastro is a stud OG), but would be a bookend to the Dolphin's former #1 pick Jake Long. Matt Barkley's return to USC coupled with the Dolphin's own 'SC product Reggie Bush breaking out as a ball-carrier, should have the Dolphins looking to get better upfront. In a division full of weak front seven's, the Dolphins could be bullies upfront.

10.) Buffalo Bills (6-10) Devon Still DT Penn State

Needs: OLB,DL,OL,DB
In the case of the 2012 Buffalo Bills, they are who we thought they were, which is to say: not very good. The offense was explosive and should continue to be, but the defense remains a major question mark for the Bills. Rookie Marcell Dareus was a playmaker for the defense, notching 5.5 sacks from his nose tackle position, but the Bills finished 28th against the run and 30th in point allowed. I've been high on Devon Still all season and he could fit in nicely next to Dareus if they stick with the 3-4 or go back to the 4-3. Still has the height (6-5 307) to be an ideal fit outside as a 5 technique in a 34 system where he isn't asked to shoot gaps. The Bills' pass rush could use some help, but it's too early for a player like Courtney Upshaw. Another instinctive middle linebacker could also help the Bills, but Boston College's Luke Kuechly is very similar to current Bill Nick Barnett and you'd like to have a stronger ILB next to him.

11.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9) Luke Kuechly LB Boston College
Needs: WR,S,TE,OL,LB
Former Texas star Derrick Johnson finally broke out for the Chiefs this year in a season glimmering with hope in KC. When the Chiefs handed the Packers their only loss of the season, Kansas City showed the quality of their corners and their outside linebackers are terrors off the edge. In the AFC West though, you have to stop the run and the Chiefs could use a tackling machine like Kuechly to help bolster the front seven. The BC product is instinctive and an underrated athlete attacking downhill. By season's end, the Chiefs might have the best linebacking group in football.

12.) Seattle Seahawks (7-9) Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama
Needs: QB,DL,CB,WR,OL
In a few seasons, we may look back and say, "How did Seattle get Kirkpatrick outside of the top 10?" Kirkpatrick is just a junior for the Crimson Tide, but may be the most purely talented defensive back in the SEC and that's saying something. In Nick Saban's defense he is used in man coverage almost exclusively, flashing the ability to lock down the elite athletes he faces on a regular basis. The Seahawks overachieved this season, but lack elite talent on the edges both offensively and defensively. In a division with weak quarterbacks, Kirkpatrick could be a dynamic player for the Seahawks.

13.) Arizona Cardinals (8-8) David DeCastro G Stanford
Needs: OL,OLB,WR,DB
As disappointing as Kevin Kolb has been for the Cardinals, the offensive line struggled to keep him upright and couldn't consistently open holes for the running game. Investing in Darren Colledge in free agency last year doesn't prevent the Cardinals from taking the best interior lineman in the class. DeCastro isn't as strong as Georgia's Cordy Glenn, but is an adept blocker in both phases and is effective pulling on the corners. Despite Ken Whisenhunt's pedigree as an offensive coach who prides himself on winning in the trenches, that attitude hasn't translated to success on the field. DeCastro's ability to win his individual match-up upfront could help change that.

14.) Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Brandon Thompson DE Clemson
Needs: CB,OL,DL,S
Cowboy fans would love to see a big-name corner at this spot, but the reality is Alfonzo Dennard of Nebraska is a reach here and the top-tier corners will likely be off the board. The dirty little secret in Dallas is that the pass rush has eroded to the point that when Demarcus Ware is blocked, the Cowboys can't generate pressure. Part of the reason is their defensive line is just average. Jay Ratliff is a disruptive nose tackle, but the ends of the 'Boys' 3-4 defense are non-factors. Thompson is explosive off the snap and plays with good anchor in the middle. He flashes the ability to penetrate and make big plays, but doesn't shed blocks effectively enough to do it consistently. In Dallas, he wouldn't have to shoot gaps every play, but rather play his responsibility and open the field up for Dallas' linebackers.

15.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Courtney Upshaw LB Alabama
Needs: LB,OL,S,RB,WR
There's probably a cliche here about the "Dream Team" turning into a nightmare, but Philadelphia actually played well down the stretch and nearly sneaked into the playoffs. With a loaded roster, the Eagles played soft most of the season and Courtney Upshaw is the type of attitude adjustment Philly could use. While Upshaw's success was mostly at outside linebacker for the Crimson Tide, scouts believe he could play inside in the NFL because of his bruising style, strength and burst. Luke Kuechly would be an ideal fit for the Eagles to play "Mike" in their 43 scheme, but Upshaw could play all over the field for an Eagles defense that likes to be creative. They certainly need some brute force to put on that front seven.

16.) New York Jets (8-8) Malcolm Floyd WR Notre Dame
Needs: WR,OLB,S,DL,OL
The New York 'Hard Knock' Jets failed once again to live up to Rex Ryan's bombastic predictions in the preseason, due mostly to a wildly inconsistent offense. Mark Sanchez isn't a top-tier quarterback and probably never will be, but his receiving options this year were extremely limited. Floyd isn't the kind of player who is going to stretch the defense with his deep speed, but is a big play threat with his size and strength. He could be a poor man's Larry Fitzgerald at the next level and with the right pieces around him could be productive a la Jordy Nelson in Green Bay. Jeremy Kerley caught on for the Jets as the year came to a close and with Burress and Holmes around him, Floyd could be the kind of reliable receiver Sanchez needs for this Jets offense be successful.

17.) Bengals F/ Oakland Alfonzo Dennard CB Nebraska
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB
When Leon Hall went out for the Bengals, the defense struggled to make up the difference. Losing Johnathan Joseph to the Texans in free agency was already a big blow, leaving the otherwise stout defense thin in the back line. Dennard isn't on the same level as Claiborne and Kirkpatrick in terms of quickness and ball skills, but Dennard is a physical, strong corner who can play man or zone. The Husker corner isn't the ideal size for an NFL defensive back and lacks top-end speed, but is sudden in short spaces and will be better in zone coverage at the next level. A pick like this on an already solid defense is somewhat of a luxury, but the biggest weaknesses for the Bengals are youth and inexperience, a problem the draft won't fix. The talent is building in Cinci.

18.) San Diego Chargers (8-8) Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama
Needs: LB,CB,OL,WR
Every week I look at the Chargers and where they'll likely be picking in April, I target a linebacker for this San Diego defense. Since Shawne Merriman left, this linebacking group has lacked impact players, becoming a liability in a division predicated on running the ball. Hightower is a leader on one of the best defenses in college football. Hightower has started his freshman year in Tuscaloosa and had a stand-out year for the Tide in 2011, finishing with 81 tackles, 9.5 for loss while being the quarterback of the defense making the calls at the line. Hightower is huge for an inside linebacker (6-4 260) and strong enough to take on NFL guards at the point of attack, but mobile enough to go sideline to sideline. Think Rolando McClain without the crazy.

19.) Chicago Bears (8-8) Kendall Wright WR Baylor
Needs: OL,WR,TE,CB,LB
Chicago went from a legitimate threat to the Packers in the NFC to a minor league team after Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down with injury. Even with them, the Bears lack a go-to receiver and even though Kendall Wright lacks ideal size for a #1 receiver, remember that Wright is built nearly identically to division rival Greg Jennings. Wright doesn't pluck the ball the way Jennings does, but the Baylor receiver is similarly explosive with the ball after the catch and will make difficult catches down the sidelines. Wright would allow the Bears to be more creative with how they use Devin Hester, not to mention limiting his snaps to keep him fresh for the return game.

20.) Tennessee Titans (9-7) Melvin Ingram DE South Carolina
Needs: WR,DL,TE,OL

Derrick Morgan has been an utter disappointment for the Titans who really miss Jason Babin. In the AFC South, generating pressure on the quarterback is a necessity and the Titans don't do it consistently. Ingram has been shooting up draft boards as the season has gone on and the South Carolina defense has improved. Surrounded by elite talent, Ingram has been the key disruptor for the Gamecocks and has played end, tackle and stand-up end. The Titans may opt to grab Jack Locker a weapon like Dwayne Allen, but having Kendall Wright fall is probably what Tennessee would prefer so they can pair him with Kenny Britt.

21.) Denver Broncos (8-8) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Needs: WR,DB,DT,RB
Tebow time would probably be sooner if Denver had someone, anyone, to catch the ball. Dwayne Allen is a rare blend of size, speed and power that few in the NFL possess. He can more than hold his own as an in-line blocker, but is also dangerous in the passing game. His game isn't quite Jimmy Graham as a match-up problem, but compares favorably to a player like Heath Miller who could excel against linebackers in man coverage, plus Allen can find the open seams in zones for big plays. A safety like Mark Barron from Alabama would be a welcome addition to the secondary as well.

22.)New York Giants (9-7) Zach Brown LB North Carolina
Needs: OL,CB,LB,RB
The players New York can trot out on their front four give offensive coordinators the shakes, but behind them are a group of below average linebackers who are either out of position or over their heads.Giant defensive backs are nothing to write home about either, but Brown is a much better value here than reaching for a player like Janoris Jenkins from North Alabama. Brown's coaches say he can run a sub 4.3 40 and has the school record for the indoor 60-meter dash. The physicality of the Giants' current front four should mask the lack of power Brown plays with, but his quickness would be an asset both in coverage and as a pass-rusher.

23.) Cincinnati Bengals (9-7) Whitney Mercilus DE Illinois
Needs: S,G,RB,WR,CB

Another luxury pick at this point for the Bengals given that Cinci already has a really good defense and a maturing offense. Andy Dalton is a quality starter and A.J. Green is special at wide receiver. Cinci generates pressure from every position in the front four, but doesn't have an edge rusher you truly fear. Mercilus was true to his name when it came to handling opposing offenses. The Illini junior lead the nation in sacks and lived in opponent backfields. Mercilus isn't a finished product in terms of technique and would likely need to add strength to anchor as a 4-3 for Cinci, but in terms of pure pass-rush talent, there are few better than Mercilus in this year's class.

24.) Browns F/ Atlanta Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Needs: WR,OL,S,QB
Remember what I said about Colt McCoy not being the problem? The difference here is value. Jones is the #17 rated player on the board and would be ranked well ahead of Colt McCoy had they come out in the same draft class. Jones' play for the Sooners dropped off after Ryan Broyles was lost for the year with a knee injury, but Jones was widely considered the #2 QB in this draft before the season began. Jones is a superior pure thrower to McCoy and has a stronger arm to battle the brutal winters in the AFC North. South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery would be an upgrade at receiver, but is similar to the group of big, slow receivers the Browns already have. Cleveland could reach for a lineman here as well.

25.) Detroit Lions (10-6) Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Needs: OL,DB,LB,WR
Despite the Lions' improved play in the secondary, at least from a turnover standpoint, Detroit still plays in a division with Aaron Rodgers and a conference with Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan all battling in the playoffs this season. That doesn't even account for players like Tony Romo and Mike Vick who can shred defenses. Detroit's passing defense, for as disruptive as their front can be, still ranks 22nd in the league. That means the back end isn't getting it done. Once a top-tier prospect, Jenkins left the Florida program in disgrace. However, the former gator is sudden in and out of breaks, has tremendous ball skills and good instincts. Against the spread offenses in the NFC, even if Jenkins is only a third corner on the Lions, he could play a vital role in shoring up this defense.

26.) Houston Texans (10-6) Mark Barron S Alabama
Needs: S,WR,OL,DL
A group of young defenders helped the Texans finally break through and get to the playoffs. Even without Mario Williams for much of the season, the Texans were a top 5 defense in every major category. It certainly didn't hurt playing the Colts and Jaguars with their anemic offenses twice this season. Johnathan Joseph turned around a historically bad passing defense, but the safeties in Houston leave plenty to be desired. Barron can play at the line of scrimmage as an eighth defender in the box, but has the speed to play deep as well. The All-American safety could step in for the Texans and start from Week 1.

27.) Baltimore Ravens (12-4) Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
Needs: OL,OLB,DB,DL
With Torrey Smith stretching the field and Ray Rice carrying the load, the Baltimore offense can be explosive. Can be. Unfortunately, it isn't always and part of the reason is that the offensive line has been inconsistent all season. Michael Oher seems to have regressed and the Ravens haven't found a suitable tackle opposite him. Sanders is a bit undersized to anchor outside, but with the edge rushers in 3-4 defenses terrorizing the AFC, the Ravens could use a young, athletic tackle to help protect Joe Flacco. The bulk of Cordy Glenn may fit the physical AFC South a little better, but Sanders can add weight whereas Glenn won't become appreciably more agile.

28.) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) Cordy Glenn OL Georgia
Needs: OL,RB,DB,LB
When they're healthy, the Steelers are the most balanced team in the NFL with talent in every phase of the game. Injuries and age have held Pittsburgh back and handcuffed their chances in the AFC. Glenn is a monster of a man with the size to play guard or tackle in the NFL. Unfortunately that size makes him rigid at times and he has a tendency to be lazy with his technique, reaching rather than bending and moving laterally to get better position. On the other hand, you can't teach size and Glenn has that in spades. If you put him out there against the Steeler front 7 in practice every day, he could improve in a hurry.

29.) New Orleans Saints (13-3) Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State
Needs: DL,LB,DB,OL
Offensively, the Saints are pretty much a juggernaut. You can't put eight in the box to stop the run, but if you rush three and play coverage, Drew Brees will murder you. On defense, though, there are plenty of holes. Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers are on one-year contracts on the interior and Sedrick Ellis has been disappointing. Fletcher Cox is a fast-rising prospect who has been a force in the SEC. Cox isn't overly agile, but anchors well and can push the pocket upfront. He's also athletic enough to develop a go-to pass-rush move and be a disruptor for New Orleans.

30.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3) Alshon Jeffery WR South Carolina
Needs: CB,S,OLB,OT
Jim Harbaugh's turnaround of San Francisco has been nothing short of astounding and the physicality of the 49ers front on both sides of the ball is unmatched in the NFL. On the other hand, skill players on the edge are few and far between which have lead to struggles in the red zone for this 49er offense. Ashlson Jeffery can change that with his size (6-4 232) and leaping ability. His Hail Mary catch against Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl is a perfect example of his skill set. Not overly sudden or explosive as an athlete, Jeffery would be a solid compliment to Crabtree on the other side with Ted Ginn Jr. in the slot.

31.) New England Patriots (13-3) Andre Branch DE Clemson
Needs: DE,S,LB,DL,CB
If New England could stop anyone, it might have been chasing perfection along with Green Bay. Both the Patriots and the Packers threatened to be historically bad when it come to defending the pass (the Packers actually wound up being the worst team in history by total yards). Andre Carter had a career renaissance statistically, but was hurt and inconsistent. Branch isn't an ideal 4-3 end, but the Patriots switched back to the 43 front due in large part to the lack of explosive edge rushers on the roster. Branch doesn't anchor well on the edge, but can fly off the corner and create the pressure New England needs to cover the holes in a weak secondary. There are a few quality running backs here with value, but the needs on defense are much worse.

32.) Green Bay Packers (15-1) Ronnell Lewis OLB Oklahoma
Needs: DL,OL,CB,LB
What do you give to a team that has everything? Well, almost everything. The Packers' defense took a big step backward this season after being one of the best in the league last season. Green Bay hasn't been able to get a consistent rush opposite Clay Matthews and it has given opposing quarterbacks too much time to find receivers open against the best ball-hawking secondary in football (by a wide margin). Ronnell Lewis is hardly a finished product, but is the kind of hard-hitting freak athlete who can be an immediate special teams ace (important for Ted Thompson) and situational rusher off the edge for the Pack.

2008 NFL Season Preview: AFC North

2008-07-30T12:06:00.001-07:00

Offense: The surprise offense of 2007 will be back and better than ever in 2008. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. form one of the best WR/TE combo’s in the NFL. Adding speedy Dontè Stallworth should only open up the field for Edwards and Winslow giving QB Derek Anderson options everywhere.

Teams have had a full off-season to study this offense, particularly Anderson. Defensive coordinators get paid to make adjustments on guys like him, but they tried on Tony Romo last season and it didn’t appear to work too well. The Browns have too many offensive weapons for his play to decline significantly. I kept hearing that Jamal Lewis had found the fountain of youth last season while he rushed for 1300+ yards and 9 scores. Lewis is actually only 28 going on 29 in August. A fresh start in Cleveland has certainly rejuvenated Lewis, but upgrades have turn a sub-par offensive line into one of the better groups in the AFC.

With defenses pinning their ears back to get to Anderson, linebackers chasing Kellen Winslow down the scheme, and Edwards/Stallworth running deep on corners and safeties, Lewis’ job will be to pound the b all early to set the tone, then salt the game away against a tired defense. It worked last season to the tune of 10 wins. With an even better offense this season, expect more of the same.

Defense: Cleveland was among the most active off-season movers acquiring the aforementioned Stallworth and trading for DT’s Corey Williams and Shaun Rogers. Corey Williams is ideal for the DE position in the 3-4 defense and has the potential to be an 8-10 sack player at that position. Rogers on the other hand remains an unknown. If he commits himself and plays hard every down, he can be a force at the nose against the run and pass. ILB’s Andra Davis and D’Qwell Jackson could both be 100 tackle players with Williams and Rogers eating up blockers in the middle.

The Brown’s defensive backfield will be filled with “could be’s” in 2008. Second-year corners Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald have tremendous potential and talent, but neither have started for a full-season. Veteran safeties might mask the inexperience on the outside, but Brodney Pool and Sean Jones have a combined three full seasons of experience at safety.

All you need to know about the Browns passing defense is watch the film of the 51-45 victory over the Bengals last season in which they gave up 401 yards and 6 touchdowns to Carson Palmer and that offense. To be fair, things did get better in Cleveland after the Cinci game the Browns gave up just two 300 yard passing games and kept their opponents under 200 yards passing in the final 3 weeks of the season.

Overall: Romeo Crennell’s bread and butters is defense. The 2008 off-season reflected that and fans in the Dog Pound hope it pays dividends. The Browns should score enough points to win every week, but with a young defense there will be hiccups along the way. The schedule is tough and many of the big games will be on the road for the Browns. Another 10-6 record could be on the way, this time earning the Browns a wild card birth, likely the 5 seed.

Ravens (2007 Record 5-11)

Offense: Optimism abounds with offensive specialist Cam Cameron on board in Baltimore giving the Ravens the kind of mind on offense they already have on defense in Rex Ryan. BUT who is going to run that offense? In five seasons with the Ravens former first-round pick Kyle Boller has a 56.9% completion percentage and a passer rating of 71.9. Troy Smith quarterbacked the Ravens all the way to the Dolphin’s first and only win of the season. Oh, and Joe Flacco has never taken a snap in the NFL. Cam Cameron may be one of the best offensive minds in football, but he’s no magician.

Derrick Mason was the lone bright spot for the Ravens passing attack last year catching 103 passes, but at 34 years old, there might not be much left in the tank. It doesn’t help that no one beyond him creates much of any threat to a defense.

Willis McGahee should get the bulk of the work for this offense in 2008. Coming off a 1207 yard season in 15 games, the former Miami Hurricane stand-out will have to shoulder the load while the quarterbacks figure out their lives. It won’t help losing sure Hall of Fame tackle Johnathan Ogden on the left side, or starting two second year players Marshall Yanda and Benn Grubbs on the right side.

Suffice it to say if Cam Cameron can get this offense to score points, he deserves another head coaching job as soon as possible.

Defense: The backbone of this Baltimore team has been it’s defense. It won them a Super Bowl and almost allowed them to steal a game from the Patriots last season. However, corners Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle are both on the wrong side of 30 and Rolle in particular appears to be slowing considerably. Beyond those two, pickings are slim at corner.

Luckily the Ravens still have Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Bart Scott. If you can find three linebackers and a safety who create more havoc in both the running and passing game let me know. Ed Reed is the best safety in football while Scott and Suggs represent an elite rush tandem. Plus, Ray Lewis, even at 33, is still Ray Lewis.

While this defense hasn’t gotten any better, it certainly shouldn’t get much worse. That will mean once again the defense must carry the Ravens if they expect to win.

Overall: The schedule is absolutely brutal for the Ravens with trips to Indy, the Giants, and Dallas as well as visits from Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington, and Tennessee. That does not even take into account two a piece against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cinci.

Sorry Baltimore fans, things may be more to your liking on the sidelines and in the press box with the coaching staff, but the team on the field is worse in 2008. Even a little Cameron miracle working will make this team a 4-12 team.

Steelers (2007 Record 10-6)

Offense: Big Ben’s bounce-back season turned the Steeler’s identity from a smash-mouth running team into somewhat of a finesse, pass-first offense. The guy was unbelievable with 32 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions and a passing rating of 104.1.

The quarterback was not the problem last season for Pittsburgh and does not appear to be an imminent concern this season either. The offensive line averages just under two years of starting experience per player with starters Darnell Stapleton and Chris Kemoeatu having exactly zero full seasons as starters. That does not bode well for a team who often struggled to protect Ben Roethlisberger on passing downs last seasons even with Pro Bowler Alan Faneca at guard. With Fanaca playing for the Jets.

A healthy Willie Parker and explosive rookie Rashard Mendenhall give the Steelers on of the best 1-2 punch backfields in football and hopefully relieve some of the pressure on the young offensive line. Developing offensive lineman tend to learn pass-blocking techniques slowly, so expect to see a little more Steelers smash-mouth from this offense as their line comes together.

Defense: Perhaps the biggest surprise for the Steelers in 2007 was the relatively poor play of the Pittsburgh defense. While a 9.2 point per game average hardly looks underwhelming, the fact of the matter is the Steelers gave up 20 or more points in each of their last four games and were absolutely obliterated by the Jags running game. Words like “soft” and “finesse” are not part of the vocabulary in Steelertown, but they were being whispered about this team late last year after the Patriots gave them an old-fashioned butt-kicking at Heinz Field.

The basic issue is the secondary. Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend are physical corners who can jam receivers and support the run. Troy Polamalu plays safety like a linebacker, but no one will accuse him of being Ed Reed as a ball-hawking safety. The Steelers D relies on their outstanding pass-rush to force quarterbacks into bad decisions. Blitz linebackers, jam receivers, and stunt defensive line to throw off timing and rhythm and Peyton Manning is having nightmares already.

However, the Patriots showed that if you take your time, pass on running downs, run on passing downs and any other down you can, this defense is made to get after the quarterback, not stop the run or protect deep. Teams that can do both will continue to give the Steelers problems even with an outstanding draft class and talented players.

Overall: Young head coach Mike Tomlin didn’t make too many rookie mistakes last season as he lead the Steelers to the playoffs. However, the division has gotten better and the AFC remains extremely competitive. Another 10-6 season and division crown look like excellent possibilities.

I have the Steelers as the division winner and the Browns as the wild card with the same record by virtue of the Steelers superior projected record against like opponents. With a split of head to heads and the same record against the division, common game Win/Loss differential would be the tie-breaker.

NFL Season Preview: AFC West

2008-07-10T11:51:00.000-07:00

Denver Broncos (7-9)

Offense: The 2007 Denver Broncos offense was not unlike any other Mike Shanahan teams; establish that potent zone running game, and work play action off of the that. The problem was for an offense ranking 9th in rushing and 13th in passing, Denver finished a disappointing 21st in points scored. To make matters worse in 2008, the Broncos big-play receiver Javon Walker will be wearing the silver and black. Brandon Marshall had a breakout season in 2007 and the Broncos put some quality back ups behind him with Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson, and Sammie Parker filling out the receiving core with Brandon Stokely and one of my favorite receivers in the draft Eddie Royal. Rookie OT Ryan Clady could also help out right away protecting Cutler, as Clady was the premier pass-blocker in this year's draft class.

With Jay Cutler's continued emergence as a quarterback, the biggest issue facing the Broncos is at the running back position. We know Shanahan has a history of just putting anybody back there and finding a 1,000 yard rusher but Selvin Young and Michael Pittman aren't exactly Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson. Rookie Ryan Torian from Arizona State has impressed so far, but it will take some serious Shanahan running back magic to improve the scoring totals of this offense.

Defense: The ineptitude of the Broncos rush defense last season cannot be understated. Denver finished 30th in rush defense and despite the having one of the best corner tandems in the league, finished 28th in points allowed. Subtract starting safety Nick Ferguson and linebacker Ian Gold and the Broncos were in trouble. The Broncos added three safeties in the off-season to supplement their outstanding corner duo, including former charger starter Marlon McCree and the freakishly athletic rookie Josh Barrett from Arizona State.

Otherwise, this defense has not improved significantly upfront after failing to acquire Shuan Rogers or Corey Williams in the off-season. The Broncos did trade for former top 5 pick DeWayne Robertson from the Jets, but he has never proven to be anything but an average tackle inside. Former Lion Boss Bailey was brought in presumably to fill in for Ian Gold, but Bailey is a career underachiever as well. Jim Bates and Bob Slowick are both excellent defensive coaches, but this defense possesses little to no toughness inside and outside of Bailey and Bly on the outside, the defensive backfield has question marks

Outlook: The schedule includes playoff teams 4 of the first 7 weeks plus a visit from the Saints in week three. Things get much easier in the second half, but an 8-8 season looks most likely for the Broncos in a vicious AFC.

San Diego Chargers (11-5)

Offense: Even though Phillip Rivers appeared to have regressed in 2007, LaDanian Tomlinson was the best player in the NFL and took the Chargers all the way to the AFC Championship game. Unfortunately for San Diego, they lost FB Lorenzo Neal and back up RB Michael Turner this offseason from a rushing attack that ranked 7th in the league this past season. Adding H-Back Jacob Hester and UTEP running back Marcus Thomas in the draft fill the spots of the departed Turner and Neal, but as rookies, who knows how productive they can be on a team reaady to compete right now?

For a passing game that ranked a paultry 26th in the NFL last-season, a full season of Chris Chambers and a healthy Antonio Gates should certainly help. Vincent Jackson also came on strong late in the year showing the potential to be an excellent possession compliment to Chambers. With Gates occupying the middle of the field and the seam, expect Jackson to be even more productive this season. Ultimately though, the offense is predicated on Phillip Rivers taking care of the ball. In his first season at the helm, Rivers helped people forget Drew Brees was having an MVP type season in New Orleans. Last year, people wondered if the Chargers had made the right choice. The former N.C. State QB has all the skills, and now has two AFC Championship games under his belt. Luckily for Rivers, he still has the best offensive weapon in football behind him in the backfield.

Defense: Corner Antonio Cromartie has rewarded the Chargers for taking a risk on him when they drafted him in 2006 coming off major knee surgery. That is an understatement. Cromartie lead the league in picks last year and has quickly become one of the elite talents at the corner position with outstanding hands to go with a long frame and quick feet. Cromartie along with Quinten Jammer create a corner tandem that be matched in the AFC only by their rivals in Denver. Gone are CB Drayton Florence and S Marlon McCree as well as DE Shane Olivea. However, Eric Weddle played well late in the year making McCree expendable and when you have Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips rushing the passer, you don't need to have as much depth on the outside. Antoine Cason was drafted in the first round out of Arizona to replace Florence and will give the Chargers another big, physical corner who will fit perfectly into that aggressive, dominating Charger D. With all the young quarterback in the AFC West, expect the Charger defense to continue their streak of terrorizing quarterbacks.

Outlook: NFL Fans will be happy to know both New England and Indianapolis are on the schedule against the Chargers. San Diego fans will be happy to know both games in Qualcom Stadium. If Phillip Rivers plays closer to the 2006 version, the Chargers will be at least 13-3.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

Offense: Questions about Larry Johnson's ability to recover from the pounding he took in 2006 were answered. He can't do it. Head Coach Herm Edwards overworked Johnson and as a result, the running game was not as effective in 2007. With an off-season of recovery, and the talented rookie Jamaal Charles to spell LJ, the Chiefs backfield looks solidifed. Add rookie G/T Brandon Albert and Kansas City looks prepared to once against play the kind of rugged running game that has been then M.O. seemingly forever.

The biggest question mark remains are quarterback. Last year it we saw both Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle and neither looked particularly good. There was some speculation that the Chiefs highly coveted Matt Ryan, but the Falcons ended any thoughts of that when they took him two spots earlier. Whoever is behind center will have a star in the making with Dwane Bowe, plus an underrated rookie, Missouri's William Frankling who has outstanding speed. Tony Gonzalez is still Tony Gonzalez and this offense should be back on track if they can make a decision on a QB.

Defense: Defensively, the Chiefs are probably the most improved team in the division. That is good news after finishing 28th against the run last season. Enter Glenn Dorsey, arguably the top prospect in the draft, but certainly the best defensive prospect if healthy. He is an immediate impact player along the defensive interior in the Warren Sapp mold. Virginia Tech CB Brandon Flowers could be asked to fill Ty Law's corner spot, and Flowers should be more than capable against a relatively weak crop of receivers in the West. K.C. also brought in Atlanta's LB DeMarrio Williams to inject some youth and athleticism in their linebacking group. The Chiefs defense was highly underrated last season, particuarly against the pass finishing 5th in passing yards. Flowers and rookie S DaJuan Morgan should add toughness to a poor tackling defensive backfield. Losing Jared Allen is a major blow, but the Chiefs are building around their young talent, and with Hali and Dorsey upfront, the defensive line will be solid this season.

Outlook: Despite being one of the winners from the draft, too many questions remain at QB. Limited options are receiver only compound that issue. A poor tackling defense has gotten better, but it will certainly not be enough to compete for the division or the playoffs. Add in an unbelievably tough schedule and the Chiefs will be lucky to escape 2008 with 5-11 record.

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

Offense: This is JeMarcus Russell's team now, but if you look at the Raider's stable of running backs, you may get the feeling Lane Kiffin and Al Davis aren't sold Russell is quite ready to carry this offense. Adding Arkansas rookie Darren McFadden was a flashy pick, and perhaps a genius one. If McFadden is anything close to what he was in the SEC, the Raiders will have made the right choice. Anything less, and the Raiders will have screwed it up again. The Raiders offensive line remains spotty despite the addition of Kwame Harris. Where will the carries go? Justin Fargas was paid like "the guy" but McFadden, LaMont Jordan, and Michael Bush are all fully capable. The Raiders have a gazillion backs, all of whom will want the ball. That is a situation worth keeping an eye, to see if Lane Kiffin can keep all his rushers happy.

Adding Javon Walker and Drew Carter on the outside to help Russell was key. Javon Walker can spread a defense assuming his knees are ok and he stays away from Vegas whenever possible. Russell has a huge arm and will love throwing deep to Curry and Walker, particularly off play-action with those aforementioned running backs. Raider fans will tell you that Russell and McFadden make this team extremely dangerous in a weak AFC West. They may be right eventually, but it is doubtful this offense will be significantly better in 2008.

Defense: The key for the Raiders defense this off-season was keeping their best corner Nnamdi Asomugha. Behind him, the Raiders defensive backfield is very young and potentially vulnerable. That is part of the reason they brought in Giants safety Gibril Wilson to play next to Michael Huff, an improving former Texas DB with tremendous talent. Bringing in healthy Fabian Washington and speedy rookie Tyvon Branch will help supplement Asomugha and give the Raiders a solid defensive backfield. Losing DT Tyler Brayton and DE Chris Clemons to free agency hurts up front, but they brought in Kalimba Edwards to replace Clemons as a pass rusher. The offseason saw plenty of spending, but no impact player on defense from a unit that finished 31st against the run and 26th in points. Barring an unforeseen improvement by the personnel already in Oakland, there are simply too many solid rushing teams in the division for the Raiders to have a realistic chance at a playoff birth.

Outlook: I keep hearing that suddenly the Raiders are a playoff team. Not only is that ridiculous but barring a slew of injuries in the division, a .500 record seems out of reach with a defense that can't stop the run, and an offense without cohesion or identity. The schedule is tough once again with trips to New Orleans, Buffalo, and Tampa, plus the division games. Unless JeMarcus Russell becomes a solid QB from week 1, the Raiders could be headed to another 4-12 season. (I fully expect to hear about this from all you excited members of Raider Nation)

NFL Draft Preview: Final Mock Draft

2008-04-23T17:48:00.001-07:00

Well, the 2008 draft will shortly be upon us and my mock is already 1-1...well it wasn't that hard given that Jake Long signed earlier this week with the Dolphins to be the #1 pick. As usual, names are all over draft boards and late movement will cause controversy in a number of first round places. Virginia offensive lineman Brandon Albert has been rocketing up draft boards and teams believe he can play guard or tackle. Florida DE Derrick Harvey seems to be making a comeback into the top 15 as well. This mock combines what I believe will happen and what I believe ought to happen. Certainly if I believe something will happen that I think shouldn't, I will articulate, or at least attempt to do so, as we go. I'm pumped, I hope you are too!

1. Miami Dolphins (1-15) Needs: OL,DL,DB,WR,RB
Jake Long OT Michigan
Before Bill Parcells put together the staff here Glenn Dorsey seemed like the favorite, now we have learned Jake Long was the Dolphins #1 priority from day one, with Chris Long a close second. Jake Long becomes the highest paid offensive lineman in the game without ever having played a down (What a world it must be). Long will likely play left tackle for the Dolphins protecting the blindside of whoever it is calling the plays for the 'Phins, more on that in a minute. Long has everything you could ask for from a franchise tackle from a physical standpoint, but he will have to learn quickly how to deal with speed rushers at the NFL level. Luckily, the AFC East does not have many top-tier outside rushers and Long will certainly benefit from a lighter schedule.

2. St. Louis Rams (3-13) Needs: OT,LB,DB,WR,QB
Glenn Dorsey DT LSU
The Rams could really shake up the top of this draft. The New Orleans Saints desperately would like to get their hands on either Dorsey or USC's Sedrick Ellis and have been talking with the Rams about doing exactly that. The Falcons would love to be able to pass on Matt Ryan, get Dorsey and then take Brian Brohm (Of whom they are particularly fond). However, the only way that seems likely is if they can get into this second spot. Regardless of who is picking at #2, Glenn Dorsey will almost certainly be the pick. The Rams need an end more than a tackle, but drafting Dorsey would mean they could move last year's first round pick Adam Carriker to his natural end position. Whichever team lands the top defensive player in the draft will be getting one of the most disruptive forces in college football in recent memory...assuming he can stay healthy.

3. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Matt Ryan QB Boston College
Matt Ryan is at least third on the list of players the Falcons would prefer to draft here with J.Long and Dorsey topping the list. If the Falcons could convince the Rams to flip flop picks for a third rounder or something similar, the Falcons could land Dorsey and the Rams could get Long, leaving Carriker to play DT. That seems like a best-case scenario for both teams, but it is the NFL and things almost never make that much sense. Here, the Falcons get the top quarterback on the board and a face of the franchise. And guess what? The team Matt Ryan will go to has a stable of backs, none of whom are talented enough to be featured, to go along with an average set of receivers, and an OK offensive line...sound familiar? BC football fans are nodding.

4. Oakland Raiders (4-12) Needs: OL,WR,SS,DL,DB
Darren McFadden RB Arkansas
The smart bet seems like to draft Chris Long at a position of need, taking the son of a former Raider great and immediately endearing yourselves to your fan base once again. Not Al Davis.
While this may aggravate old school Raider fans, to be fair, Chris Long does not need the added pressure of playing for the same team his father made a Hall of Fame career with. Instead, the silver and black will get this draft's most explosive player and a potential game changer. It is not as though the Raiders already paid Justin Fargas to be their franchise running back, or have Dominic Rhodes, Lamont Jordan, or Michael Bush on their roster...nope that is exactly what they have. This would be the first really bonehead play of the first round and surprise surprise, Al Davis and co. will likely make it.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-12) Needs: OL,DL,WR,QB,DB
Chris Long DE Virginia
I keep hearing Brandon Albert and I simply do not see it, particularly if Sedrick Ellis and/or Chris Long are still on the board. The Chiefs fell in love with Ellis at the Senior Bowl and would love to add him to their roster. However, having trading Jared Allen, defensive end suddenly becomes a huge position of weakness and Long happens to also be the best player on the board. Long and Allen have similar games and ironically the Chiefs will likely have to pay Long similar money. As silly as it seems to trade your best defensive end and then draft one in the top 5, the Chiefs will not be able to pass up the chance to draft the best pass rusher in the draft. The offensive tackles in the AFC West are weak and Long could have a monster season for the Chiefs.

6. New York Jets (4-12) Needs: DL,WR,CB,QB,TE
Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State
The Jets would love to get McFadden here, but short of a trade into the top 3, the Jets will have to settle for the defensive player with the highest ceiling in this draft. New York loves this former Buckeye and Gholston probably sits at #2 on the Jets wish list. The former Buckeye has been compared to hybrids like DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman with his outstanding athletic tools and physical presence. Jake Long will not like to see this pick by the Jets, as Gholston was one of the only players in college able to give Long trouble. This pairing would set up awesome match ups and would give us a reason to watch a Jets Dolphins game.

7. New England Patriots F/ 49ers Needs: CB,LB,S,RB,OL
Keith Rivers LB USC
Fans in the Northeast were salivating at the idea of going undefeated and then having the opportunity to draft a player like Darren McFadden. After wiping the taste of Super Bowl defeat out of their mouths, Patriots fans must deal with the reality that their defense has aged considerably and they lost two of the most dependable players in their secondary. The linebacking core could use an overhaul and Keith Rivers would be a perfect fit. Rivers plays aggressive, smart football and has the kind of versatility and instincts Bill Belichik loves. A corner would be nice, but Leodis McKelvin has been falling back down draft boards to some degree and people seem to be acknowledging what I have been saying for weeks that Rivers is worthy of a top 10 pick.

8. Baltimore Ravens (5-11) Needs: QB,CB,WR, OL,LB
Sedrick Ellis DT USC
The Cincinnati Bengals really have to hope the Ravens try to trade up to get Matt Ryan. A trade to get into the 3 spot with the Falcons would allow Atlanta to draft Sedrick Ellis and then Brian Brohm while allowing the Ravens to get Ryan. Again, this would make far too much sense. Instead, the Ravens will likely miss out on Matt Ryan and draft the best player available. Leodis McKelvin would be a definite possibility here as well, but the Ravens like to draft the best player available and Ellis represents top five talent. Ellis may not 3-4 nose tackle and could move to end in the Ravens scheme. Rex Ryan will love to have this former Trojan because he can flat out wreck havoc in opposing backfields.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) Needs: LB,DL,OL,WR,S
Ryan Clady OT Boise State
This would be truly worst-cast for the Bengals with Rivers and Ellis both gone. Derrick Harvey would be considered, but no other player at a position of need deserves to go this high. Instead, the Bengals will try to keep Carson Palmer upright, even if we do not yet know if he'll be upright throwing to Ocho Cinco or not. Clady has the potential to be the top pass-blocker in this draft and with the tackles for the Bengals getting up in age, an upgrade here with the second best offensive lineman in the draft will be a welcome addition. Brandon Albert may draw consideration because of his ability to play either guard or tackle, however I do not see him as a top 10 pick.

10. New Orleans Saints (7-9) Needs: DT,CB,TE,S,WR
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Linebacker, defensive tackle, and corner were the top needs entering the off-season and the Saints addressed those needs acquiring Jonathan Vilma from the Jets, signed Dan Morgan form the Panthers and Randall Gay from the Patriots. Defensive tackle remains a question and for that reason, the Saints have been actively trying to move into a position to take either Sedrick Ellis or Glenn Dorsey. Unless they can get into the top 8, that seems particularly unlikely. A flip flop with the Ravens could land the Saints with Ellis and the Ravens with McKelvin, an advantageous move for both teams, but that move would only happen if Ellis remained on the board at #8 and Matt Ryan had been picked. As a result, the Saints draft the top corner in the draft to play opposite Mike McKenzie. Randall Gay really should be playing the nickel corner spot like he did with New England, which makes the #2 corner spot a perfect place for McKelvin. The Saints need a play maker in the secondary and McKelvin has that kind of dynamic ability. He could also take some pressure off of Reggie Bush in the return game.

11. Buffalo Bills (7-9) Needs: WR,TE,CB,DE,LB
Devin Thomas WR Michigan State
Last year, the Bills made it no secret they wanted Cal RB Marshawn Lynch and were willing to reach for him at #12. Buffalo desperately wants a big, physical receiver opposite Lee Evans and while Thomas does not have the physical stature of a Limas Sweed or Malcolm Kelly, at 6-2 215 pounds a guy who can run a 4.4 40 can really help an offense at the bottom in the league in just about every passing related category. A corner like Mike Jenkins or Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie or DE Derrick Harvey will be considered here as well, but the Bills really like Thomas and believe he is the best player to help their offense. Thomas and Evans will form a dynamic former Big Ten duo and give Trent Edwards more weapons in the passing game.

12. Denver Broncos (7-9) Needs: DT,LB,OL,WR,CB
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
If this scenario were to play out, the Broncos would like have a difficult choice. The Broncos are rumor to believe Vanderbilt OT Chris Williams to be the #2 tackle in the draft even ahead of Ryan Clady. However, as I've stated, Brandon Albert's stock has been soaring and the two headed monster at ESPN believe Albert could even be a top 5 pick. Mike Shanahan has a tendency to fall for players and draft them regardless of position (see Jay Cutler). Denver's run defense was atrocious last year and defensive tackle and linebacker represent much bigger needs. However, Jerod Mayo or Kentwan Balmer do not warrant consideration here at 12. If the Broncos decide not to go Williams, a running back like Mendenhall or Stewart could be an option. The Broncos seem to be very high on Stewart, a trade down to grab him later could even be a possibility if a team wants to move up to grab a Richard Mendenhall or Brandon Albert. Otherwise, Chris Williams seems like the odds-on pick here.

13. Carolina Panthers (7-9) Needs: WR,DL,QB,S,TE
Derrick Harvey DE Florida
Even before Kris Jenkins left for New York and Mike Rucker left for the golf course, defensive end was a big need for the Panthers. Julius Peppers had not been the same dominant player while Jenkins and Rucker have shown their age. Brandon Albert will look very tempting for a team with questions along the offensive line, but Harvey fills a bigger need on this defense. John Fox wants to get after the quarterback and with Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams already on offense, the defense needs a play maker more than the offense needs a guard. Derrick Harvey was one of the few players in college to give Jake Long problems and he will get a chance right away to try and make an impact rushing the passer. Harvey has tremendous talent and could make life for Julius Peppers much easier.

14. Chicago Bears (7-9) Needs: QB,G,T,RB,WR,S
Brandon Albert G/T Virginia
The only downside for the Bears getting Albert here is that they can't draft him twice. The Bears need a new running back and quarterback, but neither would be any good without some improvement upfront. The Bears need help at guard and tackle, and Olin Kruetz is not getting any younger at center. No quarterback warrants consideration here, but Richard Mendenhall would be a great fit particularly with his Illinois connection, however the Bears staff will likely be wary or drafting another running back in the first round with the way Cedric Benson has played. The Bears could look to move up to grab Matt Ryan, but Chicago brass has stated clearly that they are not looking for a quarterback in round one. That makes Brandon Albert, or the best offensive lineman available on their board the likely pick.

15. Detroit Lions (7-9) Needs: OL,DE,RB,TE,LB,DB
Richard Mendenhall RB Illinois
Offensive tackle and a rush end certainly represent bigger needs for the Lions, but with the Lions looking to emphasize the running game even more this year, the former Illini stud running back just makes too much sense. Mendenhall has the physical running style Rod Marinelli loves and the capabilities to hit the home run they have not had since Barry Sanders. Jeffrey Otah would make sense here to bolster the Lions offensive line situation, and it would be too high for Clemson DE Phillip Merling. Mendenhall has the highest value here and the Lions could take a cue from their division rival Vikings to draft an impact rookie running back.

16. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) Needs: OL,DL,LB,RB,CB
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida
Arizona would love to see Derrick Harvey or Keith Rivers to fall, but that seems highly unlikely. It now appears the Cards will take the best corner available to fill the void left when Antrel Rolle moved to safety. Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie out of Tennessee State could be the higher rated corner on the board in this spot and as a result, could be the selection. Jenkins is the more polished and physical corner, although both possess excellent athleticism and talent. Phillip Merling or Jonathan Stewart could also be considered here, but it may be too high for both. Jenkins will have his hands full trying to covering Tory Holt and Deion Branch in the West, but will be an upgrade for the Cardinals secondary and help out a lackluster pass-defense.

17. Kansas City Chiefs f/ Vikings Needs: OL,WR,CB,DL,QB
Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh
K.C. gets Minnesota's 17th pick here in the Jared Allen trade and will likely take the best tackle available. This massive Pittsburgh product would instantly provide some youth and talent to an aging offensive front. Both Brody Croyle/Damon Huard and Larry Johnson would love to see Otah in this spot. Otah could be a monster in the run game and has the potential to be a stud run blocker in the NFL. The Chiefs could draft a wide receiver here to go with Dwayne Bowe, or DRC to bolster their defensive backfield, but the needs along the offensive line are simply too much. Otah has the body and talent to be a rookie starter in the trenches and the Chiefs desperately need him.

18. Houston Texans (8-8) Needs: OL,DB,RB,WR,LB
Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie Tennessee State
The Texans will likely agonize over this decision with Jonathan Stewart still on the board as well. However, I believe they will decide not to add another running back with injury problems. DRC has unparalleled athletic talent and could be the kind of difference maker in the defensive backfield the Texans need. The Texans added Jacque Reeves in the off-season but still lack a premier talent in the secondary. Rodgers-Cromartie could play corner or safety, and the Texans could experiment using him in a number of positions. DRC's versatility will make him a steal here and assuming he can adjust to NFL defensive schemes, the Texans could be getting a premier play maker at 18.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) Needs: WR,S,OL,TE,LB
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Donovan McNabb may not like this pick and a player like Cal's DeSean Jackson would be a brilliant move here, giving the Eagles a receiver with return ability and big play capabilities. However, the Eagles prefer bigger receivers and feel as though they have bigger needs else where. Safety and offensive line could be more pressing issues, but with Otah gone and neither Arkansas State's Tyrelle Johnson nor Miami's Kenny Phillips warrant consideration here. Mayo has been blasting up draft boards with his speed and tenacity, although may still be a reach here. DeSean Jackson makes more sense to me, but Mayo would help a defense that struggled to consistently get stops last season.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) Needs: CB,WR,LB,OL,RB
DeSean Jackson WR California
If the Eagles fail to act on one of the most explosive players in the draft, be sure the Bucs will. Jackson was a star in the Pac-10 returning kicks, a department in which the Buccaneers have been historically inept. Outside of Grandpa Galloway, Tampa Bay has virtually no dynamic component to its offense. Michael Clayton has not been the same receiver since his rookie season and "Cadillac Williams" has been in the shop too much to make an impact. The Bucs were a playoff team in a weak conference last season and with an upgrade on the perimeter, they could be there again. Jackson would give Jeff Garcia another deep threat and has the kind of talent to take a bubble screen 80 yards to the house. Not only would it help Jeff Garcia, but it would make Clayton and Galloway's job much easier.

21. Washington Redskins (9-7) Needs: DL,WR,OL,DB,LB
Phillip Merling DE Clemson
I am sure the Redskins would gladly give up this pick to get Chad Johnson, but the Bengals have seemingly ended that possibility. Still, the Redskins would like to get a wide receiver in the first round and Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed definitely will draw consideration. Ultimately though, I believe the Redskins will look to bolster their defensive line with Merling. The former Clemson stand-out would give tenacity and toughness to an aging Redskin pass-rush. I would not be surprised to see a receiver here, although both Kelly and Sweed carry second round grades on some boards. Merling's ability has been overblown by some, but he should have value here. Kentwan Balmer could also go here if the 'Skins decide to go defensive line.

22. Dallas Cowboys F/ Browns (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,RB,OL
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
With Darren McFadden long off the board, Jerry Jones will have to settle for his former-Razorback running back Felix Jones. The Cowboys got Pacman Jones from the Titans earlier this week, but there is no assurance he can be anything close to the player he was before being suspended. That could mean a corner in this spot, but with two first round picks Jones will take a gamble here. Jones could be a big boost behind Marion Barber and would be an upgrade in the return game as well. Jones' speed and elusiveness will compliment Barber's violent, power running style. With Barber softening defenses all game, Jones could break big plays in the second half of games with tired legs on defense. This does not correspond to Jones' value, but the fit is perfect and it makes too much sense not to happen...then again it is Jerry Jones.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) Needs: OT,S,WR,OLB,DE
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Willie Parker's broken fibula has to concern the Steelers and although problems along the offensive front and depth in the receiving core remain an issue, the Steeler's offensive game has always been predicated on a solid running game. Stewart will not make people remember Jerome Bettis, but he is a huge, physical back with enough speed to make the big play, as well as the hands to be versatilite in the passing game. Willie Parker's health could bring concerns about his ability to carry the load. Malcolm Kelly or Limas Sweed will be considered, however neither would bring the kind of insurance and upgrade Stewart could in the backfield. The Oregon running back has been dropped down boards because of his toe surgery, however he seems to be coming back up and may not even fall this far.

24. Tennessee Titans (10-6) Needs: WR,CB,LB,DT,OL
Limas Sweed WR Texas
A few weeks ago if you had said Malcolm Kelly would be on the board when the Titans were picking I would have laughed. Now, not only could he be there, but the Titans could actually pass on him in favor of Limas Sweed. The Titans badly need a true #1 for Vince Young and Sweed hit the map with VY on their way to the National Championship. The Titans could use help at corner and linebacker as well, however Sweed or Kelly just seem too good to pass up here. Both are big strong receivers, but Sweed has better speed and was more productive for longer at Texas. Ultimately, the Titans will have to add a play maker to their offense, and it should be Sweed here.

25. Seattle Seahawks (10-6) Needs: WR,TE,DB,OL,LB
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
If the Titans pass on Kelly, do not expect the Seahawks to waste any time picking up him. The 'Hawks lost D.J. Hackett to the Carolina Panthers and Deion Branch's knee remains a question. Kelly's stock has dipped since a disappointing work out, however Kelly has big time size and hands. He could be a good fit for the West Coast system and will certainly be a threat in the red zone. Taking the once #1 rated receiver here at 25 would be a steal for the Seahawks to add a weapon for Matt Hasslebeck. It seemed a lock to take a running back in this spot, but with the top backs gone and the addition of Julius Jones, that seems significantly less likely now. Purdue's Dustin Keller or USC's Fred Davis could also be picks here as Mike Holmgren has not had a consistent tight end since he came to the Pacific Northwest. If Kelly is here however, he should be the pick.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) Needs: DL,LB,S,WR,CB
Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina
The Jacksonville Jaguars may take a cue from the Kansas City Chiefs and draft a player to fill the void left by a traded defensive stalwart. The Jaguars traded Marcus Stroud to the Bills in the off-season and now have a giant gap along the defensive front. Kentwan Balmer had a phenomenal senior season at UNC when he finally lived up to his potential. Balmer has pass-rush skills and can anchor against the run as well. Receiver and linebacker are also concerns, but neither Indiana's James Hardy nor Michigan's Mario Manningham really fit here. Balmer could also play end if necessary, although his more natural position would be at tackle. He would seriously benefit from playing next to John Henderson who will draw extra attention.

27. San Diego Chargers (11-5) Needs: DB,MLB,DL,LB,RB
Calais Campbell DE Miami (Florida)
San Diego has the luxury of drafting just about anyone in this spot. The Chargers have very few holes on their team and look to just add depth. Corner could certainly be the pick and Aqib Talib would be a great addition next to Antonio Cromartie. However, the Chargers have been looking to add a powerful defensive end to their defense and Campbell fits this team perfectly. Campbell could really thrive as an end in the Chargers 3-4 system using his massive frame to open lanes for others, while using his quickness to get to the QB himself. The Chargers could use a running back to go alongside LT, but with the top backs gone, it is too high to reach on guys like Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles. Campbell has the talent to be a force, particularly with guys like Phillips and Merriman drawing so much attention around him.

28.Dallas Cowboys (13-3) Needs: DB,DT,MLB,OL
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
As I've stated, Pacman Jones certainly does not solve the Cowboys problems in the defensive backfield. James Hardy or Mario Manningham could be higher on Jerry Jones' priority list, however, Talib has much more value here than either wide receiver. Talib's ball skills are second to none in this draft and would be a welcome change from the stone hands of Roy Williams. The Cowboys secondary has been wildly overrated so it would make sense they take another overrated corner prospect here. The difference is, they will be stealing him rather than reaching for him at 28. Talib probably will not be the shut down corner his press clippings would lead you to believe, but he could be a solid corner and has the kind of play making ability Jerry Jones loves. Talib is a perfect fit for the Cowboys.

29. San Francisco 49ers F/ Colts (5-11) Needs: OL,WR,DL,S,OLB
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
San Francisco should be picking #7, but traded for Joe Staley last year and only makes it back into the first round following a trade with Colts. Mike Nolan's job will be on the line and with new offensive coordinate Mike Martz, it will be up to the offense to pick up the slack on a team that had no offensive identity last season other than "sloppy." The 49ers have not had an explosive receiver since TO left and could really use one here so James Hardy and Mario Manningham remain options. However, the 49ers got DeShaun Foster and have Frank Gore and will need to open lanes up to ease the burden on Alix Smith. Gosder Cherilus disappointed to some degree as a senior, but has the physical tools to be a mauler at tackle. The 49ers pick again at the top of the second and should have a chance to add a solid wide receiver there, something I expect them to do.

30. Green Bay Packers (13-3) Needs: CB,TE,OL,LB,DE
Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Green Bay has the opportunity here to do a number of things. They could take the best safety in this class and bolster their depth at the position. They could take the best tight end in the class and give Aaron Rodgers another weapon on a team full of play makers. They could also take an offensive lineman like Sam Baker to add depth behind the aging tackles already in place. However, with the way Eli Manning torched this vaunted Packer secondary, I expect to see the physical former Hokie at this spot. Flowers could be a top 15 pick if he had run a little faster at the combine. He plays the the kind of physical confident man to man game that the Packers have made so successful with Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Depth at the position is not great, and at the very least Flowers could will be in a nickel/dime role and a big contributor on special teams right away.

31.New York Giants (10-6) Needs: LB,DB,WR,OL
Kenny Phillips S Miami (Florida)
Superb depth may not be the reason the Giants won the Super Bowl, but they will get to add depth here with the 31st pick. Without a true glaring need, the Giants can take whomever they feel has the most value here. A linebacker like Penn State's Dan Connor would upgrade an overachieving linebacking core. However, Phillips makes the most sense with the loss of Gibril Wilson. The former Hurricane was considered a top 15 pick before disappointing work outs and a sub-standard junior campaign. Phillips was a great defensive player at Miami as a sophomore and has enough potential to be a solid safety for the Giants. New York has plenty of defensive backs, just none about whom you can really be excited. Phillips has that element in his game and can bring some excitement and tenacity to this already stellar Giants defense.

New England Patriots 16-0
Forfeit pick: Cheating

32.) Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne QB Michigan
The first thing new administrations tend to do is get their guy at QB...this is "their guy" sorry John Beck

33.) St. Louis Rams - Dan Connor LB Penn State
Rams get first round talent to fill one of their biggest needs, and a guy who knows how to win.

34.) Kansas City Chiefs - Brian Brohm QB Louisivlle
Brohm's accuracy and poise just too good to pass up for a team clearly rebuilding.

35.) Atlanta Falcons F/ Raiders - Sam Baker OT USC
Falcons get a guy to protect Matt Ryan's blindside, one of the best pass-blockers in the draft.

36.) New York Jets - James Hardy WR Indiana
The Jets like Cotchery, but Coles is not getting any younger and Clemmens needs help.

37.) Atlanta Falcons - Curtis Lofton LB Oklahoma
New head coach Mike Smith will love Lofton's toughness and smarts for his new defense.

38.) Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Having missed out on Matt Ryan, the Ravens take the guy second on many draft boards.

39.) San Francisco 49ers - Early Doucet WR LSU
49ers get the receiver they fell in love with at the Senior Bowl to help out Alix Smith

40.) New Orleans Saints - Dustin Keller TE Purdue
Keller brings another dimension to the Saints already potent offense in the only area it lacked.

41.) Buffalo Bills - Fred Davis TE USC
Another weapon for Trent Edwards to go along with Lynch and Evans to get down the middle.

42.) Denver Broncos - Pat Sims DT Auburn
Broncos may have traded for a DT, but their defense really was THAT bad against the run.

43.) Carolina Panthers - Tyrelle Johnson S Arkansas State
Johnson has been rising quickly on boards and fills a big void in the Panther's secondary.

44.) Chicago Bears - Mario Manningham WR Michigan
The Bears have NO receivers and Manningham is used to playing to playing with erratic QB's.

45.) Detroit Lions - Quinten Groves DE Auburn
Groves fits the 3-4 scheme better, but he can really get after the QB with ferocity.

46.) Cincinnati Bengals - Lawrence Jackson DE USC
Bad luck with USC DE's will not keep the Bengals from adding the versatile Trojan end.

47.) Minnesota Vikings - Jordy Nelson WR Kansas State
With no real #1, Nelson will be a good possession compliment to the deep speed of Berrian.

48.) Atlanta Falcons F/Texans - Tracey Porter CB Indiana
Having traded DeAngelo Hall, the Falcons add another speedy corner with big-play ability.

49.) Philadelphia Eagles -Lavelle Hawkins WR Cal
Hawkins' big-play talent and return potential makes him a good fit despite his lack of size.

50.) Arizona Cardinals - Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
The Edge is not getting any younger and Johnson could be the back of the future in Arizona.

51.) Washington Redskins - Chilo Rachal G USC
Redskins get the best guard in the draft not named Brandon Albert at the bottom of the second.

52.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Reggie Smith CB/S Oklahoma
Smith's strength and versatility make him a perfect fit to thrive in the Tampa 2.

53.) Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin King CB Penn State
No real value at WR or OL means the best corner left to keep up with the WR's in the AFC.

54.) Tennessee Titans - Cliff Avril DE/OLB Purdue
Needing help at both defensive line and linebacker, the Titans add a player who can play both.

55.) Seattle Seahawks - Jamaal Charles RB Texas
Even with Julius Jones and Mo' Morris, the Seahawks would love to get big-play specialist.

56.) Green Bay Packers F/ Browns - Martellus Bennett TE Texas A&M
The best blocking tight end in the draft would help Ryan Grant as well as A-Rod in the red zone.

57.) Miami Dolphins F/ Chargers - Trevor Laws DT/DE Notre Dame
One of the most productive lineman in college football will be perfect for the Dolphins 3-4 D.

58.) Jacksonville Jaguars - Antoine Cason CB/S Arizona
In the AFC, you can never have too many DB's, especially when Indianpolis is in your division.

59.) Indianapolis Colts - Dre Moore DT Maryland
Colts are still looking for a long-term solution at tackle and Moore has plenty of potential.

60.) Green Bay Packers - Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Collins size and agility make him too good to pass up, adding depth to an aging tackle group.

61.) Dallas Cowboys - Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Caldwell can be extremely productive with Romo and company taking the focus.

62.) New England Patriots - Ray Rice RB Rutgers
Value pick with the Pats looking to eventually replace Kevin Faulk and give Maroney some rest.

63.) New York Giants - Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech
No real value at other positions of need make one of the best linebackers in the draft the choice.

NFL Draft Preview: Running Backs

2008-04-18T09:16:00.001-07:00

Tom Brady may have been the MVP last season, but Adrian Peterson had one of the finest rookie seasons in the history of the league at any position. In a copy cast league, scouts are going to be looking for that impact rookie running back. With two-back systems becoming more popular and the short self life of NFL running backs, every team could use depth at running back. The Kansas City Chiefs seemed silly to draft Larry Johnson when they had Priest Holmes in his prime, but just a few years later they look like visionaries. Similarly, the Vikings drafted AP knowing they had Chester Taylor already. As a result, teams like the Falcons, Raiders, and Jets could all consider drafting Darren McFadden and another dozen teams could all be willing to take one of these running backs if they fall. Teams like Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, and Houston are the most likely to be looking running back in the top 20. And at least 3 running backs are worthy of top 20 consideration with another two potentially landing in round one. This class has great talent from top to bottom, considerably more than the 2007 class. As many as 10 running backs could be taken in the first three rounds.

1.) Darren McFadden 6-1 211 Arkansas
Explosive. That really can be the only way to describe Darren McFadden. He has been one of the most dynamic players in college football since he got to Arkansas, even more so than Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma. However, that does not necessarily mean McFadden will have an AP type impact as a rookie. McFadden has more speed and quickness than Peterson, but McFadden can be a long strider and does not play the physical brand of football Peterson does. D-Mac possesses great vision and can even read out of the shotgun (Wild Hog) formation playing a quasi-quarterback formation. Speed is outstanding, but McFadden will not over power many defenders and must improve his blocking. McFadden could turn a franchise around, particularly if the character concerns are as far behind him as he would like teams to believe. While I worry about his high running style and long legs, his explosiveness and versatility make him the top talent in this draft and a sure fire top 5 pick. McFadden has essentially four potential destinations. 1.) He goes to Atlanta with third overall pick, however this seems the least likely (even if it makes sense for Atlanta). 2.)He falls to Oakland at #4, probably the most likely given Al Davis has fallen in love with D-Mac (even if this makes the least sense for Oakland). 3.) He falls to New York at #6, which is not as unrealistic as it could seem given McFadden is the most talented player in the draft. 4.) A team like New York or Team X ( I dunno Dallas?) trades into the top 5 to grab McFadden. Either way, he will not get past the Jets at pick six overall.

2.) Richard Mendenhall 5-11 225 Illinois
McFadden has been compared to Adrian Peterson because of his potential impact in the NFL right away. However, Mendenhall's running style is much closer to that of AP's. Mendenhall runs with a forward lean and great balance. He drives his legs and can punish opponents. On the other hand, he does not have the kind of agility of a McFadden or some of the other players on this list. That does not mean Mendenhall is not explosive. This former Illini back runs a sub 4.5 40 and has a second gear in space to break big plays. Anyone who watched him against USC's dominant defense in the Rose Bowl knows how talented this kid is. Mendenhall also may be a better pass catcher than either McFadden or Peterson and has excellent versatility. Mendenhall has been climbing draft boards since August and his stock seems to have reached its apex. Mendenhall's combination of power and speed, plus his ability to make plays in the passing game out of the backfield gives him franchise back potential. Every team starting with Denver at #12 to Arizona at #16 would love to see him on the board when he pick. If Clady and Rivers are both off the board at #12 do not be surprised to see Denver jump all over this former Illini stud.

3.) Jonathan Stewart 5-10 235 Oregon
Dennis Dixon received a tremendous amount of credit for bringing the Oregon football program back to prominence this past season. However, after Dixon went down, Stewart proved he was the best player on this team and one of the best in college football. Unfortunately, Stewart's stock had been soaring and then he had surgery on his toe. Stewart puncuated his season and career as a Duck with a 23 carry 253 yard rushing performance against a talented South Florida defense in the Sun Bowl. Stewart ran for 1,722 yards a junior and for a back his size, did it with outstanding balance and vision. He has quick feet and played in a scheme where he had to read his blockers and make cuts. He can change direction and get up to speed in a hurry, something that makes him particularly dangerous in the passing game taking screens out of the backfield. Despite his stocky frame, Stewart is not a power back, but he has the size and strength to prevent him from getting bullied. Stewart has been nicked up most of his career, but for a running back in a major conference it cannot be too big a concern, especially considering this guy's talent level. The toe remains a question mark at this point and Stewart has had his share of durability issues, mostly minor, nagging injuries all football players inevitably have. However, Stewart brings rare combination of power and speed. Some believe the injury issues have knocked him out of the first round, but that simply seems out of the question. If the Cardinals think he will be OK medically he could go as high as #16. Do not expect him to fall past San Diego at 27, he even reminds me of former Charger Michael Turner.

4.) Felix Jones 5-10 207 Arkansas
Running in the shadow of Darren McFadden, Jones finished his career at Arkansas with a yards per carry (7.6) second in NCCA history. The "other" Razorback runner also returned four kickoffs for touchdowns and has explosion in the return game. Jones' speed cannot be quantified in numbers, but he does run a sub 4.5 40. He can break away from defenders with a great first step and gets to the linebackers in a hurry. In the open field, Jones has the athleticism to make people miss with home run-type wiggle. Jones also has great hands out of the backfield and will have great third-down value for NFL teams. Jones has never carried the load on his own, but perhaps that benefits him. He is a change of pace back and with more and more two-back systems in the NFL, any team would love a guy with big-play capabilities who you can line up anywhere and he will help you in the run game or passing game. Jones represents one of the most versatile, if unproven, backs in this draft. While Jerry Jones may be in love with Darren McFadden, as an Arkansas man, he loves this former-Razorback with whom he shares his namesake as well. Jones' explosive play and return skills would make him a perfect compliment to bullish style of Marion Barber III. Whether it is pick 22 or 28 (His value seems better suited for 28, although Jerry may want him bad enough to ahead at 22), Jones seems like a shoo-in to put on a Cowboy cap come draft day.

5.) Chris Johnson 5-11 197 East Carolina
Johnson and Jones have very similar games and could have similar roles on the next level. If you thought Jones was fast, how about a 4.24 40 yard dash? That is serious speed and this guy plays as fast as he times. Johnson has experience as a running back, wide receiver, and a kick returner. As such, much like Jones, he could be lined up anywhere and defenses would have to respect his explosiveness. However, Johnson does not have great instincts for a running back and is not the cerebral player Jones is. Durability and strength are also an issue as Johnson's slight frame could be a concern with the bigger, more physical defenses in the NFL. Where he plays in a third down role, or becomes an every down player, Johnson will have to improve his blocking so he can be in on more passing plays. Can he be successful running the ball inside? He will certainly have to get stronger and more physical to pound the rock inside the tackles. Scouts differ on their opinion of Johnson as a first round talent, however he certainly has first round speed. His versatility and explosion make him a game-changer and a hot attraction for fans. A team could fall in love with him and draft him at the end of the first or bottom of the second round, but with the depth at the position, I expect he will go to the Bears or the Cardinals in round two.

6.) Jamaal Charles 5-11 200 Texas
Jamaal Charles will be the next in line of great Texas running backs to get to the NFL. Teams looking for a running back will have to hope his on the field production looks more like Ricky Williams than Cedric Benson (And hope his off-field life looks like neither). Either way, Charles would do well to ignore his Longhorn predecessors and try to pave his own path. Besides, Charles shares very few characteristics with Williams and Benson. Charles' game is predicated on speed and agility. He is capable of hitting a cutback lane and taking it to the house. Charles plays with balance and with his body underneath him. He has a strong upper body and if you do not take him on low, he has the strength to bull over defenders, particularly corners who tend try and drag and tackle. Charles also possesses adequate hands out of the backfield and will be a threat in the passing game. No one will accuse Charles of being a power bank and he will have to get stronger to be a pile-pushing back on short yardage plays. Durability is also a concern and he's only carried the full load for one season. Teams appear to have fallen for Ray Rice out of Rutgers, but before the combine I believed Jamaal Charles to be the fifth best back in this year's draft. Only Johnson's outstanding work outs have pushed him to fifth, and Charles runs with track speed also. For whatever reason, this former Longhorn has been flying under the radar. Do not be surprised if a team like Green Bay or New England makes sure he does not fall further than he ought to at the bottom of round two. (There have also been rumors that the Titans would love to see Charles reunited with VY)

7.) Ray Rice 5-8 199 Rutgers
Production has never been an issue for this former Scarlett Knight. As a junior, Rice rushed for over 2,000 yards and found the end zone 24 times. He has been the focal point of the Rutgers offense for the past two seasons and even when teams knew he was getting the ball, they still could not stop him. Rice has a low center of gravity, playing with great toughness and power. He possesses excellent balance and vision. Rice will hit cutback lanes hards can accelerate quickly. He does not have breakaway speed, but runs in the 4.5 range and can still make big plays. Rice will not make many people miss and that kind of beating could wear on him, particularly with all the carries he has gotten already in his career. As I stated earlier, Rice's stock has been up despite his diminutive stature. He has a ton of miles on him already, but teams believe that shows his capability to carry an offense. I love Ray Rice, I have always loved watching him at Rutgers and I think he was a tremendous college back. I also believe he will get picked in the mid second round where so many teams are looking for running backs. Unfortunately, he will likely go ahead of Charles, which I believe to be a mistake.

8.) Steve Slaton 5-9 197 West Virginia
Slaton is the one underclassmen on this list who really could have benefitted from another year in college. The former Mountaineer was highly productive in college, but had a relatively disappointing 2007 season and people questioned his toughness and even his explosiveness. As an underclassman, Slaton showed the kind of big-play ability talent evaluators look for. He has great vision and understands lanes extremely well. Slaton's hands are excellent and he could even make a transition to receiver if teams feel like he cannot stand up to the beating of an NFL running back. Slaton has a great burst and can be extremely slippery in space. However, his blocking his suspect and Slaton never really proved he could run between the tackles. Players like Slaton drives coaches, scouts, and front-office people nuts. Slaton was one of the most explosive players in college football over the last three seasons and produced 55 total touchdowns in three seasons. However, he did not have the kind of dominant junior season many expected and even lost carries to true freshman Noel Devine (although, no shame there) His versatility give him great value as a third down back and returner, although he may never be a franchise back. He seems to have the talent, we just do not know what we're going to get. Once a first rounder, Slaton probably has dropped out of the second into the top of the third round.

9.) Matt Forte 6-1 217 Tulane
Forte represents the only true power back on this list. Forte runs low to the ground and drives his legs to churn out yards. He shows good patience and vision, making his reads and getting through the line without getting off balance. Forte was one of the hot topics of the Senior Bowl as scouts were anxious to see the nation's second leading rusher against top level talent. He proved he was a smart player who had the talent worthy of his gaudy statistics. On the other hand, Forte lacks the true home run ability of some of the other bigger backs in the draft like Mendenhall and Stewart. Forte did run sub 4.5 40's, but he does not have that second gear to put distance between himself and a defender (Like Mendenhall). It would not surprise me to see Forte's name ahead of Slaton's on a team's draft board. His stock has risen steadily since a strong Senior Bowl and it seemed like every team was watching him closely to see what kind of player he could be. His power and blocking skills make him valuable in any system, although teams looking for a big-play threat will want to look elsewhere. Even so, Forte will be a hot commodity come draft day and is a legitimate third round player.

10.) Kevin Smith 6-1 217 Central Florida
Kevin Smith could have returned for his senior season, but after nearly breaking the single season rushing record, Smith was not going to get significantly better as a senior and his stock was as high as it was going to be. Smith runs with tremendous vision. He does not have break away speed, but reads his blocks so well, he uses cutback lanes to get defenders out of position. He has the lower-body strength and power to get the tough yards in between the tackles. Smith does not have very much shiftiness in his game, but he does flash the ability to make a man miss and get extra yards. Smith was not used very much in the passing game and his receiving skills must improve. Smith's best years appear to be in front of him and he could be the type of player who just knows how to play the game effectively. When you are in the college football annals next to a guy like Barry Sanders, I think any questions about your ability to play have been answered. Smith will need to get bigger, and questions about his break-away ability will remain, but he can flat-out pound the ball. He will be a workhorse and it would not surprise me if he outperformed running backs taken ahead of him. It may be disappointing for college football purists that a guy who fell 61 yards short of the single season rushing record at a D-1 school would not be a first day pick, but realists will see he is a third round pick.

NFL Draft Preview: Wide Receivers

2008-04-15T13:20:00.000-07:00

Perhaps no position has seen more shake up than this year's wide receiver class. Malcolm Kelly headlined the '08 class as the top overall prospect, but injury issues and a poor workout has him dropping perhaps even into the second round. Devin Thomas has ridden to the top of this class, in a sense by default. Had DeSean Jackson measured a little bigger he likely would have been #1. Had Limas Sweed not missed the Senior Bowl due to his lingering wrist injury, he might also have been #1. All four of these players are likely first rounders and all could make impacts as rookies. However, none are top 10 talents and most of them belong in the bottom half of the first round. There may be no Calvin Johnson type talent here, but plenty of talent sprinkles this list with big red zone receivers, as well as speedy slot players who can give nickel corners fits. With so many teams in need of more play makers on offense, expect four or five receivers to be taken in the first round and as many as eight or nine could be taken on the first day.

1.) Devin Thomas 6-2 216 Michigan State
This one has been hard for me to go with. Thomas had just one solid season at State after transfering from Coffeyville Community College. He has size and strength to big a big-time receiver, plus the speed and explosion to make big plays with the ball in his hands. Even at 6-2 216, he can take a bubble screen 80 yards to the house. However, he does not run great routes and does not possess great technique. He will likely struggle against press coverage and does not do a great job blocking. At this point, the only thing putting him ahead of DeSean Jackson is size. Thomas may only be a hair under 6-2, but at 216, he is better equipped physically to deal with the punishment of an NFL season. Additionally, Thomas may have more upside long term, Jackson is more ready to make an impact in the NFL right now because of his ability to return. Thomas is at the head of a weak receiver class, however he has the physical tools to warrant a top 20 selection. He has the kind of explosion Donovan McNabb was looking for and with holes having already been filled on defense, Thomas would be an ideal fit with Philadelphia at 19. Rumors also say the Bills are willing to reach for Thomas at #11.

2.) DeSean Jackson 5-10 169 California
DeSean Jackson projects as a better receiver than Ted Ginn Jr last season and TGJ was a top 10 pick. Jackson is a more polished receiver as well as even more explosive in the return game. Every team could use a play maker like Jackson. He has great hands and will take hits going across the middle, although he has a tendency to drop easy ones worrying too much about what he will do after he makes the catch. To be fair, that is where Jackson makes his money. He has excellent body control and wiggle to get in position to catch and then make defenders miss. He can run any route you ask him to and does a good job getting separation with fluid hips. Jackson does not have great footwork and does not show great aggression while blocking. His return skills make up for the few blocks he may miss. You simply cannot kick or punt to him because he has serious, Devin Hester like stuff in returns, having returned 6 punts for touchdowns (Including 4 as a junior...as a senior most teams just didn't kick to him). I have been on Jackson's bandwagon all season long despite his struggle with injuries and his lack of ideal size. He is the most explosive player in this draft not named Darren McFadden and has return skills second to none in this year's class. He could inject some much needed life into Tampa Bay's passing attack, as well as give them explosion in the return game at #20 if Philly doesn't grab him at 19.

3.) Limas Sweed 6-4 215 Texas
The only reason Sweed finds himself here has been the strong workout of Devin Thomas and lingering injury concerns after Sweed lost most of his senior season to a wrist injury. Sweed has been a stand out at Texas and as a junior scored 12 times while averaging over 17 yards per play. The former Longhorn has explosive capabilities in the passing game despite his lack of top-end speed (Only runs in the 4.5's). However, his massive frame makes him a match-up nightmare for corners, particularly in the red zone. Sweed uses his body well to get in position and shows a particular knack for finding soft spots in zones, almost the way a tight end would in the middle of the field. He works extremely hard and is a smart, competitive player, displaying the kind of attitude you want from a #1 receiver. The biggest issue not relating to his injury is his lack of explosion in and out of cuts. Sweed may struggle to get separation against corners with great speed, but that is why his big frame and soft hands become so important because he can make the tough plays in traffic. With Jackson and Thomas off the board, plenty of teams will still be looking for a top receiver at the bottom of the first round. Vince Young desperately needs a true #1 and do not be surprised even if the Titans have Kelly rated higher if they take Sweed at # 24 to recapture of of VY's Longhorn magic.

4.) Malcolm Kelly 6-4 224 Oklahoma
When Kelly declared, he was considered the top wide out in a weak class. After being unable to perform in the combine due to a lingering leg injury, Kelly had a disappointing work out in Norman where he only ran in the high 4.6's in his 40. Scouts already had concerns about Kelly's ability to get separation in the NFL, something he did not do consistantly in college either. He has a tremendous ability to make catches in traffic, but part of that has been because he simply does not get the kind of separation you would like to see. Like Sweed, he uses his frame well to wall off defenders and has excellent hands. Kelly runs pretty good routes and has good feet. He will be a tough cover in the red zone. Kelly simply cannot stay healthy and that concerns a number of teams. You name it, it seems like Kelly has missed time because of it. Kelly's value had been driven through the roof, and unfairly so. He could have a great career as a possession receiver, but will never be the kind of explosive #1 the guys ahead of him could be. Some scouts have Kelly falling behind Hardy/Manningham here to #5 on the list, but I cannot justify moving down a player ranked #1 without a workout down to 5 just because he had a poor workout. Personnel evaluators will always look at the film first, and on film, Kelly is certainly a first round pick.

5.) James Hardy 6-5 217 Indiana
Of the big receivers in this draft, none of them have been as consistent as this former Hoosier. Hardy has been a starter since he came to Bloomington and has scored double digit touchdowns in each of his three seasons. As a junior, Hardy broke out with 1,125 yards and 16 touchdowns on 79 catches. He has outstanding size and can be physical across the middle. Hardy will not be bullied and can get off press coverage and release. Hardy is a long strider and has a tendency to round cuts. That lack of explosion in and out of cuts could make it difficult to get separation against quicker corners at the next level. That does not mean Hardy is not a threat after the catch. He has a second gear and is tough to bring down in the open field. Hardy was arrested on a domestic battery in 2005, but has reportedly matured significantly since then. With the fall of Malcolm Kelly and questions surrounding guys like Manningham, Hardy's stock has put him in that borderline first round range. Teams like Jacksonville and Dallas could both use the help at wide receiver, but if he fell out of the first, he probably would not get past the Chiefs at the top of round 2.

6.) Mario Manningham 6-0 181 Michigan
If you watched college football, you know how devastating Manningham can be. He was one of the premier play makers in the country in his three seasons at Ann Arbor, punctuated by his junior season with 1,174 yards and 12 touchdowns. Mario is an extremely fluid athlete, showing smooth, clean, route running. He has great hands and can makes catches everywhere on the field, including over the middle. However, he is not very physical and can struggle getting off the line against bigger corners, as well as blocking in the run game. And although he did not run a great 40 at the combine, he came back with mid 4.4 times at his pro day. Manningham has the kind of athleticism to fool corners and get separation despite not having explosive speed. May have some similarities to Greg Jennings and could be a dynamic play maker in the NFL. Some character issues and durability concerns remain and his lack of size and bulk probably precludes him from being a true top receiver, although it did not stop him from dominating a Big Ten loaded with talented corners. Manningham was once considered a first round prospect, however his stock has slipped due to inconsistency in pre-draft workouts. He has righted the ship to some degree, but will still likely slip into the second round. A team like the Jets who desperately want to add a dynamic dimension to their offense would gladly welcome Manningham's big-play ability at the top of the second round.

7.) Early Doucet 6-0 208 Louisiana State University
Doucet may not have blazing speed or great height, but he is the type of player coaches love. Doucet has solid natural athleticism and body control to make catches all over his body. Doucet always seems to know where the first down marker is and possesses great awareness on the field. He is very strong, although he will need to get better at beating press coverage. Scouts consider him a quick player rather than a fast one and his timed speed is average (upper 4.5 range in the 40). As a result, Doucet will not stretch the field, but can be a reliable target underneath. He flashes the ability to make plays after the catch and can be elusive in the open field. Doucet does not have much experience being a #1 wideout and benefited from playing with guys like Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe. Some scouts love Doucet and others wonder how much upside he really has. To me, he looks like a potentially solid #2 receiver, but could also be tough in the slot as a #3. Doucet is another player who was considered to be a first round pick, but has dropped into the second round as a result of disappointing 40 times and workouts. Mike Martz and Mike Nolan fell in love with Doucet at the Senior Bowl and with WR a big need for the 49ers, Doucet could be their pick at the top of the second round.

8.) Lavelle Hawkins 5-11 187 California
Hawkins is one of the most natural pass catchers on this list. He has great quickness and agility and is smooth in and out of cuts. Despite his lack of size and strength, he uses his quick feet to beat press coverage and can get separation against a number of coverages. Even at his size, Hawkins shows a willingness to go across the middle and take the big hit. He may not have great timed speed (4.5 40's), but watching him, you can see just how explosive he can changing directions. He also has some upside as a return man with his elusiveness and agility. Hawkins was one of the most impressive players at the Senior Bowl showing he can get separation against some of the top corners in the country. Hawkins was overshadowed at times by his teammate Jackson at Cal, but has faired well in workouts and evaluations. Hawkins has a chance to be a killer from the slot and only adds to his value with return ability. His stock has risen over the last several weeks and he has played himself into mid-second round consideration. The Minnesota Vikings could use someone consistency at the receiver position and will likely consider Hawkins with their 2nd round pick.

9.) Andre Caldwell 6-0 204 Florida
Caldwell has been a tough prospect to figure out. He has sub 4.4 40 speed and soft hands, but lacks great height to be a red zone threat and lacks elusiveness to be a big run after catch receiver. Caldwell has soft hands and can find spots in the zone. May very well be a possession receiver who you can send vertically every now and then because of his excellent top end speed. However, at Florida, Caldwell was not a true vertical threat, certainly not the way a guy like Manningham or Jackson were. His nickname, "Bubba" does not relate in any way to his physicality as he will not overpower anyone, but shows the will to fight for balls in traffic. Caldwell was outstanding and productive at Florida, becoming their all-time leader in catches. However, Florida receivers have a history of underachieving in the NFL and while Caldwell does not project as a top-tier receiver, it may be difficult to project his role at the next level. Although Caldwell's stock has risen since leaving Florida, "Bubba" simply has not done enough to get himself into the first day. While he could sneak into the late second round, the top of the third seems considerably more likely.

10.) Eddie Royal 5-10 184 Virginia Tech
A case could be made for a player like Jordy Nelson from Kansas State or Jerome Simpson of Coastal Carolina and a number of scouts will actually have both Simpson and Nelson rated higher than Royal. However, I think Royal has more upside than both Nelson and Simpson. Royal has excellent explosion and speed running with sub 4.4 speed. In addition, Royal has great strength as he showed in his position best 24 reps of 225 at the combine. The former Hokie also makes up for his slight stature with a 36 inch vertical leap. On the field though Royal's athletic skills really shine through. He is a shifty runner who can make people miss. He has solid hands and can pluck the ball out of the air on the run. His experience on special teams playing "Beamer Ball" will only add to his value. Royal has never been to go-to guy, but likely will not have that burden in the NFL either. He has the size, speed, and elusiveness to be devastating out of the slot, and a huge boost on special teams. Royal is one of my favorite players in this draft, but he may not be for scouts. He could be a steal in the third round.

Other players to watch: Jordy Nelson Kansas State, Jerome Simpson Coastal Carolina, Earl Bennett Vanderbilt, Donnie Avery Houston, Dexter Jackson Appalachian State

NFL Draft Preview: Quarterbacks

2008-04-06T22:07:00.001-07:00

On the surface, this class may not have the big college names coming out like the 2004 class with Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger, however this group has considerably more depth into the second, third, and even fourth rounds than did that 2004 class. This list is dotted with over- hyped underachievers, as well as skyrocketing "overachievers". Players like Chad Henne never quite lived up to expectations at Michigan, while no one expected Matt Ryan to be a top 5 pick. In addition a guy like Brian Brohm has lost traction after being considered a top 10 pick. Now players like Henne and Flacco who have moved up boards following outstanding post-season games and workouts have the buzz. Do not be fooled though, Brohm is a hell of a player and will have tremendous value late in round 1 and has no business falling to round 2(Although the Dolphins will gladly take him). With teams constantly trying to find the next player to be the face of their franchise, expect more than a few to have interest in these stellar signal-callers.

1.) Matt Ryan 6-5 228 Boston College
Every time I watch Matt Ryan play, I find something else I like about his game. He is a big, strong QB who stands tall in the pocket and can deliver strikes. Ryan played with sub-par offensive talent at Boston College and still managed to throw for 4,507 yards and 31 touchdowns. The 19 interceptions as a senior may seem concerning, however with 654 attempts in 14 games that is a pick every 34 attempts. With very little to work with on offense in a new, pro-style scheme, I would say that is getting the job done. Ryan got the nickname "Matty Ice" for leading late game comebacks, having "ice in his veins." His presence and command of the offense makes him an effective play caller at the line and in late game/half situations. Ryan's arm will not blow you away and he does not have a ton of experience throwing deep, having been without a deep threat most of his career. However, he can make every throw necessary, something he showed with a near flawless throwing session at his private workout. Ryan has everything it takes to be a top-level signal caller in the NFL, however his grade by some may be inflated by the fact that he is the best player at the most important position in the game. He has the potential to be an excellent pro and could go as high as #3 to Atlanta and it would be unthinkable for him to slip past Baltimore at #8.

2.) Brian Brohm 6-3 230 Louisville
Brohm was considered the top quarterback returning to college football last August and would have been a surefire first round pick last year. Then, his Cardinals failed to leave up to National Championship expectations, particularly because of a horrendous defense. Brohm threw for 4,024 yards and 30 touchdowns on just 473 attempts (compared to similar numbers from Ryan who threw nearly 200 more passes). Brohm does not have a rocket arm but shows great touch and accuracy, boasting a 65.8% career completion percentage at Louisville. That is particularly impressive when you consider he played with 3 different offensive coordinators and adapted to each well. Part of that certainly comes from his stellar mechanics. Brohm uses his core to get torque and has a quick release. He has good feet, and showed surprising speed at the combine. Brohm also reads coverages well and shows good patience when given time. He does have a tendency to struggle with pressure in his face, something he will see early and often in his career. Brohm has some questions about his durability having suffered a torn ACL and thumb ligaments in 2005 and 2006 respectively. Brohm is top 15 talent, but questions about toughness and attitude have him as a late first round pick. Do not be surprised if a team like Carolina, Chicago, or Minnesota try and trade into the late first round with a team like the Cowboys to get Brohm.

3.) Chad Henne 6-3 230 Michigan
A four year starter at Michigan, Henne never really developed into the kind of player scouts expected. With the talent around him in Ann Arbor, Henne was touted as the next great star QB to put on the maize and blue. Instead, Henne suffered from inconsistency, mechanic deficiencies, and injuries. One game he would get happy feet and throw the ball everywhere except where receivers were, and then the next he would make it look easy, completing passes all over the field. However, in big games Henne seemed to bring it, at least when he was healthy. He threw for 373 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida in the Capital One Bowl in his last game at Michigan, then showed off a strong arm in the pre-draft workouts. Henne has a big, strong frame and can stand in the pocket to take a hit, however durability concerns linger. He also struggles with pressure in his face and without great athleticism, he can be hurried into making bad throws. Henne does not have a cannon, but has great touch particularly on intermediate and deep throws when he has to place the ball over defenders. His stock has probably risen too much based on his actual production at Michigan and some analysts have been too quick to forget his in-game performance. Still, Henne is a top 50 player and expect Miami, Atlanta, K.C., and the Jets to all consider taking him at the top of the second round.

4.) Joe Flacco 6-6 236 Delaware
Flacco's name has been soaring up draft boards and some analysts actually believe he is the second best quarterback in the draft. After a tremendous combine workout, it would be easy to see why. Flacco showed off the strongest arm of any quarterback and also showed an ability to make throws on the move. He has good feet and the athleticism to make plays. Some of even compared him to Ben Roethlisberger, although Flacco probably is not as ready as Big Ben was coming out. Flacco has only two years of starting experience, having transfered from Pitt. Also, he worked out of a shotgun-heavy scheme and struggled with his drops and exchanges at the Senior Bowl, not to mention the fact that Delaware does not play against top-level competition. Flacco does not possess ideal mechanics, although his throwing motion is quick and he throws a catchable call. His feet can also be less than stellar, but he makes plays on the run and can throw from all over the field. The success of guys like Big Ben may have inflated Flacco's stock as scouts seem to be looking for the next great small-school quarterback. A team at the top of the second round will likely take Flacco in hopes that he is that player.

5.) Andre Woodson 6-4 229 Kentucky
I was not a huge Andre Woodson fan to start the season, and my concerns came to pass over the course of the season. Woodson's long throwing motion does give him excellent zip on his passes, but defenses are just too fast in the NFL and he will need to tweak that to some degree. He also showed he is not as athletic as originally thought. His feet get a little jumpy and he will leave the pocket to make throws but he does not have the speed to escape and make plays on the run. There are also some questions about his ability to read coverage as well as drop from under center, having played in a shotgun system at Kentucky. Some scouts consider Woodson as having the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft, and I happen to disagree. He has great touch and can win games for you in hostile environments. He saw great defenses in the SEC and was able to win consistently. With 40 touchdowns and just 11 int's as a senior, Woodson has proven he can produce, his readiness for the NFL remains a question. Woodson is still a top 60 talent, although the bottom of the second round does not have many teams looking for QB help. It would not surprise me if a team like Carolina traded up into the second round to grab him.

6.) John David Booty 6-2 218 USC
Accurate and very smart, Booty displayed the kind of football IQ capable of playing QB for one of the game's more prolific offensive attacks at USC. Booty followed former SC greats, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, and while he was never a Heisman finalist, Booty won games against the extremely tough Pac-10 schedule. Booty has nimble feet in his drops, although he will not move around very much to make plays. That can be a problem because he lacks ideal height, making it tougher to find throwing lanes. He does have a quick release and good accuracy on most throws, but does not throw a great deep ball. Booty may not be the biggest guy, or have the strongest arm, but he played with the best talent in the nation at USC and when he was healthy, he showed how productive he can be (see: the Rose Bowl against Illinois) He will never be a guy who slings the ball all over the field, but in a controlled, west-coast type offense Booty could really flourish. Expect him to come off the board in the early to mid third round.

7.) Joshua Johnson 6-3 213 San Diego
I hate to get caught up in statistics, but let me just throw a few numbers at you. 113 TD's to just 15 INT's, a career 65.9% completion percentage, NCAA's all-time passing efficiency leader at 176.7. That includes a senior year with 300 attempts, 42 touchdowns and just 1 interception. I'll repeat that: 300 attempts (205 completions) and just 1 interception. I don't care if he was playing in a D-1AA non-scholarship program, that would be tough to do playing a JV high school team. His coach at San Diego, former QB John Harbough, said that if there was a SAT for football that Johnson would demolish it. He possesses tremendously quick feet and an even quicker release. He has unparalleled mobility and ran sub 4.6 40's, but don't even think about calling him a running quarterback. He is a pass-first QB who can run, something they tried and failed to teach Michael Vick. He will have to get bigger and stronger to play in the NFL, as well as learn quickly to adjust to more complex schemes and systems on Sundays. The more I learned about Johnson and after watching him in post-season workouts, he has become one of my favorite players in this year's class. While his MVP performance at the East/West Shrine game garnered him some notoriety, he remains an under the radar prospect. Let me put it this way, if Johnson had done what Woodson did at Kentucky(Playing at an SEC school rather than at San Diego), he would be challenging Matt Ryan for the top QB spot and would be a top 15 pick. That means team in the mid to late third round could really have a gem.

8.) Colt Brennan 6-2 207 Hawaii
Unlike Johnson, Colt Brennan put up gaudy stats and has not impressed since leaving Hawaii. After the shellacking he took from that Georgia defense in the Sugar Bowl, Brennan has been struggling to do damage control on his falling draft stock. His Senior Bowl performance was good and he may have earned back some respect. Brennan has a rifle arm and knows how to find open receivers. At Hawaii, he was incredibly proficient and effective, setting the all-time touchdown pass record (He threw 58 as a junior while completing 72.6%). However, things will get tougher in the NFL with more drops, reads, and tougher defenses. Brennan is a smart kid and plenty of scouts believe he has the football mind to adapt to an NFL system. Teams certainly know all about June Jones' system and how it favors gaudy statistics from quarterbacks. Brennan's abysmal performance against Georgia to end the season brought up concerns about his ability to play against top-competition. But Brennan has a strong arm, and a quick release, to go with a solid work ethic and a mind for the game. He may not be the first day pick some thought he could be, but can still have value in the fourth round.

9.) Eric Ainge 6-5 225 Tennessee
Eric Ainge's time at Tennessee probably went faster than he would have liked. Just when he started to play consistently and win games, he had to graduate. As a senior, Ainge displayed the gutsy play and sound decision making Phi Fulmer expected when he brought Ainge to Knoxville. Ainge has the height and bulk to go along with a solid throwing motion. He has good accuracy and touch on short and intermediate throws, but does not have the power to throw strikes down the field, or drive deep balls. Also, Ainge will not win many footraces and lacks mobility in the pocket. Durability also concerns scouts as Ainge has battled a number of shoulder and hand issues throughout his career. While Ainge may not be Peyton Manning, he certainly is not Tee Martin either. Ainge has proven his toughness and competitive nature, willing to his team to victory even when injured. Perhaps his best quality is that he understands his limitations and will not try to be something he isn't. Ainge has everything you look for in an NFL QB, and if he can stay healthy, could be a starter on Sunday's. A team in the late fourth or early fifth round would love that to be the case.

10.) Dennis Dixon 6-3 195 Oregon
Dixon could be another one of the "system" QB's on this list who will not be expected to excel in the Pro's. He played in a spread offense out of the shotgun and even still has marginal footwork. On the other side, Dixon was an explosive play maker as a senior. Adjusting to a pro offense will be tough, but he has a fluid throwing motion and a quick release. Dixon has a stronger arm than he gets credit for and can make most of the throws. The biggest question may not be the system he played in, but rather his health. Dixon was a Heisman contender before losing his season to a knee-injury. Now teams will have to determine how serious that injury is before moving forward. Furthermore, Dixon was drafted in the fifth round by the Atlanta Braves and actually played last summer in the Braves organization. Dixon's status with teams will probably different greatly across the board, but if teams think he can stay healthy, Dixon has some upside. Given his propensity to make plays and while avoiding mistakes makes his efficiency intriguing. At the very least, Dixon should be a reliable back up and may have a similar career to Seneca Wallace, a former run and gun quarterback. His athleticism and upside will likely land him in the fifth round. The question is, will be play baseball or football??

NFL Draft Preview: Cornerbacks

2008-03-29T13:15:00.000-07:00

"Shut-down" corners have slowly started to become a thing of the past. Al Harris got dominated by Plaxico Burress in the NFC Championship game, and Champ Bailey was killed by rookie James Jones IN Denver. Even young talents like Antonio Cromartie and Marcus Trufant who boast gaudy interception numbers, cannot be labeled "shut-down" corners the way a guy like Deion Sanders or Aeneas Williams were in their primes. However, the New York Giants showed that a good defense can beat a great offense and getting the right players for your defense is crucial. In fact, while the Giants certailny do not have a "shut-down" corner, R.W. McQuarters had a playoff-high 3 interceptions this last post-season and he simply made big plays when his team needed them. With new contact rules helping receivers get clean releases, corners cannot hope to shut-down players, but rather contain them. Also, getting a player on the outside who can make players when the quarterback makes a mistake remains a crucial element to playing stellar defense in the NFL. The 2008 class has no top 5 prospect, but has great depth and talent from top to bottom. As many as five, even six corners could come off the board in the first round.

1.) Leodis McKelvin 5-11 190 Troy
McKelvin's stock has been steadily rising since the beginning of the 2007 season and after an impressive post-season, the former Troy Trojan sits atop a talented group of first round corners. His footwork makes him fluid in and out of cuts when mirroring receivers. However, he played a majority off-man coverage and will have to get better at pressing at the line of scrimmage. As a result, he may not be an ideal fit for schemes particularly cover-2 because his run support ability is somewhat limited. With a 4.38 40 time at the combine, McKelvin showed he could stay with faster receivers at the next level. Additionally, he possesses the hips to stay with receivers on double-moves and will rarely give up big plays. McKelvin was a dynamic player in the Sun Belt Conference as a returner with 8 return touchdowns in his career, including 3 as a senior. Oddly enough though, his ball-skills are not outstanding and he fights the ball at times. When he is able to make the catch, his return skills make him explosive and he could be a game-changer. While he may not be right for all teams, he has top 15 talent and could actually go to New England at #7 if they choose to stay there. It would be tough to envision him slipping past New Orleans or Buffalo at #10 and #11.

2.) Mike Jenkins 5-10 197 South Florida
Jenkins was widely considered the best corner prospect in the draft during his senior season. While his stock has fluctuated on some boards since then, I simply cannot justify him any lower than 2. Jenkins has a great frame and can be physical with receivers at the line. In coverage, Jenkins can do everything you want, opening his hips quickly and changing direction with explosion to break on routes. While he may not have elite ball skills, he has the athleticism to make tough catches in traffic and fight receivers for jump balls. His technique and footwork can be inconsistent, but he has elite speed and explosion to close on balls if he is out of position. Jenkins could also line up at safety, something he has done at South Florida and some scouts actually believe his true position may be free safety. Jenkins has really improved over his four years in Tampa, particularly in run support. Jenkins may have the best instinct of the corners at the top of the board. He could hold up in a cover 3 or man scheme, and has the body to get stronger and even play in a cover 2 scheme. Jenkins offers great versatility, although DRC's tremendous work-outs may push Jenkins down teams draft boards. He could go as high as #10 to New Orleans, or as low as #30 to Green Bay. In terms of talent, he belongs in the mid first round, possibly to Arizona at #16.

3.) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 6-1 188 Tennessee State
The cousin of Charger Antonio Cromartie, "DRC" has been racing up draft boards following arguably the most impressive off-season of any prospect. Even though he went to Tennessee State, he cannot be considered a sleeper anymore and has been rated as the best corner in the draft by some scouts. From an athletic stand-point, that assessment may not be off-base. DRC showed outstanding fluidity in coverage at the Senior Bowl despite his lanky frame, and that was against top-competition. Then he tested as one of the top athletes at the combine turning in low 4.3 40 times and a corner best 38.5 inch vertical leap and 6.74 3-cone time. He has the best ball skills of the top 3 corners, showing his soft hands with a pick in the Senior Bowl game. Further more, he had 18 pass break-ups and 8 picks his last two seasons as a Tiger. Playing at 188 pounds may have been enough in Division II, but he will have to get bigger and stronger so he will not be bullied by receivers at the next level who can go 220. Like Jenkins, DRC could be considered a safety by some teams, but showed the kind of potential at the Senior Bowl to hold up against top-level talent. Rodgers-Cromartie could be a top 15 pick, and could go ahead Mike Jenkins. Whoever is left between Jenkins and DRC, expect Arizona to make sure he does not fall any further.

4.) Aqib Talib 6-1 201 Kansas
Talib's stock has been all over the place since declaring early out of Kansas. He's been ranked anywhere in the top 10 by scouts and has even been #1 on some draft boards. Talib is everything you could ask for from a cornerback, with a long frame and outstanding instincts for the ball. He even spent some time at wide receiver at Kansas and can be dynamic with the ball in his hands. Talib has the strength and tenacity to accept the challenge of bigger, more physical receivers and his tremendous confidence gives him a short memory after getting beat. However, that can get him into trouble. Talib takes too many risks and as a result has a tendency to get beat by inferior receivers. His lack of top-flight recovery speed also makes his ill-timed gambles hurt even more. At Kansas, he was allowed to simply use his physical attributes to make big plays, something he did regularly. However, his feet or sloppy at times and he does not fill hard in the run game. Talib also does not show great explosiveness breaking on the ball, although he when he does get there in time, he almost always makes the play. Talib's stock has fallen somewhat since his outstanding performance in the Orange Bowl, but he has top 20 talent and teams like Tampa Bay and Washington will have considerable interest in this big-play corner in the first round.

5.) Brandon Flowers 5-10 189 Virginia Tech
Flowers has the same confidence and swagger of a player like Talib, but has significantly better discipline and technique. Flowers is solidly built, although a little short. He has fluid hips and shows explosion in and out of breaks. He may not have been playing receiver in VTech (like Talib did at Kansas) however Flowers does a great job of getting his hands on the football. He posted 18 pass break-ups in 2006 and had 5 picks in 2007. He ran a disappointing 40 time at the combine (4.58) but he plays considerably faster than he times and has enough discipline that he rarely gets beat deep. He does take some gambles and will get beat on double moves at times, but his instincts are excellent and he will also come up with momentum shifters. Flowers offers the most physicality of any player in the top 5 here and can really come up and fill hard in the run game. Flowers, had he timed better, would be a legitimate top 20 player and even with his lack of timed speed remains a top 40 player with a borderline first round grade. He would be a great fit in Green Bay with that physical man-to-man style of defense, but do not be surprised if a team like Dallas, San Diego or Jacksonville have serious interest in Flowers in the late first round.

6.) Tracy Porter 5-11 188 Indiana
Tracy Porter is a prospect on the rise and could still be undervalued. Porter possesses great speed and athleticism with smooth hips and tremendous agility in his backpedal. He will not get beaten very often, but if he is caught out of position, he has the recovery speed and burst to get back and make a play on the ball. Once he is in position to make the play, bet on him making it. Porter has excellent hands with 16 career interceptions, and when he has the ball look out because he can take it to the house anytime he touches it. Porter was a playmaker for Indiana in the secondary and in special teams, returning a punt for a touchdown as well. The biggest weakness in his game is his strength and tenacity. He does not do a great job of jamming receivers at the line and gives a large cushion, which can lead to easy catches in front. He also will not fill particularly hard in the run game. Even still, Porter has top 50 talent and will come off the board in the middle of the second round.

7.) Justin King 5-11 192 Penn State
King blew scouts away with a 4.31 at the combine, and his athleticism has him moving up draft boards, even into the first round in some cases. However, King and Porter share similar characteristics. King has great speed and quick feet. He has a burst, and is able to recover when out of position. However, King's hips can be stiff at times, something which could limit him on the next level in man coverage. He will fill in run support and has adequate tackling skills, but does not have outstanding strength and will likely have trouble wrapping up guys like Brandon Jacobs and Fred Taylor. That also means he will have to great stronger to match up with the TO's of the NFL in order to avoid being overpowered and walled off in coverage. His lack of strength will also be a problem fighting for the ball when it is in the air. He does not show the kind of tenacity and want for the ball, which can be a problem considering he does not have the strength to simply impose his will. Additionally, despite playing some receiver in Happy Valley, King does not have stellar ball skills and will not make nearly as many plays as he probably should. King's workouts are somewhat misleading, as his play was up and down at Penn State. King has enough upside to warrant second round consideration, perhaps by a team like Tenneesee, or Seattle in the 50's.

8.) Antoine Cason 6-0 190 Arizona
Cason looks like he would be an ideal NFL cornerback. He is tall and lean with long arms. However, his athleticism is somewhat limited compared to those ahead of him. He does not possess great hip fluidity and does not display a great burst in and out of cuts. Cason has adequate speed, but will struggle to mirror receivers and could get beat if asked to simply turn and run. He has good instincts and will come up hard to help in the run game. However, he does not display outstanding physicality, particularly for someone with his size. He will have to get stronger and perhaps develop the kind of nasty demeanor that makes a player like Al Harris or Champ Baily so good. Right now, Cason looks best suited for a zone heavy scheme, although will have to develop better press technique to play in a cover-2 system. Cason was widely considered the top returning corner in the country after the declarations for the 2007 draft were made. At this point, his stock remains widely varied among scouts. Some people believe he is a first round player, others think third round. It would seem difficult to believe he would fall out of the second round particularly with so many teams looking to add depth at corner.

9.) Patrick Lee 6-0 200 Auburn
Lee brings a particularly intriguing value at this point on the list. He is a tough, physical player who has the strength to re-route receivers and will not get overpowered. However, Lee also has quick feet and good speed to recover. He has some stiffness in his hips and probably belongs in a zone scheme, particularly a cover-2. Lee also tackles well, but right now lacks ideal instincts reading run and pass. That solidifies his potential as a cover-2 player. Lee was not a starter until his senior season, but with his size and strength, he was considerable upside as an NFL player.Addionally, the former Auburn Tiger has a unique luxury: he played on every special teams unit at Auburn and will likely be a gunner in the NFL right away while he has time to mature and get better as a cover corner. With some time, Lee could develop into one of the steals in this draft. He could go as early as the late second round, but will likely be one of the first picks in the third.

10.) Charles Godfrey 5-11 204 Iowa
Godfrey brings versatility and potential at this point in the draft. He moved from safety to corner in 2006 and has the size and strength to play either position at the next level. The former Iowa Hawkeye ran in the 4.4's at the combine, showcasing tremendous athleticism. He also has solid burst in and out of his cuts, although his footwork needs some polishing. Godfrey plays a tough, passionate game and will relish big hits in run support. Overall technique must improve if he wants to play corner in the NFL and his hips are still a little stiff for man schemes. Godfrey also brings special teams potential and was Iowa's 2005 Special Teams Player of the Year. His instincts at the corner position must also improve, but that should come with more experience at the position. Godfrey could play any defensive back spot in the NFL depending on what team decides to draft him. With his physical brand of football and special teams impact likely to be immediate, Godfrey looks like a early to mid third round prospect.

Other Players to watch: Chevis Jackson LSU, Terrell Thomas USC, Tyvon Branch Connecticut, Trae Willians South Florida, Jack Williams Kansas State

NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Tackles

2008-03-26T14:15:00.000-07:00

One elite tackle prospect per class would be an average year for the NFL Draft. Two would be extraordinary. The 2008 class has three first round caliber defensive tackle prospects, and two of those three are elite overall prospects, worthy of top 10 selections. This group possesses better talent at the top, as well as more depth into later rounds. We have not seen a defensive tackle taken inside the top 10 since 2003 when Dewayne Robertson went to the Jets #4 overall. Glenn Dorsey and Sedrick Ellis both figure to have better pro careers that Robertson, or at least the teams in need of tackles at the top of the board hope so. However, with moderate depth, teams at the end of the first round like Jacksonville and Tennessee could get good value if Kentwan Balmer falls. The same holds true as the draft continues. With so much talent at positions like wide receiver and corner, there could be quality tackles selected much lower than their talent would otherwise dictate. Teams willing to wait, could wind up with valuable contributors upfront.

1.) Glenn Dorsey 6-1 297 Louisiana State University
If not for the poor schematic fit and lingering injury issues, Glenn Dorsey would be getting more attention as a potential #1 overall pick. As a senior, Dorsey won the Outland Trophy, Bronko Nagurski Award,Lombardi Award, Lott Award and SEC Defensive Player of the Year while leading LSU to a National Championship. His play, coupled with his leadership even garnered him some national media consideration for the Heisman Trophy. Powerful and athletic, Dorsey was a terror for opposing offenses, spending most of his time eating up double teams and allowing his teammates to make plays. When opponents were not smart enough to double him, Dorsey regularly whipped offensive lineman using his explosive burst and quickness. With an array of pass-rush moves, Dorsey can get to the quarterback as well as ball carrier in the backfield, racking up 7 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss as a senior. Dorsey has been compared to Warren Sapp with his combination of strength and agility. Dorsey's lack of ideal bulk may be a concern particularly with his history of leg injuries. Scouts wonder if he can hold up to an NFL pounding week in and week out against the behemoth lineman he will consistently face. Dorsey would have been a top 10 pick in the 2007 Draft had he declared. In 2008, he is a lock for the top 5 and could even go the Rams at #2. Falling past Oakland at #4 seems completely out of the question.

2.) Sedrick Ellis 6-1 309 University of Southern California
Dorsey was billed as the top tackle in the nation last season, but this former Trojan is not far behind. Ellis, like Dorsey, combines serious athletic ability with technique and power. Ellis can beat interior lineman with his initial burst, but also possesses superior hand placement and rip moves to disengage from blockers. He uses his long arms and quick reflexes to win inside. Once the ball is snapped, Ellis is relentless is pursuit and constantly works towards the ball. He has played nose tackle and the three-technique, giving him great versatility. As a senior Ellis recorded 8.5 sacks to go with 12.5 tackles for loss, in a conference loaded with lineman talent like C Mike Pollak and G Roy Shuening. In post-season workouts, Ellis was even more impressive. No one could block him at the Senior Bowl, even against the best players in the country. Some scouts may actually rank Ellis above Dorsey because of Dorsey's leg concerns. Ellis has had some injury problems of his own and missed time with ankle and knee injuries over his career. He reminds me of former Viking tackle John Randle in the way he can rush the passer from inside, and is one of the best pass-rushers in this draft. Kansas City loves this kid, and if Jake Long is gone they could take Ellis, even if Matt Ryan is still on the board. If they pass, the Ravens and Bengals would certainly make sure he does not fall out of the top 10.

3.) Kentwan Balmer 6-4 308 North Carolina
Despite Balmer's first round grade, the gap between #2 and #3 here cannot be understated. It is the first major drop-off in talent at the position, as Balmer projects as a late first round pick. That said, Balmer has the talent of players like Dorsey and Ellis, his effort simply has not translated into production. The former Tar Heel possesses a large frame and adequate bulk, with room to get even bigger and stronger. He will push the pocket and can really overpower offensive lineman with his strength and leverage, although he plays a bit high at times. Balmer uses his tremendous physical tools to beat his man, and if he matches his effort to his skills, he would be something special. The biggest concern lies when he does not beat his man initially. He has a tendency to give up on plays and not pursue with passion. In fact, until his senior year, Balmer was considered a talented underachiever. In 2007, the proverbial light went on and we saw the player we had hoped for. Scouts will have to determine whether they believe Balmer will stay motivated after "making it" to the NFL. Teams like Washington, Jacksonville, and Tennessee use him and he certainly would not make it past San Francisco at #30.

4.) Pat Sims 6-2 310 Auburn
Our first junior prospect on the list, Sims has excellent athletic talent and tools and may be the quickest player on this list. His first step gets him into the backfield in a hurry where he can be disruptive as a pass-rusher or run-stopper. For having only played two full years, Sims has developed a solid pass-rush game, using his hands to rip through and get to the quarterback as well as to shed blockers. With his strength and size, Sims could easily play in a number of schemes and systems, although he is best suited as a one gap tackle. At this point, Sims remains somewhat unpolished. He does not possess stellar instincts or awareness and can get lost. While Sims plays with passion and a mean streak, he has a tendency to lose his fundamentals when he is tired and scouts will have to determine whether or not he is mentally tough enough be coached effectively. Sims may not be a starter as a rookie, but with his upside, a team in the second round could get a player with disruptive potential down the road. A team like New Orleans or Baltimore could take Sims at the top of the second round.

5.) Trevor Laws 6-1 304 Notre Dame
Laws has developed a reputation as an overachiever. Regardless of how talented a player may be, for a defensive lineman to accumulate 112 tackles in a season, you have to have special ability. To be fair, Notre Dame did not have many players who could make a tackle, but Laws was one of the few play-makers and put up middle linebacker numbers from a 3-4 end spot. Laws does not have superior athletic talent, but is unrelenting in pursuit and possesses a great nose for the ball. The former Irish star gets off the ball quickly and can re-direct offensive lineman with superior balance. His spin move is extremely difficult to handle, even for tackles. Laws lacks the power to consistently fight through doubles and could be run on at the point of attack. He put to bed some of the "overachiever" tags with a strong performance at the Senior Bowl and the combine. A team like Miami, picking for the Chargers at the bottom of the second round could be an ideal fit and middle to late second round seems about right.

6.) Marcus Harrison 6-3 317 Arkansas
The tackle class falls off again at this spot. Harrison has the talent of a top 60 pick, but major concerns about health and character have him considerably lower on boards than his ability may warrant. Harrison put up one of the best 40 times of any of the top tackles and has good straight line speed and quickness. However, he does not have much of a polished pass-rush game. He relies on his physical tools to disrupt in the passing game and could use some coaching and technique work to develop a go-to pass-rush move. Harrison takes great angles in pursuit and has a high-intensity motor to track down plays from the backside. But the former Razorback has had his share of injury problems which has stunted his development to some degree. Harrison has had knee surgery to repair a torn ACL, and another to repair cartilage, as well as ankle issues. Also, while at Arkansas, Harrison was suspended after being arrested on felony drug charges and his character will be a major concern for teams as they go through the interview process. Harrison could sneak into the bottom of the second round to a team like Indianapolis, Dallas or Jacksonville, but could slide all the way into the top of the third which is where he belongs.

7.) Joseph "Red" Bryant 6-4 318 Texas A&M
Some of the other defensive tackles in this class have questions about size and bulk, but not Bryant. He uses his strength and size to occupy multiple blockers inside and can really clog the middle. While he may not have a diverse rush game, Bryant has the potential to develop into a bulldozing bull rusher. In order to do so, he will have to improve his hand placement and develop pass-rush moves. The numbers are not going to jump off the page, but Bryant was a permanent captain and leader of the Aggie defense. He also has a knack for getting his hands up and knocking down passes, as well as extra points. Durability is a concern after a 2006 ACL tear, but Bryant played his senior season and stayed relatively healthy. Bryant may never be a high-impact player along the front line, but his superlative experience and leadership, as well as his strength and size, will make him attractive to teams looking to sure up their run defense. Bryant still has some upside and projects as a mid third round pick

8.) Dre Moore 6-4 305 Maryland
At this point in the draft, many of the players remaining are projects. Marchondray, or "Dre", Moore has been hard to place for scouts. Physically, Moore has everything you could want from a dtackle, with solid burst and size that you just cannot learn. His numbers a senior, 63 tackles (8.5 for loss) and 6 sacks, make him seem like a solid prospect particularly in the ACC. Plus Moore has been impressive in workouts with sub 4.9 40's, flashing more athletic ability than the film would indicate. Moore plays too high too much, and must improve his leverage to be effective against bigger and better lineman on the next level. He has improved each year at Maryland and yet still remains extremely raw. His instincts are just OK and that leads him to play out of position at time. Regardless of speed, if you are not in the right place, it is difficult to make a play. The team who drafts this former Maryland Terrapin, will need to be patient and give Moore the kind of coaching he needs. Moore also must get stronger, particularly in his lower body to improve his anchor against the run. Moore could be very attractive to teams willing to wait out his development. He can penetrate and has the physical tools to be a difference-maker in the opposition's backfield. Expect Moore to go in the late third round to a team looking to add depth, rather than a starter, to their defensive front.

9.) Letroy Guion 6-3 303 Florida State
Guion could be another "project" player, who has outstanding upside. He probably should have gone back to Florida State for another year, but has flashed the ability to be explosive and could be highly disruptive on the next level with some steady improvement. Guion has glimmers of brilliance, then will disappear for extended stretches. As such, he has not had particularly strong numbers. On the other hand, Guion has a strong first step and can drive offensive lineman back with his initial burst. He has agility and lateral quickness to make plays down the line. Guion simply lacks great instincts at this point and does not always make the right reads. Despite some character concerns off the field, on the field Guion has the potential to give you everything you could ask for and plays hard every play until the whistle. With barely a year as a starter, Guion declared for the draft, which is particularly bizarre when you consider than it followed the academic integrity scandal which forced Guion and many of his teammates to miss their bowl game. However, Guion could really be a steal for a team at the bottom of the third or top of the fourth.

10.) Demario Pressley 6-3 301 North Carolina State
Pressley could be considered a project, but the term "underachiever" seems more appropriate. Pressly has the physical tools to be disruptive, something he has shown at times in the ACC. However, he disappears too often, taking himself out of plays with poor technique, or over aggressiveness. Pressly has a devastating first step and can get up the field in a blink, something that could make him a solid three technique on the next level. However, he sometimes can get out of position because he does not play under control within his own abilities. He is not going to anchor your run defense, but has adequate strength at the point. Maryland's hybrid system gives him some versatility as he is used to playing multiple positions. He has played with big time NFL talent like Mario Williams and yet never really produced despite the attention given to his teammates. Pressly has enough potential and upside to warrant consideration in the fourth round and he could go to just about any team with his ability to play multiple positions and schemes.

NFL Draft Preview: Defensive Ends

2008-03-22T11:40:00.000-07:00

The best teams in the NFL have them, and every team wants them: guys who can put pressure on the quarterback. If you look at the teams who made the playoffs last season, all of them, with the exception of perhaps Jacksonville, have at least one player who opposing offenses have to account for in the passing game because of his ability to get after the quarterback. The 2008 draft class has a number of guys who will be able to come in right away and contribute, including at least 4 or 5 first round picks. The group is deep and extremely talented, and the #1 overall pick may very well come from this group. Also, in all likelihood, the defensive rookie of the year with be one of these players. With outstanding talent at the top, and depth through the bottom, teams in the third and fourth rounds could still be drafting eventual rookie starters.

1.) Chris Long 6-3 272 Virginia
While Glenn Dorsey got most of the press for defensive linemen during the college football season, ACC teams saw the most disruptive defensive player in the country week in and week out. Part of that was because Dorsey battled injuries much of the season, but you cannot understate the kind of impact Chris Long had for the Cavaliers. Long recorded 14 sacks and 19 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. His motor never stops as he works toward the ball carrier. Long jolts offensive lineman, driving them back and then can use his strength and leverage to drive opposing tackles on their heels. While there have been questions about his athleticism, he put in one of the most impressive work outs at the combine running a 4.75 40, had a 34 inch vertical jump, and a defensive line best 4.21 20 yard shuttle. Long may not have elite speed overall, but his 10 yard split in the 40 was excellent, showing the kind of burst evident when you watch him play. His knack for disengaging from linemen prevents him being being held, something that will be critical when he matches up against the massive offensive tackles in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins reportedly have sincere interest in drafting Chris Long #1 overall, but if they does not, there is no way he slips out of the top 5.

2.) Vernon Gholston 6-3 266 Ohio State
To give you an idea of the kind of talent this kid has, Gholston dominated #1 OL Jake Long against Michigan, getting to the quarterback 3 times and recording another tackle behind the line. Furthermore, Gholston ran a 4.6 40, a combine best 37 reps of 225, and a defensive lineman best 35.5 inch vertical jump. Rumors has it, Miami will consider taking Gholston #1 overall to add this special edge rusher. Gholston has the physical tools (not to mention a body-builder physique) to be the best defensive player to come out of this year's draft, and has a legitimate chance to be the best overall player from '08 when his career is over. Gholston utilizes his strength and superior quickness to beat offensive lineman in a plethora of ways. He has good hips and uses his hands well to beat offensive lineman with swim moves, power moves, and double moves. He can finesse his away around linemen with his quickness, or just push the pocket with his brute strength. The only knock on Gholston is that he simply disappears at times. Probably not a perfect fit for the 4-3, Gholston could be a terror as a rush linebacker in a 3-4 defense and reminds many scouts of San Diego's Shawn Merriman. This former Buckeye has top 10 talent and could even go in the top 5 picks in April.

3.) Derrick Harvey 6-5 271 Florida
Not much separates the next two players on the list. Harvey was considered the third best defensive end when he declared early, but Merling's stock has risen dramatically through the off-season evaluation process. Harvey has been a standout for the Gators the past two seasons totaling 19.5 sacks to go with 29.5 tackles for loss. His timed speed (4.8 range) does not tell the whole story. He utilizes an extremely quick first step to get under offensive linemen and turn the corner. Although just a junior, Harvey displays great instincts and moves well laterally to pursue on running plays. However, his lack of ideal bulk and strength will make him vulnerable to power running games to his side. He put on some weight and improved his strength for the Combine, something he hopes will show he is dedicated to improving his areas of weakness. Harvey's spin move is devastating and his lateral quickness make his double moves difficult to mirror. He plays too high at times and could be vulnerable to cut blocks. Harvey has experience with his hand on the ground and as a stand up rusher. Both roles could suit him at the next level, and that versatility will make him appealing to teams in the middle of the first round.

4.) Phillip Merling 6-4 276 Clemson
Merling is a natural pass-rusher, but lacks the kind of athletic ability of the men above him. He uses excellent pursuit angles to negate his lack of quickness, although he has a good first step. Merling uses his hands well to fend off cut blocks, as well as fight off offensive lineman. His tackling skills are top-notch as he recorded 78 tackles as a senior, a huge number for a defensive lineman(Vernon Gholston only had 35). Unlike Harvey, Merling does not have great instincts and his aggressiveness gets him caught on delays and screens. In addition, he will not drive lineman back using his power and lacks great strength to anchor against the run. His go-to move, the swim, is very effective and he can redirect using his lateral quickness. Clemson used him at end, tackle, and stood him up and its a wonder how offenses did anything with Merling and Gaines Adams coming off the corners. Merling will not blow anyone away with his explosive ability, but always seems to be effective. He should go off the board somewhere in the teens in the first round.

5.) Calais Campbell 6-8 290 Miami (Fla.)
Once considered the top underclassman along the defensive line, Campbell's stock has fallen after a disappointing junior campaign. As a sophomore, Campbell had 20.5 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks, not to mention 84 tackles overall. However, in 2007 Campbell barely had half those numbers and he struggled with his consistency, drawing double teams on a regular basis. He has unparalleled size and the strength to anchor against the run. While his timed speed is only average, he gets off the edge quickly and uses solid technique to keep blockers from latching on. He has several effective pass-rush moves and has good agility despite his size. He can use that lateral quickness to get push on stunts and blitzes inside. Campbell could be really disruptive in the passing lane with his long frame, but does not get his hands up often enough. Which player will he be on the next level? He has a ton of upside, but could disappear much like he did too often last season. Despite that, his talent is undeniable and he could go in the late first or early second round.

6.) Quinten Groves 6-3 259 Auburn
While Vernon Gholston has powerful explosion to get into the backfield, no pass-rusher in this year's draft has the kind of quickness Groves utilizes to wreck havoc. His numbers were done as a senior because he made a transition to playing more outside linebacker. However, the season before he had 9.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Showing his superlative athletic ability, Groves ran sub 4.6 40's at the combine, second best among defensive lineman. In addition, Groves takes good angles in pursuit and relentlessly tracks the ball. While he does not possess great strength, Groves uses leverage very effectively to get low and push under lineman's pads. He certainly needs some polishing with his technique in drops, as well as his fundamentals as an end. Right now, his athletic ability has carried him through and he will need some teaching to be effective. Groves will fit best in a 3-4 system where he can fly around the field using his outstanding athletic ability. He has first round potential, but is a second prospect at this point. Expect him to go early on in the second round.

7.) Lawrence Jackson 6-4 271 USC
Unlike Groves, Jackson will not impress anyone with his speed and athletic ability. He has the size and strength to play both run and pass at the next level, and will not be bullied by bigger offensive lineman. The former Trojan lacks great initial burst, but has the quickness to get after quarterbacks, or move down to line to take down running backs. Jackson's solid technique allows him to keep separation with blockers and one-on-one he can be tough to handle even without fully-developed rush moves. Despite his lack of top-flight athletic prowess, you cannot argue with his production: 4 seasons with double digit TFL totals as well as two seasons over 10 sacks. He did play with tremendous talent around him on Pete Carroll's defense, but someone still has to make the plays and Jackson did so with regularity. Jackson belongs in a 4-3 system where he can work in space against tackles, as he struggles to split double teams. He has some experience inside and could play end in a 3-4 system, but that does not suit his skills nearly as well. Expect him to come off the board in the middle of the second round.

8.) Cliff Avril 6-3 253 Purdue
Avril's stock has been on the rise since the season ended. Avril blazed a 4.51 40 time at the combine and showed great quickness and burst. He moves extremely well and can move laterally, getting down the line of scrimmage to make tackles. At Purdue, Avril played both linebacker and defensive end and can get into the backfield to make plays at either position (He had 15 tackles for loss in each of the last two season, at two different positions). However, he does not have a wide array of pass-rush moves and relies very heavily on his athletic talent. Avril's motor is non-stop and he does not take plays off. With a clear position and fit in a system, he could really be a monster. This seems low for someone with the physical tools Avril has, and it may seem strange having him at end when most scouts consider him a linebacker prospect. Basically, Avril best fits a 3-4 system at outside linebacker, but played at Purdue with his hand down and will need considerable work to develop the drops and pass-recognition skills necessary to play linebacker on the next level. Regardless of what position you project him, he is still a second round pick.

9.) Kendall Langford 6-5 295 Hampton
The talent pool drops off here to some degree. Langford is one of the top small school prospects in this year's draft. Langford is also one of the biggest defensive end prospects in the draft and he could even get bigger and play tackle, something he has done at Hampton. He has the power to fight through double teams both inside and outside and could play end in either the 4-3 or 3-4, as well as tackle in the 4-3. Versatility does not mean athleticism in this case. Langford does not have an explosive first step, yet he manages to consistently get into backfields. In four years at Hampton, Langford has 56 tackles for loss including two seasons with 15.5. That is in addition to 24.5 sacks. Although Langford has played lesser competition, he has faced double teams for the last two years and still been just as productive. Although he does not have great explosion off the corner, he fights every down and will not get pushed back. His versatility makes him an intriguing small school prospect. He could go as high as the third round.

10.)Darrell Robertson 6-4 255 Georgia Tech
Darrell Robertson tore a pectoral muscle preparing for the off-season, but was extremely disruptive at Tech last season and impressed scouts at the Senior Bowl. Robertson has a good burst off the ball and was proficient getting into the backfield with 10 tackles behind the line in his senior campaign. He has good lateral agility to get down the line and really pursues hard. Robertson's bulk is a concern and he may struggle holding up against the run as a 4-3 end. No matter what system he plays in, he will have to get stronger. He does not use his hands particularly well to shed blocks or avoid cuts. Robertson may not be an every down player, but has the potential to be a situational pass-rusher in a 4-3 system and a great special teams player. The injury remains a lingering concern, although scouts have said it will not effect him that much. Expect him to go in the third round.

NFL Draft Preview: Safties

2008-03-16T14:45:00.000-07:00

The 2008 safety class mirrors the linebacker class in terms of talent. Kenny Phillips and Reggie Smith are the only players worthy of first round consideration, but the rest of the class has depth and talent in the early and middle rounds. Players like Simeon Castille will have to transition to safety from corner, while Reggie Smith has experience playing both. Safeties do not suffer from the same kind of allocation based on schemes like linebackers or even corners might. In fact, a safeties have less specificity because responsibilities are similar across zone and man schemes with the major difference being in Cover 2 systems. This class is not nearly as solid at the top as the 2007 class, but it has enough talent to give teams a lift for the 2008 season.

1.) Kenny Phillips 6-2 212 Miami (Fla.)
At one time, Phillips was considered a top 15, even top 10 player. As a sophomore with Brandon Meriweather, the two were one of the best safety tandems in the country. However, Phillips' junior season was somewhat disappointing, although his supporting cast was not as good. That has hurt his stock to some degree, but he is still the top safety in this year's draft. A starter since his true freshman year, Phillips has had at least 70 tackles in three seasons, and 80 or more twice. He is extremely athletic and ran sub 4.5 40's at the combine, and uses his quickness to break on the ball while it is in the air. His speed and aggressiveness can also get him into trouble because he tends to bite on fakes, or over pursue. Phillips reads quarterback's eyes and can recognize routes very quickly. But he lacks great ball skills and does not get many interceptions. His size could be a problem in run support as he does not have the strength to shed bigger blockers. Phillips is not a great tackler and does not break down consistently, but he can deliver big hits on receivers across the middle. Phillips has the cover skills and speed to play corner, but his awareness and reading ability make him an intriguing safety prospect. May not be a top 10 player on most boards, but a team at the bottom of the first round could be getting a steal.

2.) Reggie Smith 6-1 199 Oklahoma
Smith is one of the most versatile defensive prospect in this draft. He has experience playing all of the defensive back positions, but he seems most suited to play safety at the next level. While that versatility seems like a plus, Smith does not have great technique for a corner, although he his natural athletic ability gives him excellent fluidity in his hips to stay with receivers even on double moves. Smith is a more physical player than Phillips and his time at strong safety makes him a much better run support player. In addition, he is a better tackler than Phillips, particularly in space. His biggest weakness as a corner is his technique and in a man coverage scheme that could really hurt him with some teams. However a team like Green Bay who values physical corners, as well as teams playing Cover 2 schemes will really like Smith's toughness and physicality. Regardless of whether teams draft him to play corner or safety, he is a late first round or early second round prospect.

3.) DaJuan Morgan 6-0 205 North Carolina State
The safety pool drops off quickly after Phillips and Smith, but Morgan represents the "best of the rest." Morgan only has one year as a full-time starter, as a hip-injury has limited him through his career. Despite ideal experience, Morgan is a smart, vocal player and was a leader on the Wolf Pack defense. He was extremely productive as a junior, totaling 97 tackles for NC State and was a special team ace earlier in his career. Morgan does not have idea range for a free safety in the NFL, but is aggressive and physical in the box while supporting the run. His aggressiveness does not necessarily translate into effective tackling technique and he too often looks for the knock out punch rather than just being sound and wrapping up. Morgan does not have explosive quickness and will have a tough time recovering after a wrong read. That lack of quickness will also hinder him in coverage on slot receivers and tight ends. Overall, Morgan is a physical player who is most suited to play in a zone coverage scheme where he is free to support in the run game. He is a late second or early third round prospect.

4.) Thomas DeCoud 6-1 207 California
Thomas DeCoud is one of the more interesting prospects in this year's draft. Tall and athletic, the former Cal standout is smooth and was one of the big defensive players in the Pac-10. He was voted the team's MVP after recording 116 tackles in 2007 including six double figure tackle games. That is even more remarkable when you consider DeCoud was not a full time starter until last season. As a result, his recognition skills are still improving. Also, his coverage skills are still improving and has room to upgrade as a man-to-man defender. Despite his lean frame, DeCoud plays with tremendous tenacity and can lay serious hits on receivers across the middle. However, he can get a little overzealous going for the knock-out punch and not use solid fundamentals when tackling. As a special teams player DeCoud has 6 blocked kicks in his career giving him great special teams potential. DeCoud is an underrated prospect who has enough upside to warrant a selection in the mid-third round.

5.) Marcus Griffin 5-10 201 Texas
Griffin is another one of many former Longhorn defensive backs with NFL skills. He is a strong and an aggressive player who tackles very well. However, his speed is just average and he does not have much upside as a cover safety. While the ball is in the air, Griffin does not have great instincts, or ball skills to make the big play. He seems like a strong safety, but will need to get bigger and stronger to take on the bigger blockers at the next level. In addition to his lack of speed, his upside is somewhat limited. It also limits the defensive schemes he can play effectively on the next level. He lacks the range to play free safety in a cover 3 scheme, and could be better suited in a cover 2 system. If nothing else, he has special team potential and may never be a starter. In the right system however, he has the skill-set to succeed. His brother, Michael was a first round pick by the Tennessee Titans last year and while Marcus does not have the talent of his brother, he does have enough talent to make his way into the late third round in April.

6.) Tyrelle Johnson 6-0 207 Arkansas State
The next two guys on the list having seen their stock sky-rocket since the NFL Combine and are two of the most athletically gifted players on the defensive side of the ball. Johnson put up a defensive back best 27 reps of 225 at the Combine, as well as tops in the broad jump for safeties. Add that to a low 4.4 40 time and Johnson put together one of the most impressive work-outs of the week. While he may not always play up to his work-out numbers, at Arkansas State Johnson was highly productive. In 2007, Johnson recorded 94 tackles and snagged 6 picks. Certainly, he did not play against top-tier teams every week, but he dominated against the weaker competition. Johnson's combination of speed and strength give him great versatility in both pass coverage and in run support. He likes to come up and put a lick on someone, but can struggling shedding blockers. He does not have great fluidity in his hips and that makes it hard for him to match up against slot receivers, but his great speed negates that to some degree against tight ends. Johnson's superb athletic ability and intelligence give up immense upside. A team in the third round could certainly take a gamble on the former Indians stand out.

7.) Joshua Barrett 6-2 223 Arizona State
This is actually exactly where I had Barrett ranked mid-season, and if not for his virtuoso performance in Indy, Barrett could have fallen out of the top 10. Barett's 4.35 40 was far and away the fastest time of any safety, and was actually faster than top ranked corners Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, and Aqib Talib. Physically, Barrett has every tool to be a Pro Bowl player at the next level. He sheds blocks well and is extremely aggressive. However, that aggression leads him to take false steps. Additionally, Barrett is susceptible to play action fakes and his recovery speed is not nearly as good as his timed speed would indicate. Also, his speed belies that fact that he does not open his hips effectively and will struggle one-on-one with slot receivers. Inconsistency has been Barrett's biggest problem. In fact, he was benched during his senior year for a brief period. There are also some concerns about his durability after losing his freshman year to a shoulder injury. Barrett's incredible physical tools make him an attractive prospect, but his inconsistencies will keep him out of the top two rounds. Barrett could fall to the bottom of the third round, or even in the early fourth.

8.) Tom Zbikowski 5-11 211 Notre Dame
Notre Dame's defense has been exposed in big games in recent years and quality college QB's like Troy Smith, JeMarcus Russell, and Matt Ryan has abused the coverage skills of ND defensive backs in big games. Tom Zbikowski has been a starter on that defense for 3 straight years. While Zbikowski may have been one of the few bright spots for the Golden Domers defensive backfield, he has not played well against top-level offensive talent. Matt Ryan carved Zbikowski and that ND defense in the fall in a Eagles win. The fomer Golden-Gloves boxer is extremely tough and aggressive, but can get caught out of position at times due to poor reads or over-pursuit. Zbikowski lacks the speed to make up for such mistakes and therefore is susceptible to giving up the big play. When he is in position, he has solid ball skills and can really be explosive with the ball in his hand as he was ND's punt returner. Limited athletically, Zbikowski has only average recovery speed and may not have the range to cover the deep middle. He may never be a starter on the next level, but his experience on special teams, particularly in the return game gives him some upside. Zbikowski should go somewhere in the fourth round.

9.) Simeon Castille 6-0 195 Alabama
Castille seems to fit the mold of a free safety perfectly; he is an assertive corner with excellent ball skills and awareness, but lacks top end speed and agility to run with top-tier receivers. He will have to add strength to hold up in the run game, however he takes solid angles and fills well in support. Castille is not a physical tackler, but does lock on in space. If there is one place Castille's corner skills could get into trouble at the safety position it is his aggressiveness. Castille has a tendency to gamble and as a safety it could make him vulnerable to play action fakes. His lack of ideal corner footwork should be negated to some degree at safety as he will really only have to match up against slot receivers and tight ends where his athletic ability should get him through. His stock has slipped because of an August arrest for disorderly conduct. Castille also missed the 2005 Cotton Bowl because of academic failings. Castille still has some upside as he gets stronger and gets used to playing safety. As a result, expect him to go in the late fourth or early fifth round.

10.) Craig Steltz 6-1 213 Lousiana State University
Steltz could be a case of excellent college player whose skills simply will not translate as well into the NFL. On the other hand, he might just be an instinctive player with limited athletic ability who happens to always be around the ball making plays. To be fair, he is the latter, however teams will have to determine how his limitations fit within their particular system. Some teams could have Steltz as a top 5 safety prospect, and others close to 10 or 12. Steltz had 6 INT's last season and has great ball skills. However, he does not have great speed, or quickness to recover when beaten. His range as a college safety wmay not be sufficient to play center field in the NFL. He has the strength and toughness to make plays in the box, but is not big enough at this point to hold up against bigger blockers. In addition, he only has one season as a full-time starter and he could have benefited from playing on an absolutely loaded L.S.U. defense. Overall, Steltz may be a tad underrated, and at the very least projects as an excellent special teamer on Sundays. He probably belongs in the early fifth round, but a team could really fall in love with his toughness and productivity, taking a risk on him in the fourth round.

You Can't Blame Wade

2008-03-10T10:20:00.000-07:00

The Miami Heat announced today that Dwyane Wade would miss the rest of the season to rest his surgically repaired knee which has been bothering him all season long. As Marc Stein of ESPN.com put it after Saturday's quasi-double header,we have expected him to be "DNP Lottery," implying Wade would sit because the Heat are atrocious and have no shot at the playoffs. With Wade out the rest of the year, it now seems assured the Heat will wind up with a top 3 pick in June's NBA Draft,although with a soft schedule, they may win more games than people think.

Undoubtedly, if the Heat were in playoff contention, Wade would play through the pain and try and help his team win, but I want to point something out: In that two for one saturday night, Wade played 39 minutes and all he did was score 24 points on 11-20 shooting and dish out 8 dimes. Oh, right, that is on a knee that will keep him out the remainder of the season. I know, I know, the Heat are done so there is no reason to risk further injury by playing the South Beach super-star. But, Wade has been dogged and criticized all season long for being on a team with Shaq (now Shawn Marion) and Pat Riley and only winning 11 games. Reggie Miller recently said during a Lakers-Heat game that if Kobe Bryant and Flash switched places, the Heat would be in the playoffs. Just yesterday Marc Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy didn't place Wade in the top 5 shooting guards in the NBA (to be fair, Van Gundy had him at 5 1/2). Really??

Without getting into too much data analysis we can briefly compare Lebron and Wade's career averages.

Wade: 23.9 PPG, 6.5 AST, 4.8 RB, 1.7 STL on 48.1% Shooting
James: 27.3 PPG, 6.6 AST, 6.9 RB, 1.8 STL on 46.7% Shooting

To put that into perspective Lebron James has taken 7904 shots in his career while Flash just 5428 according to basketball-reference.com. Assuming Wade took as many shots as Lebron and still made 48.1%, that is an extra 1191 buckets, or another 2382 points. Over Wade's 315 games played that is an extra 7.56 points per game. Not to mention, it would have been in nearly 3500 less minutes.

Now that I have delved dangerously into John Hollinger territory, we ultimately measure superstars by the jewelry they wear. Not the stuff they show us on cribs, but the championship rings. Michael Jeffrey Jordan isn't the face of basketball because he stuck his tongue out, or dunked on anyone and everyone. He won 6 rings, made his teammates better, and won games. He took the Bulls from the valley to the mountain top, something we're still waiting for the heir to the thrown, Prince James (thank you Skip Bayless) to do.

During the 2001 and 2002 seasons the Miami Heat had a combined 61 victories and only 25 in 2002. Enter Dwyane Wade. In 2003, the Heat went 42-40 (a +17 improvement) and went to the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. In comparison the Cleveland Cavaliers were 17-65 the season before they drafted Lebron James. In 2003, with Lebron, they finished 35-47, a +18 improvement for the Cavs. It should also be noted that Lebron had 3 other 15.0+ per game scores on that Cavs team, while Wade only had two.

By 2004, the Heat had Shaq and a shot at the Eastern Conference Championship and another +17 game improvement to 59-23, Miami's first 50 win season since 2000(The Cavs won 42 games, a +7 improvement). Shaq got a ton of credit for putting the Heat on top, but Wade was absolutely unstoppable in the playoffs. The Heat swept both the Nets and Wizards and the former Marquette Star averaged nearly 26, 9, and 6 boards on 50% shooting against the Nets. Then, to outdo himself, he went for 31,8, and 7 rebounds a game in the series against Washington. Then in the series against the Pistons, Wade scored 42 in Game 2 and 36 in Game 3 before injuring his rib in Game 5. That injury kept him out in the 6th, and limited him in the 7th. If not for Wade's sinusitis, the flu, and the aforementioned rib muscle, the Heat probably would have held onto their 3-2 series lead against the Pistons, and had a great shot to beat the Spurs in the 2005 Finals.

Have we forgotten what happened 20 months ago when Dwyane Wade was putting on one of the greatest individual show in recent Finals memory? How about 16 free throws a game, shattering the old NBA Finals attempts record? Then there is 34.7 points per game in the Finals, the third highest average all-time. I understand, the Mavs choked, but after the 2006 Finals, Wade was being called the closest thing to MJ since MJ. Has he really fallen so far? Has Lebron really widened the gap between the two? Is there really even a gap?

Ok that is ancient history by sport standards. The Heat are 11-50 and Wade is done. The arena is empty on South Beach, people would rather party than watch the Heat get blown out again, or lose another close game. Wade has carried this team on his shoulders since Day 1. I don't want to hear that Lebron has too and look, he has higher scoring numbers. I already showed that if Wade was a Lebron-style ball-hog, he'd have Oscar Robertson-type numbers. And it wasn't until last year's playoffs and this season that Lebron started showing up in the fourth quarter. It wasn't until this season Lebron started making free throws. Since Wade's second year he has been one of the best closers in the NBA. If the Heat were in games late, especially if they were ahead, Wade would take over.

Wade's body has taken a beating and he still has carried his team, still played hard, and hasn't taken garbage shots. He could be padding his stats right now, hoping to get another huge contract. Instead, Wade is getting 6.9 assists per game, 12th in the NBA and behind only Allen Iverson in shooting guards. Only 3 players in the NBA this season are in the top 10 in scoring and the top 15 in assists: Wade, AI, Lebron. I understand Wade had the lowest winning percentage of any All-Star ever. Kobe couldn't take his team all the way without help, that is how his team wound up in the lottery to grab Andrew Bynum. Only since the Lakers picked up Gasol and Bynum started playing like an All-Star have the Lakers been in the championship discussion. Wade's team is terrible. Shawn Marion is the only player who could start on just about every other team in the league. Udonis Haslem could start on maybe half. Beyond that, the team has lost Jason Kapono, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey from its championship team and replaced them with a bunch of backups.

Wade's arc was still rising when Shane Battier dislocated his shoulder last season. We still see the flashes of his brilliance when he splits 3 defenders and scores on a reverse lay-up. Wade has battled through the shoulder injury and the soreness from off-season knee-surgery all season and still managed to put up all-star numbers. The Heat are rebuilding, but they will do it around one of the best young players in the game. His team's record belies his unique gifts. Fall down 7, stand up 8, that was the commercial. Put Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley or DeAndre Jordan next to a healthy and rested Wade and Marion next season and I think you'll see: The 2007-08 Miami heat are terrible, but you can't blame Wade.

NFL Draft Preview: Centers/Guards

2008-03-10T08:02:00.000-07:00

The rest of the offensive line pool beyond the tackles does not have very much to get excited about. Brandon Albert from Virginia is the only not OT prospect who has a first round grade. Beyond him, only a handful of players have even a first day grade. There is no doubt, tackle is the money-maker on the offensive line, but teams like Minnesota and San Diego, who run the ball so effectively, get strong play from their interior to run between the tackles. In addition, these interior players often have a better chance of having success right away. Top pick D'Brickashaw Ferguson of the Jets still has not settled in as a LT in the NFL, but C Nic Mangold, who was taken at the bottom of the first round, is arguably the best player on the Jets line right now. The 2008 class, while it may lack great depth or outstanding blue-chippers at the top, certainly has players capable of helping teams upfront right away.

Guards
1. Brandon Albert 6-6 309 Virginia
Albert's stock has risen considerably this season and now represents the only first round prospect along the interior. He uses his gargantuan frame and extremely long arms to keep defenders at bay. The problem is he lacks explosion and punch when making contact and isn't going to blow anyone off the line. For a man his size, Albert possesses excellent footwork and quickness in space. His mean streak and demeanor do not necessarily translate into physicality, but he is tough and versatile. Albert gets to the second level well and flashes the ability to hit moving targets when pulling around the corner. Much like former Cav D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Albert is a much better pass blocker than run blocker at this point. He does utilize outstanding technique and it can get him off balance at times. In addition, Albert seems to take plays off if he isn't play side and can't necessarily be counted on to hustle down field to throw a second or third block. Some experience at tackle gives him added versatility and appeal for teams. Albert will likely be the first interior lineman selected and a team like Pittsburgh could take him late in the first round.

2. Chilo Rachal 6-4 313 USC
Rachal possesses a significantly different skill set than Albert. The former USC Trojan is a powerful drive blocker who can get good push up front. While he is not as athletic as Albert, Rachal can turn the corner and will engulf smaller defenders like linebackers and safeties on sweeps and traps. As a pass blocker, Rachal has a solid anchor and will not get pushed back into the pocket by power rushers inside. He uses his smarts and awareness to pick up stunts and blitzes. On the other hand, he lacks ideal athleticism and will struggle against double moves particularly when nimble rush ends come inside. Utilizes solid technique overall, but does not cut-block effectively. In addition, if his defender is not where he "should" be, rather than getting in position, Rachal has a tendency to lunge and get off balance. Rachal will not be right in all offensive systems and could have used another year of polishing at USC. However, he is one of the few top-level prospects at the position and will come likely come off the board in the second round.

3. Roy Schuening 6-4 317 Oregon State
The most experienced player on this list, Schuening was a four year starter at Oregon State, playing a school record 50 consecutive games. He even started at tackle due to injuries, giving him added versatility on the next level. Schuening won't impress with great athleticism, but he is a fighter inside who uses great technique and desire, outworking defenders. Great footwork and strong anchor keeps him from getting run over or run by in pass protection.He has outstanding leadership qualities and attitude, and is the kind of tough player ever NFL team wants. The former Beaver has decent range despite not having great quickness. However, he struggles to hit moving targets on the second level when pulling. Schuening is not a violent hitter or explosive off the ball, although he is rarely out of position and uses his frame effectively to wall defenders. Although he lacks ideal physical tools, Schuening's record against top-level competition speaks for itself. He could come off the board as early as the third round.

4. Eric Young 6-4 305 Tennessee
Young played out of position at tackle more of his college career and as a result, scouts aren't sure just what they will get from the former Volunteer. In addition, Young tore his quadriceps muscle after 8 games and was lost for the season. If he checks out medically, he will still have some upside. Young's best attribute is his excellent upper body strength and initial burst. His time at tackle has given him above average pass protection skills for a guard as he slides well laterally and uses his hands well. Young does not have great athletic ability overall and struggles in space. That could mean problems being effective on the second level when pulling. Questions about durability and his true position are large concerns at this point for Eric Young. The bottom line is, we just don't really know what we'll get from him, or where he belongs. If his legs check out and he can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a solid starter at guard in the NFL. For that reason, he could go late third, but more than likely will fall to the fourth.

5. Michael McGlynn 6-5 315 Pittsburgh
McGlynn also played tackle most of his career at Pitt, although he played several games at guard his senior season. Deficiencies on the edge mean a position shift could be in McGlynn's future. He was excellent against bull rushers on the corners and plays with a solid anchor in pass sets. However, he does not have overwhelming strength or power, and lacks initial pop. The former Pitt Panthers has a great motor and will fight until the whistle. He has the ability to lock onto defenders and hold his ground. He does not take many false steps and has adequate, but not excellent initial quickness off the line. As a run blocker, McGlynn takes solid angles but his ability to make blocks in space is a question mark. He also has the ability to generate a good push playing with solid leverage rather than relying on brute strength. Unlike Young, McGlynn has been extremely durable and has a great attitude and motor. He also he versatility being able to play either guard slot or right tackle. Expect McGlynn to fall in the fourth round area.

Centers
1. Mike Pollak 6-4 299 Arizona State
Pollak's athleticism ranks as high as any in this draft at any line position. ASU moved him all over the field, pulling him to utilize his quickness and agility. For a center, that means even more because he must snap the ball and then move. As a second level blocker, Pollak is just as effective as he is up front, consistently getting his man in space. He does not possess outstanding strength and could struggle in a power running system where he is consistently asked to take on 340 pound nose tackles. Despite that, he does display excellent initial punch and push in the run game. In pass protection, Pollak does a effective job playing with balance and good knee-bend. He has the intelligence to get schemes right and recognize blitzes. He will really fit in well in a zone blocking system and is a top 50 player based on his athleticism and intangibles. That means a second round talent, but don't be surprised if he falls to the late second or even third round.

2. Steven Justice 6-3 289 Wake Forest
Justice and Pollak are very similar players and it wouldn't be surprising if teams had Justice ranked ahead of Pollak. Much like Pollak, Justice's biggest strength is his quickness and ability to work down the line. He gets in position efficiently and uses solid technique to wall defenders. Justice has the awareness to make pre-snap reads and adjustments. Justice will lock on and sustain blocks until the whistle and is always looking to get to the second level to knock people out. The biggest difference between Justice and Pollak is that Justice sometimes struggles getting his arms extended, particularly in combo blocks. Justice has struggled with consistency at times. He also lacks the strength to take on nose tackles. He started 39 consecutive games at Wake and played against some excellent defensive lines in the ACC. Like Pollak, Justice is best suited for a zone scheme and has enough ability to start with time. Justice projects as a third round pick, but a team who values him ahead of Pollak in need of a center, may take him in the late second.

3. John Sullivan 6-3 301 Notre Dame
This Golden Domer has some of the qualities guys like Justice and Pollak lack. Sullivan plays with excellent leverage and rarely gets pushed back once locked on. In addition, Sullivan has better size and strength. He has a strong anchor, giving him a better chance against power rushers inside and plays with incredible passion. Unfortunately for Sullivan, he does not have the kind of mobility as the guys ahead of him. He plays off-balance at time and will lunge a little too much. Interestingly, he is an effective cut blocker, but scouts believe he falls in love with the cut and gets lazy at times. A disappointing senior season has not kept Sullivan out of the top three center prospects, which speaks both to his abilities and the depth of the position in 2008. Sullivans strength and passion compared to the undersized center ahead of him, will make him attractive to many teams because of his ability to play in multiple offensive systems. Sullivan is a late third round early fourth round talent and he will likely go somewhere in the mid-rounds.

4. Cody Wallace 6-4 296 Texas A&M
If you were to go teach the center position, Wallace would not be the guy to look at. However, Wallace has great football knowledge and awareness and always seems to be in position. He also plays with a nasty attitude and loves to fight in the trenches. He does take false steps and can play out of control at times, lunging at defenders. His play at A&M was erratic, but no one ever questioned his desire or intensity. Wallace possesses tremendous upper body strength and once he latches on, he has the ability to sustain to the whistle. While not superiorly built in terms of size, Wallace plays with a wide, strong base and can match-up with bigger, physical players inside. Recognizes the blitz well, but Wallace lacks the athletic ability to get in proper position against quicker players and that is when he gets in trouble lunging. There is simply no denying his 36 straight starts playing in the physical Big 12 Conference against some of the best defenses in the nation. Wallace has some starting potential, but has limited upside. That makes him a late fourth round or fifth round pick.

5. Kory Lichtensteiger 6-2 298 Bowling Green
While the term "overachiever" seems overused and poorly defined, we can loosely apply it to this 4 year starter. Lichtensteiger plays with an attitude, working hard and not giving up on plays. He has solid intangibles and uses his technique to mask his lack of athletic ability. He has good punch,but not tremendous strength overall. By taking good angles, he can mask his lack of range athletically, but Lichtensteiger gets into position efficiently and can get to the second level. While he has strength, he isn't going to re-direct defenders with consistently. His balance and anchor helps him against bull rushers, but he will struggle inside against the kind of massive d-tackles in the NFL. Lichtensteiger has some athletic limitations, but he understands them and has excellent knowledge and awareness. What you see is what you get to some degree as his upside is limited. However, he has experience at guard and center and that versatility will give him better value for teams looking to add overall depth along the line. He probably comes off the board in the fifth round.

NFL Draft Preview: Offensive Tackle

2008-03-09T10:09:00.000-07:00

Offensive tackle is one of the deepest positions in this year's draft. Jake Long is a top 3 prospect and will draw consideration from the Miami Dolphins with the #1 overall pick. Between four and six tackles could be taken in the first round as the position is both deep and talented at the top. Team ssee the Giants and San Diego drawing on a top-flight pass rush to win. That model has a two-fold result: Teams will be looking to bolster their pass rush and mirror that success. Secondly, teams will look to improve their offensive lines to protect against those disruptive defenses. Championship contending teams like Patriots, Giants, Packers, Chargers, and Colts all have premium offensive lines, particularly on the corners, and it is no secret that the key to winning games is strong offensive line play. That is the reason a team like the Falcons might prefer to draft Jake Long than either Matt Ryan or Darren McFadden. The 2008 class has a good mix of left tackle and right tackle prospects, as well as a number of guys who can play either side. The group is highlighted by two top 10 overall prospects Jake Long and Ryan Clady.

1.) Jake Long 6-7 313 Michigan The consensus top offensive lineman in the draft, Long's stock has risen even higher since the combine. Long dominated workouts, putting up a position best 37 reps of 225 and was third in the 3 cone drill. He was an All-American at Michigan protecting Chad Henne's blindside, but could play either right or left tackle in the NFL. Long is a technician when blocking and plays with great knee-bend. As a run-blocker, he takes excellent angles to defenders and walls them off with that massive frame. At this point, Long is a better run blocker than pass blocker, which speaks to both his talent in the run game as well as some deficiencies in pass protection. Long is a mauler can dominate in the run game. However, he is not a great natural athlete and his quickness to the outside is not elite. He gets back in his pass sets quickly, but guys like Vernon Gholston who can get to the edge in a hurry will give him problems. Long actually lost weight when Michigan went to the zone-blocking system and with his frame, he could play in just about any system. Long probably belongs on the right side, but certainly could play either RT or LT. He is not quite to the level of Joe Thomas, but is a top 5 player in the draft and could go in the top 3.

2.) Ryan Clady 6-6 309 Boise State
Jake Long may be the top offensive line in this year's draft, but Ryan Clady is certainly not far behind. Clady declared as a junior and had he stayed in school would have likely been the first offensive lineman taken in 2009. Clady has the potential to be an even better pass-protector than Jake Long. The former Bronco has tremendous quickness getting in his pass sets. He shows the ability to mirror pass rushers even on multiple moves. Clady, unlike Long, will not struggle with speed rushers and bends his knees extremely well. Despite his size, Clady could get stronger in his lower body. He does not always drive effectively in the run game. That is partially a result of his tendency to lunge and overextend himself. At this point, Clady's inexperience may be his biggest weakness. He can get rattled and has not played against top competition. Clady may be the best true left tackle prospect in the draft. He will likely go in the top 10 and there is almost no way he'd fall outside of the top 15.

3.) Chris Williams 6-6 315 Vanderbilt
Williams has been a fast-rising prospect all season long. He has a huge frame that he uses to swallow smaller defenders. He uses his hands extremely well and can lock on. Played some guard at Vandy and as such has tremendous lateral quickness and excellent feet. Despite his work inside, Williams has a tendency to play a little soft at times and lacks a killer instinct. He isn't a crushing blocker and has somewhat of a finesse game. Part of the problem is that Williams must put on weight and add strength to be a consistent run blocker. Williams put up only 21 reps of 225 at the combine, significantly lower than the Combine best 37 by Jake Long and Ohio State's Vernon Gholston. However, that lack of testable strength has not held him back in terms of production. Williams played extremely well in the SEC this past season and had a very strong showing at the combine. With his ability to use his hands and arms to position defenders, his lack of strength is negated to some degree. Williams has a ton of upside if he can add more strength. He is a top 15 player right now, and will go somewhere between picks 12-20 in the first round.

4.) Jeffrey Otah 6-6 322 Pittsburgh
Otah is on the other end of the spectrum from the aforementioned Williams. The Nigerian-born Otah is an absolute mauler and plays with the kind of physicality you need from an NFL right tackle. He flashes the ability to dominate in the run game, moving defensive ends wherever he wants. Once he locks on, it is pretty much over for the defender. From an athletic standpoint, Otah leaves something to be desired. For a man his size, he is relatively agile, but may not have the lateral quickness to stay with speed rushers on the left side in the NFL. In addition, Otah lacks ideal experience and technique. As a result, he is relatively unpolished. However, with a little coaching, Otah has as high a ceiling as any offensive line prospect in the draft. Even with improved technique, he probably still cannot play on the left side in the NFL. As a right tackle prospect, Otah has excellent upside and has every physical tool you want to see. May not be an ideal fit for all offensive schemes, but one of the teams from 15-31 in the first round will likely find a place for him.

5.) Sam Baker 6-5 309 USC
Gosder Cherilus has gained considerable momentum since his strong showing in post-season workouts and the Senior Bowl, however Sam Baker was the #2 OT to start the season and really has not played his way out of the top five. The only reason he has fallen to this point is the idea that he does not have ideal strength or physicality. Ask the defensive ends in the Pac-10 if Sam Baker can block; I'm not sure you'll walk away thinking he ought to fall even this far. Baker has tremendous feet and agility in pass protection. His ability to slide laterally makes him particularly frustrating for speed rushers and ends who like to use swim and spin moves. Baker has played on some of the best teams in the country and in a pro-style system. You won't ask Baker to drive block his man off the ball, he can can protect a QB's blindside. While he lacks outstanding strength and physicality, Baker's feet and athleticism give him Pro Bowl type ability. Teams, particularly those who run zone offenses, will covet Baker. He could go late in the first round to a team like Green Bay. If not, he will likely be the first offensive lineman taken in the second round.

6.) Gosder Cherilus 6-6 314 Boston College
There is no reason why Cherilus cannot be a premier offensive tackle in the NFL. That being said, when you look at his physical skills, there is no reason why he shouldn't have been absolutely dominant at BC and he wasn't. Cherilus is strong and powerful at the point of attack, flashing the ability drive his man back. He has nimble feet and good balance, allowing him to get good position and hold his ground. He is a smart player with good awareness on the field, but was arrested for assault last summer so his smarts off the field have been questioned. Cherilus has struggled with speed rushers and likely belongs on the right side in the NFL. In terms of technique, Cherilus uses his hands well and does not take very many false steps. The biggest issue Cherilus has is he plays with poor leverage and does not bend his knees well. That leads him to play too high and in doing so, can negate his strength and power. Cherilus may not be the top 3 prospect he appeared to be at the beginning of his senior season, but he has too many physical skills to fall down the list too far. He is a borderline first round pick, and likely will not fall out of the top 10 or 15 picks in the second round.

7.) Carl Nicks 6-5 341 Nebraska
Carl Nicks is one of the biggest players in the draft at any position. Unlike Cherilus, Nicks uses his body effectively and plays with solid leverage. Cherilus gets away with it because he uses better technique than Nicks. The former Husker has a tendency to play under the level of his physical attributes because he does not use his hands as effectively as he could. Nicks showed well at the combine and appeared more athletic in drills than he did at Nebraska. If Nicks has dedicated himself to improving his lateral quickness and his overall technique, his ceiling as a RT is extremely high. He already shows excellent punch in the run game just using his raw power and upper-body strength. If coached properly, Nicks could turn out to be a solid player at right tackle in the NFL. While he is certainly not at the level of Clady or Long, Nicks will likely go in second round.

8.) Anthony Collins 6-5 317 Kansas
Another right tackle prospect with outstanding physical tools, this Kansas All-American has ridden his team's breakout success and turned it into first day draft potential. Collins, much like Kansas, does not have a ton of experience in the spotlight. Collins could have benefited from another year at Kansas improving his technique and playing against most top-level competition in the Big-12. In his two years starting however he has played both tackle spots and could play either in the NFL, although he probably best suited to play right tackle on Sundays. He uses his long arms to ride defenders out of areas. He does not possess great technique and is inconsistent getting proper anchor in his sets. When he does play with balance, Collins is a wall and effectively uses his massive frame to shield and even wipe out defenders. His poor technique means poor footwork and he does not have the quickness to stay with speed rushers, or mirror double-moves. At this point, his physical attributes give up enough upside to fit into the late second round, but could fall to the third.

9.) Duane Brown 6-4 315 Virginia Tech
Here is where this position gets somewhat convoluted. The talent level drops off and as a result, a teams style or preferences become much more important when scouting players. Brown is a former tight end, who made the switch to tackle in 2005. Brown still possesses a ton of quickness and agility and uses his athletic ability effectively, particularly in pass protection. His lateral quickness and long arms allow him to wall off the corner and speed rushers won't bother him. He can slide with speed rushers, but certainly will have to get stronger to deal with bull rushers. In terms of weaknesses, Brown's game has a long way to go as a run blocker. He still hasn't learned how to take effective angles to wall off defenders, or use solid technique when asked to do different things like cut. His knowledge of the position must improve as he struggles with stunts, protection slides, and blitz pick up. Teams looking employing zone blocking systems will love this kid's upside, while power running teams may view him as a project in a more pejorative sense. He is somewhat of a project, but has the kind of upside to land him in the third round.

10.) Oniel Cousins 6-4 308 U.T.E.P.
A player like Cousins could be a 3rd round tackle prospect on some boards, while a 5th round guard prospect on others. Cousins is a raw prospect, who made the switch from defensive tackle in 2005 at UTEP and just where he'll play in the NFL is unclear. His technique is not outstanding and he is still learning how to use his body effectively. However, Cousins is a stellar athlete with excellent quickness and agility. He can get to the second level and does a good job of hitting moving targets in space. Cousins' bulk could be improved, hopefully without losing too much from his quickness. Right now, he uses his feet effectively to mirror pass-rushers, a place his experience on the defensive line will certainly help. He must get stronger to deal with bull rushers on the outside, and that lack of strength probably prevents him from moving inside to guard on the next level as he won't be able to handle the types of enormous nose tackles he could potentially face. One of the better athletes along the offensive line, Cousins could go in the third or fourth round.

NFL Draft Preview: Inside Linebackers

2008-03-03T12:47:00.000-08:00

Middle linebackers are considerably easier to rank than outside linebackers because responsibilities are relatively homogeneous across teams. Unlike the weak and strong side, where different systems require very different skill sets, the middle linebacker has a certain different standard. The leader in the middle must make sure players are aligned correctly, read plays quickly, and play more physically than most outside 'backers. Patrick Willis was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last year after a remarkable rookie season. Willis was a top 10 prospect coming out and blew scouts away with his athletic ability. The 2008 draft class lacks that elite prospect at linebacker, either middle or outside. However, a number of productive and talented players make this class deep in the middle rounds. Much like Keith Rivers, the only way Dan Connor falls from the top spot between now and April is injury, or a horrific showing at Penn State's Pro Day.

1.) Dan Connor 6-3 233 Penn State
The NFL Combine was somewhat anticlimactic for linebackers as neither Keith Rivers nor Dan Connor took part. As of now, Connor is still the top rated inside linebacker in the class and unless he runs a higher than expected 40 at the Penn State Pro Day, he should stay that way. A strong showing in Happy Valley could mean Connor would move up from the bottom of the first round to the middle. Teams like Denver were drooling over Connor at the Senior Bowl and Big Ten fans know why. Just the latest in the line of great linebackers from "Linebacker U" and like those before him, he plays with great instinct and awareness in the run game. He reads his keys extremely quickly and can move laterally in a hurry to make it to the ball carrier. Connor breaks down in space effectively and is an extremely reliable tackler. His hips are somewhat stiff and his ability to change directions, turn and run, with tight ends or backs could be a concern at the next level. He could stand to put on some weight, and he must make sure he does not lose any athleticism from his already less than stellar credentials. Connor is in a position to really help himself in a few weeks in front of the scouts. A strong performance should land him somewhere between 10-25 in the first round.

2.) Jerod Mayo 6-1 242 Tennessee
Mayo is one of the fastest rising prospects in the draft since declaring early for the NFL Draft. His aggressive play and hard hitting mentality lead to great production in the SEC against the best teams in the nation. Mayo can be explosive at times, stoning full backs in the hole as well as laying out receivers coming across the middle. While not overly effective changing directions, he doe show fluid hips and blew scouts away with a 4.54 40 at the Combine. His biggest attributes also have been his weakness. He can be over-aggressive at times, leading him to bite on play-action fakes as well as double moves in coverage. He is a player with top-level motor and is relentless in pursuit. Mayo put on nearly 15 pounds for the NFL Combine and lost nothing from his speed. While he still does not have the lower body strength to be a prototypical run-stuffing middle linebacker, Mayo is athletic and explosive. With big bodies in front of him, Mayo could be a terror and should go in the mid to late second round.

3.) Curtis Lofton 6-0 246 Oklahoma The position seems a little cloudy at this juncture. While Connor seems to be the unanimous #1 player at the position, 2-10 can all be argued and teams will no doubt have discrepancies among top prospects. Curtis Lofton could be the top prospect behind Connor, but the two have different skill sets and thus teams will place value differently depending on the defensive system. Unlike Mayo, Lofton lacks top-end speed to turn and run with tight ends and backs. Lofton's game is predicated on awareness and reads. Lofton is an expert at diagnosing and then attacking. Once he gets to the ball carrier, this guy will unload. He can bring serious wood and does so with pleasure. He is the best run-stuffing linebacker in the top 3 of either linebacker position. On the other hand, his hips are somewhat stiff in coverage and his 4.78 shows his lack of top end speed in man coverage. Lofton's overall skill set seem perfect for the middle linebacker position, while players like Mayo and Tavares Gooden could play outside. Those skills should land him in the second round.

4.) Phillip Wheeler 6-2 248 Georgia Tech In terms of physical skills, Wheeler has everything you could ask for from a middle linebacker. He has a strong, thick body, and good speed. He flashes the ability to run through blockers on the way to the ball carrier, as well as engage and shed blocks. He plays aggressively and with energy, however he relies too heavily on his quickness and often over-pursues. He lacks fluidity in his hips to turn and run with backs and tight ends, as well as the physicality to be disruptive. He was a leader at Georgia Tech, but with so many physical tools, he either lacks the desire or the ability to be more effective in coverage. He does not have the strength to be a run-stuffer or the ball skills to be a cover backer. May not be a true middle linebacker in the NFL and that lack of definition could be a negative in the eyes of some talent evaluators. Wheeler has solid instincts, good speed, and is an effective tackler. A team late in round 2 or early in round 3 will take a chance on a guy with this kind of athletic ability and potential.

5.) Tavares Gooden 6-1 234 Miami (Fla.)
Tavares Gooden has experience at all three linebacker positions and with his athleticism, he could play any of them in the NFL. In terms of athletic ability, he has incredible fluidity and range of movement, both attacking in the run game, and dropping in the passing game. He uses his great speed (4.65 40) to close on ball carriers, and explodes on impact. While he does not possess outstanding instincts or body awareness, he seems to find his way to the ball, whether he reads his keys effectively or not. For that reason, he may fit better on the outside in the NFL. Furthermore, he is undersized to play the middle, but this guy is a dedicated, hard-working player who will commit to getting stronger and bigger. If he can do that, and improve his anchor, his skills in coverage will mean he can be an every-down player on Sundays. Has a chance to follow in the footsteps of former Hurricane great LB's like Ray Lewis and Jonathan Vilma, and should go somewhere late second early third round in April.

6.) Jonathan Goff 6-2 245 Vanderbilt
Jonathan Goff has been a top 5 inside linebacker all season long. Goff's senior season was somewhat disappointing considering the high expectations, and he could have been in the top tier group with a stellar senior campaign. That being said, Goff could be a steal for whatever team takes him in the Draft. An extremely instinctive player, Goff combines size and speed when getting to the ball carrier. He uses good leverage and technique fighting off blockers and keeping them off of him as he makes his way to the ball carrier. However, the bigger blockers in the NFL might pose him problems until he improves his lower body strength. Goff is one of the few inside linebackers who can really get after the QB and shows good timing and burst across the line. Had some trouble staying with backs out of the backfield at Vandy, but his 4.63 40 time implies he has improved his quickness and at his size that shows his dedication to getting better. Goff should go in the third round, but may slip to the fourth.

7.) Beau Bell 6-1 244 UNLV
After Goff, many of the remaining player rankings will very greatly across teams. Beau Bell has been ranked all over draft boards and his good timing at the combine could have moved him up on many boards. However, he could be somewhat of a "workout warrior." Much like Ali Highsmith plays considerably faster than he timed, Bell plays slower than he times. He changes direction effectively, but his hips are not very fluid in coverage. He has limited range defending the pass and should not be asked to turn and run with tight ends. Could play over the tight end in the NFL and may be better suited there. He may also fit well in a 3-4 scheme because he uses angles effectively and can get to the quarterback with considerable force. Bell has good bulk, but must get stronger to play inside. He has one of the more developed pass rush games of any linebacker in the '08 class which would only make him more valuable to a 3-4 system. He has the awareness to cover in space and can really stick across the middle. He could be one of those "boom or busts" prospects, pardon the phrase. Sometimes showed considerable interest in Bell at the Senior Bowl and he could go in the second or third round. But he belongs in the fourth.

8.) Ben Moffitt 6-1 234 South Florida
One scout describes Ben Moffitt as, "the type of guy you hate to doubt." That essentially sums up the player he was at South Florida. Undersized and not athletically blessed, Moffitt was highly productive and lead a ferocious Bull defense. He does not great physical speed, but reads his keys quickly and reacts immediately. That helps make up for his lack of burst. He also hides his lack of speed by taking great angles to the ball. Moffitt can be engulfed by even undersized blockers and does not disengage well. When he does get a clean shot, he almost always takes it and makes the play. In terms of upside, Moffitt is limited because he is athletic as he'll ever be, and that simply isn't good enough. But don't tell him that. Moffit had almost 350 career tackles and in 2007 had 4 games in which he tallied at least 10 stops. He is the kind of guy GM's like to call "just a football player." All of the cliché phrases aside, Moffitt can play and is certainly a depending back-up and quality special teams player. He should go in the middle rounds, probably the fourth.

9.) Vince Hall 5-11 232 Virginia Tech
Unlike many of the undersized linebackers on this list, Hall plays considerably bigger than his body indicates. Hall has the strength to take on lead blockers in the hole and even the explosion to run them over and make the play. Using his instincts, he can get to the ball carrier quickly despite limited range. By reading his keys and diagnosing quickly, his lack of speed is negated to some degree. However, his lack of speed and quickness is certainly is strongest weakness. Hall struggles opening his hips and getting back in coverage. In fact, some scouts questions whether or not Hall can be an every down player. To make matters worse, Hall does not have great ball skills in coverage. Hall's ability to cut and change direction additionally hinders his dexterity in coverage. Hall has some potential as a run stuffing middle linebacker and takes good angles to the ball. However, his lack of versatility in coverage detracts from his value. Hall will probably fall to the 5th round and his experience playing "Beamer Ball" at Tech will give him enough special teams value to fall much further.

10.) Spencer Larsen 6-2 238 Arizona
Larsen, much like Hall, can really attack the line of scrimmage, but struggles in coverage. Larsen was a stand-out at the East West Shrine Game showing his instincts and aggressiveness. However, he also showed his inability to cover in space and looked lost at times. His 4.9 40 at the NFL Combine emphasizes his lack of top-end speed. Larsen is a junior and may have benefited from another year at Arizona, but how much would his stock have risen? Another year isn't going to make him faster. he is athletic now as he ever will be and that gives him limited upside. To be fair, he was productive surrounded with limited talent in one of the best conference in college football. He makes plays all over the field and certainly has a chance to be a special teams demon in his first year. Larsen may never be a starter on Sundays but will be a quality back up and special teams player. Larsen's lack of athletic ability and range means he will fall into the bottom of the 5th round and maybe even into the 6th.

NFL Draft Preview: Outside Linebackers

2008-03-02T20:15:00.000-08:00

Ranking outside linebackers has become increasingly tricky since the advent of the 3-4 defense. The rush linebackers preferred in the 3-4 system vary drastically from the 4-3 linebackers. Making matters worse, ranking 4-3 outside linebackers was hard enough to begin with because the strong and weakside linebackers have different responsibilities requiring different skill sets. For instance, Shawn Crable played linebacker at Michigan, but has some experience as a rush end. At the NFL Combine, he ran with the defensive lineman (turned in the second best time) and likely projects as a rush linebacker in the 3-4. However, he almost certainly will not play end in the NFL and has therefore been placed here. Players like Cliff Avril and Quentin Groves played with their hands on the ground in college and could play true defensive end or rush linebacker in the NFL. For that reason, they are ranked as defense ends. It is worth nothing that Crable's lack of flexibility to play linebacker in both systems, or defense end in either hurts his stock overall.

1. Keith Rivers 6-3 241 USC
Keith Rivers has been the consensus top outside linebacker all season long. While not overly physical, Rivers has the vision to get to the ball carrier. Rivers was an elite recruit coming out of high school (do any other players go to USC?) and hasn't disappointed in the least. He has tremendous athletic ability and range, even though his timed speed may not be great. Rivers has a knack for making big hits and jarring the ball lose. However, big hits do not necessarily mean strength. Rivers has some issues shedding blocks at times due to a weak anchor. His pass rush moves are limited and he may be enveloped by the massive NFL offensive lineman. The former USC standout was making plays all over the field at the Senior Bowl and solidified himself as the top linebacker either inside outside in this year's draft class. He did not run at the combine, but we will get a chance to see him at the USC Pro Day. Anything under 4.7 will be satisfactory and if he can get run in the low 4.6's he could be a top 15 pick.

2.Erin Henderson 6-3 244 Maryland
This spot had been occupied most of the year by Ali Highsmith from LSU. Both Henderson and Highsmith were somewhat disappointing in their Combine workouts. However, Henderson moves up because his game is not predicated on speed and burst. Henderson's skills are his lateral quickness and his ability to make plays in space because of his ability to break down and take down ball carriers with impeccable consistency. He can also seriously bring the wood by using his natural strength and excellent timing on receivers and tight ends coming into his area. While Henderson's coverage skills can be improved, he could line up in the slot against tight ends and even slot receivers and be adequate in coverage. He makes up for his lack of top end speed with his long, lean frame which allows him to disrupt receivers routes and concentration. He also does an effective job of using his body to get into passing lanes. Henderson takes good angles in pursuit, particularly to the quarterback, but he has a penchant for running around blockers and as such must develop additional moves to shed blockers and maintain position. In a weak linebacker class, Henderson will likely come off the board in the mid-second round. If the Bengals don't transition to the 3-4, Henderson could really help a weak linebacking core and 46th is essentially right where he belongs.

3.Ali Highsmith 6-0 230 LSU
After Highsmith's lackluster work outs, it would be fair to say his stock has slipped. It would be unfair to say it was necessarily warranted. Anyone who watched Highsmith play at LSU saw a player who was lightening on that fantastic defense. His vicious hit on OSU QB Todd Boeckman in the BCS Championship game was essentially the end for the Buckeyes and capped a fantastic season for that defense. Highsmith's impact for arguably the best defense in the nation cannot be quantified in his 40 yard dash time. Obviously, a 5.02 40 time is not what scouts were looking for, but the phrase "Plays faster on film" fits perfectly. Highsmith was not a guy you were going to line up in the slot and run with receivers, but his game did seem to rely heavily on his quickness. He does have tremendous quickness, as well as fluidity in his hips. His lack of bulk certainly means he will need some big boys up front to protect him, something he did have in college. Highsmith actually played all three linebacker spots at some point in his career at LSU, but will be a weakside linebacker in the NFL, ideally in a cover-2 scheme. He will likely go mid to late second round maybe even to a team like Tampa.

4.Xavier Adibi 6-2 232 Virginia Tech
The parade of weakside linebackers continues. This is about where Adibi has been ranked all season long for outside linebackers. Right when he'd have a couple of mediocre games, he'd come up with momentum changing plays in key games, like in the ACC Championship Game against Boston College (And Top 5 Pick Matt Ryan). Adibi is another player who would likely excel in a Cover-2 scheme where he is not necessarily asked to take on a ton of blockers. At barely over 230 pounds, he does not have the kind of strength needed to take on and shed blockers, nor does he have great hands when fighting off potential blocks. However, he uses his quickness and athleticism to make plays. He may be the most natural cover linebacker in the draft and has good hands and ball skills. He plays with tremendous passion, but has been known to lose his cool, leading to flags. Another guy who did not run as well as expected(But still solid), in the 4.7 range, Adibi must hope scouts will see the leadership and production on an excellent defense at Virginia Tech more than that single workout. Could go anywhere from the middle of the second round to the middle of the third, depending on who falls.

5.Bruce Davis 6-2 252 UCLA
Our first strongside linebacker makes an appearance on the list, and he's not even a true strongside linebacker. In the NFL, more and more teams are taking undersized college defensive ends and turning them into SAM linebackers. Bruce Davis fits that mold and worked at linebacker at the Senior Bowl. He could play SAM or rush linebacker in the 3-4 and that versatility is part of why he stands ahead of Shawn Crable. He showed better than expected dexterity in coverage as well as good instincts in play recognition, which has lead to his rise on draft boards. As a pass-rusher, no player on the list has this kind of upside. Davis was dominant off the edge at UCLA and saw top-tier talent in the Pac-10. He uses his hands effectively to shed blocks and get to the ball carrier. His ability to break down in the open field and make tackles highlights his versatility. If asked, he has shown the ability to do just about anything defensively, although his M.O. is getting the quarterback. Much like Adibi, teams will have him rated differently based on their defensive system and the position they see him playing. He will fall anywhere from the second to late third, even early fourth round.

6.Geno Hayes 6-1 226 Florida State
Florida State used to turn out players to the NFL as often as any team in the country. Unfortunately for Seminole fans, they just have not had the talent it used to get in the 1990's. Geno Hayes is one of the few standouts for Seminoles, and has been starting since his freshman year. Hayes brings fantastic cover skills showing good instincts in space. Showed his speed and quickness with a 4.65 40 at the combine and he should be able to run with tight ends and backs out of the backfield in coverage. Again, his base could use strengthening and will need bigs in front of him to help shield pulling guards and lead backs. He also does not use great technique shedding blocks or getting to the quarterback. His experience and instincts will make him an impact special teams player right away. A team in the second round may consider reaching if they need a linebacker, particularly with the draft so deep at other positions. The third or fourth round seems more likely.

7.Shawn Crable 6-5 245 Michigan
Shawn Crable's off-season has been rather tumultuous. He showed up to the off-season circuit absolutely ripped and impressed teams with his physical skills. However, his stiff hips and mediocre coverage skills lead to placemet with the defensive linemen at the NFL Combine. Crable then turned in an impressive workout running a 4.64 40, on par with guys 20 and 30 pounds lighter. Physically, Crable is everything you'd ask for in a 3-4 linebacker. In terms of a 3-4, he is probably one of the top 3 rush linebacker prospects. However, as a SAM linebacker he does not quite measure up. He is slow to read and react reading his keys. However, when he does make the right reads, he has the tools to be dominant, wrecking havoc in opposing backfields. Both his work ethic and his intelligence have been questioned. While Crable was a "t'weener" at Michigan, he is certainly a 3-4 linebacker in the pro's. His pass rush moves are limited and must improve to rush the passer effectively. With a premium on pressuring the quarterback, Crable could go in the late second round, but the third round is probably more realistic.

8.Wesley Woodyard Jr. 6-0 237 Kentucky
Wesley Woodyard is a fast-rising prospect and one of my favorite players in this year's draft. He reminds me a little bit of Green Bay Packer LB Nick Barnett. Fast, athletic, but undersized, Woodyard flies around the football field. He put on weight for the combine, but still turned in the second best 40 time of the linebackers at 4.51 and had the fastest 60 yard shuttle time among linebackers. Much like Barnett, he was was extremely productive in a top-tier conference and played his best in big games. He has excellent feet and quickness which give him superior burst in and out of cuts as well as extra pop when tackling. He has played every linebacker position as well as some safety(again like Barnett) although he'll need to get stronger to play linebacker in the NFL. Size remains his only knock, and his frame should allow him to get bigger and stronger. He can play WILL in any 4-3 scheme, although a cover 2 would be ideal. Derrick Brooks is only 6-0 235 and he's been one of the best WILL linebackers in the league for the last 10 years. A team in the third or fourth round could get a steal with Woodyard.

9. Jordan Dizon 6-0 229 Colorado
From here on things get a little murky because the talent pool drops off significantly. Dizon is a four year starter at Colorado who plays with a constant motor and the kind of toughness coaches covet in a linebacker. However, at barely 230 pounds, Dizon does not have the bulk or the strength to play linebacker on Sundays, nor does he have anywhere near the ball skills or hips to play safety. As it is, his coverage skills for a linebacker are marginal. He makes up for his physical deficiencies with physicality. Despite not being overly strong, Dizon will run through players on the way to the ball carrier and plays with a mean streak. However, he can be slow to diagnose plays and does not read his keys particularly well. A leader with great intangibles and experience, he may never be a starter at any position in the NFL. However, every team needs "glue guys" who keep the team together and do the little things to help a team win. If you asked this kid to go hold for a field goal, he would do it with pride. Somewhere in the 4th or 5th round, a team looking to add depth at linebacker or safety as well as pick up some additional special team help should find what they are looking for with Dizon.

10.Gary Guyton 6-1 245 Georgia Tech
Gary Guyton was overshadowed by Phillip Wheeler at Georgia Tech and did not get attention until he ran a ridiculous 4.47 40 and put in a 36.5 inch vertical jump at the combine. Guyton's athletic potential does not always translate onto the football field as he can be slow in his back pedal in coverage. However, Guyton plays with great range and side to side speed, particularly in the run game. His athletic ability offers versatility and he could play either linebacker spot in the pro's. Tenth may seem too high for Guyton, but at this point the 10th best linebacker is probably a 4th round pick and isn't going to challenge for a starting job on most teams. That means special team duty, which happens to be Guyton's forte (Just look at the youtube video of his block against VTech). With some coaching Guyton's tremendous athletic potential could be realized. Even if he only serves as a backup and a special team regular, you have not wasted a mid-round pick. That means Guyton will likely come off the board in the 4th or 5th round.

NFL Draft Preview: Tight End

2008-02-24T17:34:00.000-08:00

Three days are done at the combine and the skill positions on offense have taken their turn. Already some shifting has taken place as a result of combine work, both upward and downward. The tight end class in 2008 lacks a top 10 prospect like a Kellen Winslow Jr., but Fred Davis and Dustin Keller both have the potential to be better than Greg Olsen, the first tight end taken in 2007. The group features several highly productive collegiate players and several projects, whose college numbers may not be indicative over their overall talent. Here is a look at the top players at the tight end position for 2008.

1a.) Fred Davis USC 6-4 248
Davis caught a team high 62 passes in 13 ball games in his senior season for USC and is one of the few premier talents at the tight end position in this year's draft. While he struggled early at the combine with drops, Fred Davis has the ball skills of a wide receiver and has the athleticism to make difficult catches in traffic. His route running has improved significantly and he is certainly capable of running routes from the slot, the backfield, or off the line. Davis did not run at the combine but put up 24 reps of 225, good enough for third among tight ends. There are some questions about his ability to block at the point of attack, so perhaps the strong bench press performance eases the minds of scouts in that regard. Davis does use good technique in the run game and with added strength, his blocking should be solid. Davis was the John Mackey award winner for best tight end in the nation and watching him demolish the Illinois defense in the Rose Bowl, it was easy to see why. A dominant performance from Purdue's Dustin Keller at the combine means Davis will need a strong Pro Day to solidify himself as the top tight end in the draft. With a 40 in the sub 4.7's will likely mean a first round grade. He is one of my favorite players at any position in this year's draft. A team like Seattle could really utilize his skill set in that offense, and could take him in the first round.

1b. Dustin Keller Purdue 6-3 245
Dustin Keller's put on a clinic at the combine, testing out as the best athlete in the tight end class, particularly given that Fred Davis did not run. Keller was the fastest tight end in Indy running a blistering (for tight ends) 4.53 40 yard dash. In addition,the Purdue product had the highest vertical jump (38 inches) and put up the second most reps of 225 on the bench (26). And don't be fooled into thinking this converted wide receiver is simply a work out warrior. In 8 games last season Keller caught 5 or more passes, including a 7 catch 150 yard 1 TD performance in the Motor City Bowl against Central Michigan. While Keller may not play with ideal leverage in the run game, or have great technique blocking overall, with his strength and athleticism these things can be cultivated. He has a knack for finding holes in zones and settling in, but he will drop balls occasionally. Fred Davis may be the most polished and NFL-ready tight end in the Draft, but Keller has the most upside. In the right system, Keller could be a force on Sundays. So, until Fred Davis runs at USC's Pro Day, the two will be 1a and 1b.

3.) John Carlson Notre Dame 6-6 256
This former basketball star certainly passes the eye test, but did not pass many other tests at the combine. Many of the concerns scouts had about Carlson coming in were confirmed. Carlson is neither quick nor fast, running 4.9 40's, but he also not what you would consider a blocking tight end. He plays with poor leverage at times, but takes good angles and has adequate technique as a blocker. His 20 reps on the bench press is average at best and wasn't even in the top 10. Two straight seasons with 40 or more receptions at Notre Dame proves his reliability, and his hands are solid. At the combine, he fought the ball at times, and his fluidity in that regard continues to be a concern. Carlson benefited from Notre Dame's pro style offense, utilizing his smarts and craftiness to get open in zones and seams. He adjusts well to the flight path of poorly thrown balls (something he had to deal with quite a bit as a senior). Zach Miller ran a disappointing 40 at the combine last year and was picked in the second round. Carlson does not have the kind of upside as Davis and Keller and probably lost his first round grade at the combine. The second, even the third round is probably where Carlson will fall. He can certainly help a team right away, even if it is just special teams and multiple tight end sets.

4.) Martellus Bennett Texas A&M 6-7 248
An All-American tight end and former basketball player, Martellus Bennett's value will vary on draft boards for a number of reasons. The former Aggie is an intriguing prospect because of his ability to play both run and pass. Bennett is probably the most complete tight end in terms of combining blocking and receiving. He will maul people in the run game and pass protection and has the bulk to take on rush linebackers and even defensive ends. He fights to the whistle with or without the ball and gets more than 5 knockdown blocks per game. In addition, Bennett lacks great speed overall, but did run a sub 4.7 40 and with his height and long arms can make tough catches in the seam and over the middle. Some attitude issues may take away from his value some, but not enough for too many teams to shy away from a talent like his. Teams who love to run the football will really covet this kid, but those with vertical passing attacks will likely have him lower on their boards. Either way, he has serious talent and a team in the second round like Buffalo or Atlanta would provide great fits for Bennett's talent. He is at worst an early third round pick and I would not be surprised if he goes ahead of Carlson as these ratings could just as easily be flipped(much like Davis and Keller).

5.) Jermichael Finley Texas 6-5 236
This begins the drop off in tight end talent in this year's class. Jermichael Finley actually declared after a redshirt sophomore year in which he caught 45 passes for for 578 yards and 2 touchdowns. Finley flashed his natural receiving skills, but could have benefited from at least one more year of school at Texas. He has an athletic body and has room to put on weight. Scouts expected him to run faster than he did at 4.82, but that was good enough 8th among tight ends. He is one of the few elusive tight ends in this year's draft, certainly more than Bennett or Carlson and can generate yards after the catch. His blocking has improved and should continue to do so. Only 16 career starts is certainly a concern. In addition Finley has never played in a pro-style offense. With such little playing experience, his adjustment to a Pro Game could be slow. In theory, his best football is ahead of him and he is risk/reward prospect. He could go anywhere from the second to fourth round.

6.) Martin Rucker Missouri 6-5 248
Martin Rucker is the most productive collegiate at the position by far. When you are in the record books next to Kellen B. Winslow, you have some serious talent. Rucker did not time well at the combine, nor did he show much dexterity at the Senior Bowl, but the numbers speak for themselves. Rucker had 80 catches last season; only 3 tight ends in the NFL had 80 or more catches and they get 16 games. He is not particularly strong, nor does he have much experience as an in-line blocker, but he takes solid angles and gets to the second level quickly. He is a fluid route runner on film, regardless of his inconsistent Senior Bowl, and should be able to run all the routes in the pros. He lacks ideal speed to push safeties deep, but he will move the chains in a consistent way and will be a reliable third down and redzone target. Concerns about his time in the spread inflating his statistics certainly has merit, but Missouri has had a number of different weapons over his time and Rucker has always produced. He is a little of a "what you see is what you get" product with less upside than the guys above him. However, Rucker is an extremely solid football player and can help a team looking to add depth and receiving ability. Should go in the third or fourth round, but may slip given the poor showing at the combine and Senior Bowl.

7.) Brad Cottam Tennesse 6-8 271
Brad Cottom may be one of the biggest risk/reward prospects at any position in this year's draft, and has to talent to go as high as the second round. At the combine Cottom's measureables make him look like a top-tier prospect ( 4.63 40, 24 reps on the bench, and 33 inch vertical jump). Cottam is someone the antithesis of Rucker. In his 3 year career at Tennessee, Cottam has just 21 receptions, 3 for touchdowns. His hands are average and he is not going to make anyone miss. His speed suggests he can stretch the middle of the field, but isn't very physical and may not have what it takes to take the physical beating over the middle. Injuries have hampered him throughout his career and after running one of the best times at the position in the 40, Cottam came up lame. His strength and athleticism can be harnessed and with the right coaching staff and system he could be an extremely productive receiver, particularly in the red zone. The middle rounds seem about right to take a risk on this kind of player, somewhere in the third or fourth round area.

8.) Kellen Davis Michigan State 6-6 259
If there is one player you wouldn't want to piss off in a bar, this is the guy. Davis sports chiseled and imposing frame and has tremendous athletic potential. Unfortunately for him (and for Spartan fans), his work ethic never met his potential. Plenty of teams were interesting in talking to Davis at the Senior Bowl and after a solid performance at the combine it isn't difficult to see why. Davis ran a 4.6 40, good enough for fourth among tight ends and amazing for someone with his size. He has the frame to add even more strength (he repped 225 22 times) and some of the fundamentals can be fine-tuned. He played some defensive end in East Lansing and teams might be tempted to try him as a rush linebacker, although his ball skills probably make it too hard to put him on defense. Either way, he has a future as a special teams impact player right away if he can commit to it. He is certainly a project, but a team willing to wait could get a steal in the late fourth or fifth round.

Other tight ends expecting to hear their names called in April: Craig Stephens Cal, Jacob Tamme Kentucky, Darrell Strong Pitt, Joe Jon Finley Oklahoma, Joey Haynos Maryland, Gary Barnidge Louisville

NFL Off-Season Preview 2008: AFC North

2008-02-16T18:47:00.000-08:00

2007 was a year for underachieving in the AFC North. Pittsburgh looked like a serious contender before the season began and lost in the first round at home to Jacksonville. Cincinnati played absolutely horrible defense and the offense struggled more than many expected. But perhaps the biggest disappointment was the Ravens. Baltimore fell from 13-3 to 5-11 and probably played even worse than their 5-11 record would indicate. If you're a Cleveland fan, you couldn't care less. The perennial cellar-dwelling Browns broke out of their funk with a 10-6 record, narrowly missing the playoffs. If the Ravens pull off something major like landing Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, the North could be stacked. As it is, 2008 will be highly competitive and may not be decided until week 17.

Baltimore Ravens 5-11
Needs: QB,CB,WR,LB,OL
Offense: With off-season coaching changes inevitable each year, Baltimore was probably the most attractive job in 2008. An aging but talented defensive nucleus, coupled with inconsistent but talented offense, implies the Ravens can turn their ship around next season. 5-11 coming off 13-3 is a good way to get a head coach fired. Brian Billick learned that the hard way, but Billick had long worn out his welcome as many expected him to get the ax after 2005. John Harbough will replace Billick, making the short trip from Philly. Cam Cameron will run the offense lead by Troy Smith, Kyle Boller, or potentially someone for the '08 draft class. Musa Smith could leave but the Ravens already have Mike Anderson. The offensive line is a question with Jonathan Ogden's status in doubt. The Ravens staff scouting OT's heavily at the senior bowl, the 2nd and third rounds could certainly be the place they address that need.

Defensive: Terrell Suggs represents the only major potential free agent loss and signing him ought to be a top priority. With Harbough's background in defensive backfields, the aging secondary will likely take a new form in 2008 ( DRC, and number of other CB's are very much on the radar). No matter who is back there, Rex Ryan will get the most of that defense, the strength of this Ravens team. Baltimore lacks balance in terms of experience on defense and certainly needs to add young talent to build for the future as well as add insurance in case of injury this season. If they can settle on a quarterback early, this will be a much improved team in 2008.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #8 Matt Ryan QB Boston College

Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
Needs: LB,DL,G,S,TE
Offense: Ocho Cinco must come back for 2008, and Marvin Lewis has said the disenchanted diva isn't going anywhere. Even with WR Chad Johnson back, the offense will have to do a better job protecting QB Carson Palmer and opening lanes for RB Rudi Johnson as the line did NOT play well this past season. Without a consistent running game, Palmer was erratic and often missed the kind of throws he routinely makes. A young tight end who could help give the Bengals another blocker in the run game as well as a receiver down the middle would help tremendously. Offensive line depth and tight end are really the only weaknesses on offense. While guard is not particularly deep position in this year's draft, there are a number of tackles who would add depth. Also, the tight end class is athletic and capable of making an impact right away, especially with Palmer at the helm.

Defense:The kind of underachieving going on in Cinci would get most coaches fired. However, the Bengals have been so terrible for so long that management has been giving Marvin Lewis the benefit of the doubt since Lewis put this team back in the playoffs. The reality is, Lewis' defense (his supposed specialty) has been awful. Probably their best defensive player, Justin Smith, was franchised, and will likely take his services elsewhere. They could also lose starting linebacker Landon Johnson from a defense that struggled to get 11 guys on the field in '07. Now, the defense could switch to a 3-4 when they don't have any linebackers to the begin with. Linebacker and defensive line certainly seem like top priorities then for a team whose offense has never really struggled to score points. Expect a front 7 defensive player who can help this defense right away. Otherwise, the #1 safety in the draft Kenny Phillips might remind Lewis of one of his former players, Miami S Ed Reed, and could certainly garner consideration. Another 7-9 season for Marvin Lewis and he may not get this much leniency.

Projected 1st Round Pick: Kenny Phillips S Miami (Fla.)

Cleveland Browns 10-6
Needs: CB,WR,RT,LB,S
Offense: Considering how long the Cleveland Browns have been mired in mediocrity, it would be easy simply be happy with 10-6. However, if anyone knows how hard it is to win in the NFL it is the Cleveland Browns. That is why they have made contract offers to both QB Derek Anderson and RB Jamal Lewis, hoping to keep their chore from last season intact. The QB situation is a murky one with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings, but all signs point to Anderson being the starter in '08. In order for 2008 to result in a playoff birth the Browns must get a wide receiver to help ease the burden on rising stars WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. The Browns were scouting receivers heavily at the Senior Bowl, and they may even use their 2nd round pick to grab one. Regardless of whether or not Jamal Lewis comes back, the Browns also would like to add a running back in the draft.

Defense: the Browns would love to add depth in their secondary. The defense played considerably better this past season and with Romeo Crennel staying on as coach, they should be even better in 2008. Rush OLB Willie McGinest cannot play forever, and the Browns were very interested in linebackers at the Senior Bowl. In Crennel's 3-4, a team can never have too many linebackers and we may see multiple linebackers taken to bolster that group. Also, the Brown defensive lineman are nothing special. A young defense end who can pressure would probably help prolong McGinest's career. If they stay healthy, the Browns could be a very dangerous team next season.

Projected 2nd Round Pick: Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Needs: OL,S,WR,OLB,DE
Offense: The smash-mouth Pittsburgh Steelers of old were not the Steelers we saw in 2007. Willie Parker pounded the football, but the Steelers offensive line struggled in pass protected and often failed to get the "tough" yards when they needed them. Now, Pittsburgh faces losing their Pro Bowl G Alan Faneca to free agency. The guard class is weak in the draft, but there are some players in free agency. If the Steelers do go after a free agent guard, expect it to be one of the low-cost variety. Pittsburgh has tremendous talent at the skill positions, but Hines Ward is getting old and Cedric Wilson is a third receiver at best. Some help outside will give Big Ben another option and improve an already explosive offense.

Defense: The 2007 Steelers certainly did not remind anyone of the days of Mean Joe Green or Jack Lambert. Pittsburgh struggled with fundamentals, missing tackles and blowing coverage. S Anthony Smith probably lost his job after his failed guarantee, but he was probably better suited for a special teams/backup role anyway. Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley were picked in the first two rounds last year to give the Steelers pressure package more punch, but the Steelers D just dwindled down the stretch. Pittsburgh could also use depth at corner. For the first time in a while, the Steelers D must be upgraded to compete in the AFC North much less the rest of the AFC.

Projected 1st Round Pick: Jeffrey Otah OT Pittsburgh

NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC South

2008-02-15T13:02:00.000-08:00

While the NFC South got only one team into the playoffs (a team that barely finished .500), the NFC South was actually highly competitive within the division. Both the Saints and the Panthers finished 7-9, while the Falcons played much better late in the year. Since 2003 every member of the division has finished 1st at least once and Tampa is the only team to have done it twice in that span. However, since 2002 when NFL realigned and created the NFC South as its currently constituted, the division has had a Super Bowl winner, Super Bowl Loser, and two losses in the NFC Championship game. The South is both highly competitive and highly volatile. Any team, perhaps with the exception of Atlanta, could win in 2008 and that could mean the teams could stand pat knowing they have a shot, or make them aggressive knowing they are just a few pieces away. Just like the division over the past 5 years, it is hard to predict.

Atlanta Falcons 4-12
Needs: QB,OL,DT,LB,WR,S
Offense: Where don't the Atlanta Falcons need to improve? Offensively, the Falcons don't have a quarterback, offensive line continuity (or much talent), a #1 running back, or a system everyone is familiar with. The good news is they won't be losing the talent they DO have, including Roddy White and Jerious Norwood, so the thought is they can only improve (They just cut Pro Bowl TE Alge Crumpler). Warrick Dunn may retire and for the Falcons sake, he should. Coach Smith has said he wants a power run game much like the Jags had with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew, but Neither Warrick Dunn nor Jerious Norwood fit that bill. Bobby Petrino for Darren McFadden would be an awfully nice trade for the Falcons. Don't be surprised if the Falcons pass on a QB in the first round to take the explosive back from Arkansas, particularly with the way Adrian Peterson took over the league this past season. Plenty of holes means plenty of work for the new coaching staff, but with 3 picks in the first 2 rounds and an owner willing to spend, the dirty birds will certainly have the means to improve this team right away.

Defense: the Falcons may lose linebackers Demorrio Williams, and Michael Boley two of the few playmakers they have. New head coach Mike Smith will look to add discipline and toughness to a team that has been under-coached for quite a while. The Falcons will have to replace DT Rod Coleman whom they cut this week. Smith had one of the best interior defensive lines in the NFL with Henderson and Stroud in Jacksonville and with the 4-3 defense, the Falcons will have to add along the interior. Safety must also be addressed as Lawyer Milloy has clearly lost a step and Chris Crocker is barely average. Making sure they hold onto Williams and Boley in free agency will allow the Falcons to narrow in on adding on the defensive front and backfield in the draft.

Projected 1st Round Pick: Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

Carolina Panthers 7-9
Needs: WR,DL,S,QB,TE
Offense: Somehow the Carolina Panthers won 7 games last season, despite starting Matt Moore, Vinny Testaverde, and David Carr at quarterback. That probably makes it possible for Jon Fox to avoid taking a QB in the first round, but the Panthers face the prospect of losing a number of key starters via free agency. WR Drew Carter, WR Keary Colbert, RT Jordan Gross, are all FA’s and the Panthers recently cut G Mike Wahle who has since signed with the Seahawks. That could mean a number of new faces in the starting lineup for 2008. The Panthers did sign LT Travelle Wharton, to a long term deal, and must do the same with Gross to sure up the offensive front. The Panther staff was checking out tackle prospects at the Senior Bowl, hoping to be able to fill potential gaps. The offense is predicated on that power run game, so making sure DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster can get their yards is of the utmost importance (Particularly if they expect to start Matt Moore for 17 weeks). The Panthers like WR Dwayne Jarrett along side Steve Smith, but with Colbert and Carter both potentially gone, they must find another weapon whether at WR or TE. Also, if a guy like Brian Brohm is still there, don't be surprised if the Panthers take him. They were looking at QB's at the Senior Bowl and Jake Delhomme hasn't played consistently enough to prove he is a long-term solution.

Defense: DE Mike Rucker, and LB Na'il Diggs are free agents and Dan Morgan was released from a defense that underachieved last season. Defensive end and linebacker were priorities at the Senior Bowl as Carolina appears dedicated to getting younger and more athletic in their front 7. The Panthers were second to last in the league in sacking the quarterback with just 23. DE Chris Ellis from Virginia Tech caught the eye of the Panthers staff and if they look WR or QB in the first round, he could certainly be a possibility in the 2nd or even the 3rd. Carolina resigned S Chris Harris, but his counterpart Deke Cooper is better suited playing special teams. The Panthers will look to both free agency and the draft to find a suitable running mate for Harris in the defensive backfield.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #13 Brian Brohm QB Louisville

New Orleans Saints 7-9
Needs: CB,DT,WR,LB,TE
Offense: Sean Payton's offense outmaneuvered itself early on, trying to get too cute and too creative in using Reggie Bush. With Duece McAllister gone, Bush predictably struggled carrying the load. A healthy backfield should provide the Saints with a formidable backfield. Drew Brees struggled early, but eventually found his groove by mid-season and got the Saints back in to the playoff race, falling short in week 17. Now, the Saints could lose starters WR Devery Henderson and TE Eric Johnson as well as slot receiver Terrance Copper to free agency. The Saints will likely attempt to retain Copper, who the coaches really like, but either way depth at wide receiver is a concern. The scouts at the Senior Bowl seemed keen on a few players in the early-mid rounds like Andre Caldwell and Devin Thomas. Eric Johnson could return, but the Saints could stand to upgrade there with a player like John Carlson 0r Martellus Bennett in the 2nd round. The Saints liked TE Kellen Davis at the Senior Bowl and he could be a potential target in the mid-rounds as well.

Defense: In '07 the defense really let the Saints down. The Colts torched them early on and it was all downhill from there. One of the only regular contributors, LB Mark Simoneau, is an UFA and the Saints will look to strengthen their linebacking core. Finding a corner to play opposite Mike McKenzie has been a struggle since McKenzie arrived in New Orleans and last season proved the Saints need to find a suitable replacement to have any chance at the playoffs. Getting a big body in the middle to help plug the run is also a key defensive priority for the off-season. There is considerably more depth at corner than DT so reaching for someone like DT Kentwan Balmer with the 10th pick and address their corner situation in later rounds would be a viable option.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #10 Mike Jenkins CB South Florida

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7
Needs: OL,CB,LB,WR,RB
Offense: Interesting that a Florida team would be lead on offense by two of the elder statesmen in the NFL. WR Joey Galloway and QB Jeff Garcia flourished under Jon Gruden last season before faltering in he playoffs. The Buccaneers have shown concern over the running back situation with Cadillac Williams knee injury still giving him problems. RB Earnest Graham was the savior of the running game last season and the Bucs just signed RB Michael Bennett for insurance purposes. In front of them is a young, but talented group, although the Bucs could certainly use another blue chipper or two to help facilitate the offense. Joey Galloway also needs help at receiver. The Bucs like WR Jordy Nelson from Kansas State and with more pressing needs could address the WR issue in the mid-rounds.

Defense: Tampa Bay's defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has been one of the most consistent defensive coaches ever. Year in and year out, the Bucs are lead by their defense, and there recent resurgence can be traced to the inspired defensive play. However, the defense, much like Kiffin, is very old at key positions. CB Brian Kelly is a free agent and Ronde Barber isn't getting any younger. OLB Derrick Brooks will turn 35 before the season and his counterpart OLB Cato June was hurt most of the season. Getting some help at linebacker will be key to patching up the holes on the defensive side of the ball. DB Dejuan Tribble of BC would be a perfect fit for the Bucs aggressive D in the mid-rounds as well.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #20 Dan Connor LB Penn State

NFL Off-season Preview: AFC East

2008-02-15T12:28:00.000-08:00

Outside of the New England Patriots, the AFC East was atrocious. However, the Jets are just a season removed from a 10-6 playoff season, and the Bills remain just a few pieces away from competing for the playoffs. The only potential pushover in 2008 will be the Dolphins coming off a 1-15 campaign. Bill Parcells hopes to turn things around quickly and with the #1 pick, the Dolphins will start the rebuilding process. Only the Patriots will be hit hard by free agency and pending retirement so look for the rest of the East to close to gap with the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills 8-8
Needs: WR,TE,CB,DT,LB
Offense: Another off-season in Buffalo, another batch of questions about youth, continuity, and talent. A few certainties? Trent Edwards is the quarterback and they can win with him. Marshawn Lynch is a punishing runner who fits this Bills team perfectly. We also know the Bills have solid edge rushers, but little else on defense. That means there are quite a bit of holes on a team that actually went 8-8. Buffalo returns basically everything from that 8-8 team, including a putrid offense, 30th in points, passing, and total yards. Lee Evans provides basically the only explosion offensively as Roscoe Parish does most of his damage on special teams. The Bills desperately need to get him and Trent Edwards some more weapons in the passing game, which will likely mean a WR and/or TE on the first day of the draft. Guys like WR Malcolm Kelly or TE Martellus Bennett would really help Trent Edwards develop and this offense to add balance.

Defensive: The Bills will get Paul Posluszny back at linebacker which will be huge for a defense that was in the bottom of just about every defensive category. Buffalo's D was decimated by injuries next year and their lack of depth was exposed. They will likely look to add at just about every position defensively particularly at cornerback and defensive tackle. Buffalo has a youth and athleticism at the safety position and good young corners, but the front 7 could certainly use depth and improved overall talent to compete for a Wild Card birth in 2008.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #11 Malcolm Kelley WR Oklahoma

Miama Dolphins 1-15
Needs: OL,DL,CB,WR,QB
Offense: The Miami Dolphins can officially begin the player personnel portion of their off-season now that the coaching staff has been completely assembled. The Dolphins come off a 1-15 season and look to be a team full of holes. Fortunately, the only significant potential FA loss is QB Cleo Lemon who lost his starting job to rookie John Beck a little more than halfway through the season. I keep hearing Matt Ryan as the #1 overall pick (See ESPN's two headed draft monster Kiper Jr./McShay) but look at the QB's Bill Parcells has taken to the playoffs(Quincy Carter!!) and it becomes hard for me to imagine using the top pick on a quarterback. The offensive line could be the place to start, with Sparano and Parcells both having offensive line backgrounds. Jake Long would be an upgrade at either tackle spot and could provide for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams much like Joe Thomas did this past season for Jamal Lewis.

Defense: The defense is aging leading to Zach Thomas' release. Also the future of Jason Taylor remain undecided. Upgrades all along the front 7 will be needed for this defense to return to the level it was several years ago, not to mention serious help in the secondary. The Dolphins scouts keyed on defensive line and cornerbacks at the Senior Bowl. Matt Ryan seems to be the early favorite to be the #1 pick, but Bill Parcells and Chris Long together makes too much sense at this point for me to believe they will go anywhere else. The QB class is deep and a guy like Chad Henne is not that much worse than Brohm, where Long is considerably better than a player like Calais Campbell or Lawrence Jackson (Potential Round 2 DE's)

Projected 1st Round Pick: Chris Long DE Virginia

New England Patriots 16-0
Needs: CB,LB,S,RB,OL
Offense: What is there to say about an offense that scored more points than any team in history and returns at least 10 starters, maybe 11 if Randy Moss doesn't hit the open market. If the Pats can keep Moss, there really aren't any holes on offense. They could use some depth up front and maybe depth at running back as Kevin Faulk is getting old. With the same coaching staff, same system, and same QB (I think his name is something Brady), the Pats offense will be extremely dangerous again assuming they stay healthy. The Patriots will shop their pick from the 49ers at 7 saving money to resign Moss, especially when you consider no CB really warrants top 10 selection.

Defense: Already the Achilles heel if the team, the Pats D will be another year older and will likely lose CB Asante Samuel and CB/S Randall Gay to free agency. That means the Pats will have to do serious talent searching to bolster that unit. In addition, ILB's Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are well into their 30's and could retire. Bruschi is a free agent as it is, although New England would certainly consider bringing him back if he was willing to do so at a discount. The 2008 Patriots will be dynamic on offense, but any 19-0 talk for this team will likely be over by mid-season.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #7 Ryan Clady OT Boise State

New York Jets 4-12
Needs: DE/OLB,WR,G,CB,LB
Offense: Chad Pennington appears to be shipping out, and at times Kellen Clemens flashed the kind of play making ability the coaches expected from him. That said, the offense played with very little consistency, party because of the inexperience at QB, but also the lack of explosion in the running game. Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards, but teams often loaded up against the run because they didn't think Clemens could beat them. Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraneus Coles are dynamic on the outside, but both struggled with drops and Coles had injury problems. Cotchery is the #1 of the future, but Brad Smith and Justin McCareins are not anything special. The Jets could definitely benefit from an upgrade at WR and along the offensive line to help Jones and Clemens.

Defense: John Abraham's absence played a huge role in the lack of pressure the Jets put in opposing QB's in '07. New York's 3-4 defense simply wasn't aggressive enough and failed to get to the quarterback. Darrelle Revis and Kerry Rhodes are young, talented defensive backs, but the Jets need to get better pressure to give their corners and safeties a chance. The Jets were reportedly salivating over Vernon Gholston at the Senior Bowl and he could definitely be there at #6. New York wants to add additional depth at both corner and safety, and with a deep defensive back class, there could be multiple picks addressing the defensive backfield in the draft.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #6 Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State

NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC West

2008-02-12T15:52:00.000-08:00

Back in August, a few "expert" sportswriters picked the NFC West to be the most competitive division in the NFL. In January, the West had no playoff wins, only one team with a winning record and two teams who failed to win 6 games. The Cardinals and 49ers were both trendy picks to make the playoffs, and neither finished over .500. Seattle remains the favorite to win the West again in 2008, but the rest of the West is comprised of a talented bunch of underachievers, who may be just a few pieces away from really competing. Seattle, if they can get keep their key pieces, look poised to take the West. If they can't, the race for the top spot and a playoff birth will be wide open.

Arizona Cardinals 8-8
Needs: OL, LB/DE, RB,S
Offense: In 2007, the Cardinals could have very easily been in the playoffs in a very weak division. 8-8 could have very easily been 10-6, and in this league that simply represents a lost opportunity. The NFC West should improve next season, but to fair, so too should the Cards. Matt Leinart is the quarterback of this team and he needs to have some job security to succeed. Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin helps, but the Cards will likely lose Bryant Johnson to free agency. Look for the Cards to find a replacement in the middle to late rounds of the draft. Edgerrin James hasn't been explosive since coming to the desert, but his line has been extremely inconsistent. The Cardinals would like to improve both areas on offense so don't be surprised to hear Michael Turner's name come up, or if the Cardinals draft a guy like Jonathan Stewart or Richard Mendenhall in the first round. The Cards scouting team closely followed the talented running backs and offensive tackles at the Senior Bowl.

Defensive: 'Zona plans to change defensive schemes to a more aggressive 3-4 look for 2008. That means retaining 26 year old OLB Karlos Dansby has to be a top priority. Adding athletic linebackers who can cover and rush the passer will certainly play into how the Cards attack both the draft and free agency. DT Darnell Docket was a late addition to the Pro Bowl roster and is strong inside. With DE Bertrand Berry, Docket and Dansby formed a formidable trio up front. But beyond that, the defense must be upgraded. Derrick Harvey and Keith Rivers are possibilities in the first round. At the Senior Bowl the Cardinals reportedly focused heavily on pass rushers. Expect the defensive backfield to be addressed in free agency as they let the young corners grow.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #16 Derrick Harvey DE Florida

San Francisco 49ers 5-11
Needs: OL,WR,OLB,S,DE
Offense: The offense in San Fran was so terrible, one might forget that Joe Montana, Roger Craig, Steve Young, and Jerry Rice were part of the some of the greatest offenses ever in the city with the Golden Gate. Enter Mike Martz. The offensive evil genius will bring his brand of aggressive offense to the 32nd ranked scoring and passing offense in the league last season. Alex Smith played extremely poorly last season and head coach Mike Nolan even questioned his QB's toughness. The 49ers do have RB Frank Gore and explosive TE Vernon Davis, but lack at wide receiver. Mike Nolan and his coaching staff had the privilege and the advantage of coaching at the Senior Bowl where they reportedly fell in love with LSU WR Early Doucet III. He is a definite possibility in round 1 for a receiving chore without premier talent.

Defense: Bringing in guys like Nate Clements was supposed to help the 49er D come back to respectability. As it turns out, rookie MLB was the best defensive player on a San Fran defense that finished in the bottom 12 in points against, rushing D, and passing D. Bryant Young, a stalwart for so many years in San Francisco, has retired and leaves a huge void on an already weak defensive line. The 49ers will certainly look to add depth at just about every defensive line position as well as pass rushing hybrid linebackers for their 3-4 system. Tully Banta-Cain did not provide the kind of lift they'd hoped for pressuring the quarterback and former first round pick Manny Lawson was lost for the season in week two. The 49ers have to get better defensively to give their struggling offense some short fields and opportunities to score quickly.

Projected 1st Round Pick: # 29 Early Doucet III WR LSU

Seattle Seahawks 10-6
Needs: G,RB,WR,S,TE
Offense: Shaun Alexander was the MVP of the NFL in 2005. The 2007 Seattle Seahawks finished 20th in the NFL in rushing, thanks mostly to Alexander's inability to create anything explosive in the running game. Mo' Morris didn't fair much better, although he is certainly more of a home run hitter. Losing G Steve Hutchinson was a huge mistake and an enormous blow to both run and pass blocking. Finding a suitable replacement for Hutchinson and Alexander (about a year too late on both) must be priority number one for the Seahawks who will only have Mike Holmgren for one more season. Seattle may also lose WR D.J. Hackett and apparently really liked Texas WR Limas Sweed. The 'Hawks could use help at both WR and TE and there is plenty of talent at the top to warrant a first day pick.

Defense: Although the Seahawks have been perceived as an offense based team since Mike Holmgren has been there, the 2007 'Hawks were carried in many games by their defense. Seattle's D was one of the best team in the league at getting to the quarterback and did so with All-Pro Patrick Kearney and the front 4. Marcus Trufant and Lofa Tatupu are legitimate defensive stars and created all kinds of problems for opposing offenses. But that means Seattle HAS to sign Trufant to a long-term deal after his Pro Bowl season. Seattle's safeties are old and not very athletic. They will likely target a young safety to grow and with future head coach Jim Mora Jr. an defensive backs expert, he should be able to help the Seahawks right away.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #25 Felix Jones RB Arkansas

St. Louis Rams 3-13
Needs:OT, LB,S,CB,QB
Offense: The greatest show on turf quickly became a show with little worth. Pardon the pun, but the St. Louis Rams offense was prolific, even just last season. Injuries played a major role in the deterioration of efficiency, but even when QB Marc Bulger andRB Stephen Jackson were healthy at the end of the season, the Rams still had trouble winning games. Bulger may not be long for this world, especially if he can't stay healthy. It's also never a good sign when arguably your best player has to tell everyone he's NOT retiring. Even with OT Orlando Pace coming back, the Rams must find a tackle in the draft, I just don't expect it to happen in the first round. You can't go 3-13 and then draft an offensive lineman who will sit for a year.

Defense: The Rams hoped Jim Haslett would bring respectability to a defense that has been less than stellar for quite sometime. Adam Carriker made a smooth transition from end to tackle for the Rams, but if Glenn Dorsey is available, it isn't out of the question for him to switch back. DE's Leonard Little and James Hall could not get pressure on anyone and having Dorsey at DT and Carriker at DE would give the Rams a far more potent pass rush. O.J. Atogwe had a breakout season at safety and the corners are decent. The linebackers are sub-par and lack explosion. Also starting OLB Brandon Chillar is a free agent and will likely test the market. Expect to see a great deal of defense donning Rams jerseys in April.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #2 Glenn Dorsey DT LSU

NFL Off-Season Preview: AFC South

2008-02-12T15:03:00.001-08:00

The AFC South had as many teams in the 2007 Playoffs as the other 3 conferences combined. That left just the Texans out of the playoffs, but they finished a respectable 8-8. That made them the only division in the NFL without a team under .500. The Texans and Titans play the Colts extremely tough and the South is very much up for grabs in 2008. Injuries and off-season strength will play an enormous role in determining the division crown and who gets into the playoffs. The South could easily get 3 into the post-season once again in 2008 and don't be surprised if the 4th team is right there as well.

Houston Texans 8-8 Needs: DB,OL,WR,RB,LB
Offense: Gary Kubiak deserves a tremendous amount of credit for giving Texan fans reason to believe their team can be viable, and soon. Matt Schaub is the QB they thought he'd be when he's healthy, and Andre Johnson is becoming an elite wide receiver. To keep improving the Texans will need to find a way to keep pending UFA WR Andre Davis and G Fred Weary . WR Jerome Mathis will also be an UFA and that will negatively effect the offense and return game. Finding more weapons for Matt Schaub will certainly be on the Texans mind come draft day, even running back in the first round would not be surprising, particularly if Stewart or Mendenhall or still on the board. Offensive line will also certainly be a factor in April as the Texans seem interested in getting an offensive tackle in the draft.

Defensive: Mario Williams has proven worthy of the #1 overall, while Demeco Ryans and Amobi Okoye are Pro Bowl caliber players as well. That makes the front office's job much easier because they can be a lot more focused evaluating talent in the off-season. OLB Gary Clark is a free agents, and while he is relatively unknown, he was a key contributors to this team. Defensively, the front 7 played extremely well last season, but the defensive backfield was spotty. They need to improve at safety and corner in order to consistently compete, particularly when you consider they have to see Peyton Manning and Co. twice a year.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: Leodis McKelvin CB Troy

Indianapolis Colts 13-3 Needs: DT,LB,OL,S,WR
Offense: For the Colts to remain at the top of the AFC next season resigning UFA's guards Jake Scott and Ryan Lilja must be made the team's top priority. The Colts offense works so efficiently because of the teamwork upfront, whether its pass-protecting or running blocking, or even getting the blocking assignments on Peyton's audibles. Indy simply does not have the bodies to just plug in someone new and expect not to miss a beat. Unfortunately for the Colts, Scott and Lilja aren't the team's only major potential losses in free agency, the team also faces the prospect of loses star TE Dallas Clark.

Defense: The Colts' defense played significantly better this past season, but still could use an upgrade at defensive tackle and linebacker. Dwight Freeney's loss really magnified the weaknesses on defense down the stretch as the Colts weren't able to generate the same pressure, other players had to make plays and couldn't do it. In Tony Dungy's final season, expect the front office to bolster the front 7 to give the Colts D the kind of players Dungy can really help succeed. The Colts don't have a first round pick, having sent it to San Francisco, so the the Colts will narrow in on a few players in key areas to upgrade this defense.

Projected 2nd Round Pick: Tracy Porter CB Iowa

Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5
Needs: WR,LB,S,DE,CB
Offense: On offense, Jacksonville has two Pro-Bowl caliber running backs and an emerging quarterback. In order to make they work effectively, the Jaguars have been looking at offensive tackles in the draft, particularly Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. The offense also needs to add a game changer at wide receiver. The current group is solid, but unspectacular and a deep threat could really give the Jagaurs offense balance and improved potency. Also, losing Quinn Gray in free agency could mean the Jaguars look at a QB in mid-rounds to groom. People forget David Garrard is already 29 and has had problems with injuries.

Defense: In typical Jaguars style, the team has spent the off-season evaluating talent and will be looking to improve upfront on both sides of the ball. The oonly starter who could be lost to free agency would be DE Paul Spicer, however the Jags were looking to upgrade at that position anyway. The loss of defensive coordinator Mike Smith may not be felt as strongly as it would be elsewhere because head coach Jack Del Rio is a former linebacker and has always worked closely with the defense. Upgrades at linebacker and depth in the defensive backfield will likely be important in the Jags off-season plans. Greg Williams will want to continue to add explosion in the front 7 to fit his aggressive style of play.

Projected 1st Round Pick: James Hardy WR Indiana

Tennessee Titans
Needs: WR,CB,LB,DT,OL
Offense: Vince Young made up for the statistic deficiency of the Titans offense his rookie season. in 2007, Young would go 9-22 and the defense would put the Titans in a position to win games. With new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, the Titans will be looking to add explosion to this offense. LenDale white emerged as a legitimate number 1 back, but Tennesse could lose RB Chris Brown, WR Justin Gage, and TE Ben Troupe from an offense that was built around a solid running game. Losing Brown will not hurt as much because of White's strong play and Chris Henry in the backfield as well. However, the Titans absolutely must find a receiver who can be a game changer. K Rob Bironas is also a free agent, and with the kind of money top-flight kickers are demanding, the Titans may decide the money would better spent elsewhere.

Defense: The Titans defense carried a team that won 10 games often in spite of its offense. DT Albert Haynesworth was one of the most dominant forces in the NFL on either side of the ball when he was healthy. However, Haynesworth is an unrestricted free agent and it will take serious cash to keep him. Either way, the Titans will look to add a defensive tackle this off-season to either pair with or replace Haynesworth. Cornerback and depth at linebacker would also upgrade an already stellar unit.

Projected 1st Round Pick: Mario Manningham WR Michigan

NFL Off-Season Preview: NFC North

2008-02-09T10:56:00.001-08:00

The NFC North used to be the the NFC Central, except with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was known as the black and blue division because every team was physical and they would just beat each other up. This year, with the exception of the Packers, no one in the NFC North was doing much beating of anyone. The Chicago Bears played inconsistently all year and really the only quality games they played were against the Packers. The Lions started out playing extremely well, but their weak early schedule and soft nature proved they were the same old Lions. The Vikings may have found the next star in Adrian Peterson, but their passing offense is pathetic and their pass defense isn't much better. The Green Bay Packers were essentially the only respectable team in the division, but lost at home to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. This young, but talented division was one of 3 in the NFC to have only one team finish above .500. With the AFC South on the schedule this year, don't expect out of division games to be any easier. Each team has some weaknesses, many of them glaring, that will need to be filled this off-season. Here is a look at how each team will likely attack the next few months.

Chicago Bears 7-9
Needs: QB,OL,RB,WR,S
Offense: The year after making it to the Super Bowl, the Chicago Bears failed to get to .500, missed the playoffs, played pathetic offense while underachieving on defense. And oh wait, and they don't have a quarterback. To make matters worse the Bears could lose their best skill position player and their best offensive lineman (not to mention their best defensive player) in free agency. WR Bernard Berrian, G Ruben Brown are unrestricted free agents, and they expect both to command top dollar on the open market. Chicago's scouting department was looking closely at receivers in the Senior Bowl and a first day pick on a receiver is not out of the questions. The Bears desperately need some life at quarterback, but Lovie Smith has animately denied his team would draft one in the first round. Chad Henne, Joe Flacco, or John David Booty could all still be possibilities in the 2-4th roundss. Don't forget about the offensive line, which is getting older and could lose Ruben Brown. Also, Cedric Benson...Enough said.

Defense: OLB Lance Briggs will be the best defensive player in free agency and teams will be lining up to sign him up. A number of teams have already expressed interest in both Berrian and Briggs, which means the Bears could have a tough time retaining either. Brian Urlacher had off-season neck surgery and seems to be deteriorating faster than he should for his age. The defense vastly underachieved this past season and the blame cannot be solely laid on injuries. Tommie Harris is one of the best DT's in football, and the defense can create pressure with their front four. However, they were susceptible to the run much of the year and must inject some youth and athleticism, particularly at linebacker and defensive end. The Bears need to rebuild through the draft so expect them to look at linebackers, defensive ends, wide receivers and quarterbacks come April.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #14 OLB Keith Rivers USC

Detroit Lions 7-9
Needs: OL,CB,TE,LB,S
Offense: Matt Millen really cannot afford to screw this up again. Coming off a promising first half, the Lions collapsed. Luckily, their flaws are clear and potentially correctable. The Lions stand to lose T.J. Duckett from an offense that has serious potential, but didn't always play up to abilities. The Lions have gotten rid of Mike Martz and that should bring more cohesion to the team. Head Coach Rod Marinelli wants to pound the football and in order to do that, the Lions will need an upgrade along the offensive line. The Lions couldn't protect Kitna at all, which lead to errant throws and picks. A tackle like Chris Williams in the first round is certainly possible, but Marinelli is apparently not sold on Kevin Jones as a feature back and could look to one of the blue chip running backs in the first round to find his guy.

Defense: The Lions defense was proficient at creating turnovers last season, but strangely, the cornerbacks are mediocre at best and need to be upgraded. The Lions could also lose LB Boss Bailey in free agency, and are reportedly shopping Shaun Rodgers as well. The Lions disparately need a corner who can cover someone, anyone. Leodis McKelvin, Aqib Talib, and Mike Jenkins are crowded at the top of draft boards and we may not have a clear pecking order until after the combine. Matt Millen does deserve some credit for putting together a viable NFL team this past season for the first time in ages. Hopefully with the cracks so easy to see, he will be able to fill them.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #15 Aqib Talib CB Kansas

Green Bay Packers 13-3
Needs: CB,OL,S,TE,RB
Offense: Anyone who said Green Bay would be one of the top two teams in NFC at the beginning of the year would have been called a lunatic. However, Mike McCarthy's team proved Brett Favre was right when he called this team extremely talented. 2008 should bring added depth and continued improvement to a team loaded at a number of positions. Wide Receiver represents the strongest and deepest unit in the NFC. With the emergence of Ryan Grant and the progress of second year man Brandon Jackson, the Pack should be set in the backfield. Clearly, Brett Favre's future is in doubt, but Green Bay feels good about Aaron Rodgers. To help ensure the success of whoever is behind center, the Green and Gold must add depth to their offensive line at both guard and tackle. A second tight end behind Donald Lee would also be a huge lift as Bubba Franks' skill has diminished considerably.

Defense:The Packers only major potential free agent loss would be Corey Williams. They are hoping not to overpay for Williams and will likely refrain from doing so with Justin Harrell waiting. Green Bay did not play well against Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer in the NFC Championship game so depth and corner will likely be a top priority in the draft. Safety was another possible weakness coming into '07, but Nick Collins was a Pro Bowl alternate and Atari Bigby came up huge down the stretch, particularly in the playoffs. Depth at linebacker seems to be the other relevant need as the Packers D could use an explosive 3rd LB to run with Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk.

Projected 1st Round Draft Pick: #30 Domonique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State

Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Needs: QB,WR,DE,CB,RT
Offense: It seems fate intervened to prevent any team lead by Tavaris Jackson from making the playoffs. Fate happened to be in the form of a hot Washington Redskins team, but fate takes many forms. The Vikings will need fate on their side in '08 with a more experienced Packer team, an improving Lions team, and a Bears team that is only one season removed from the Super Bowl in the division. The Vikings could lose FB Tony Richardson and back-up RB Mewelde Moore in free agency, something that clearly concerns the Vikes. Minnesota was scouting mid to late round running backs to add depth and insurance if/when Chester Taylor leaves. Head Coach Brad Childress has fallen in love with Tavaris Jackson for whatever reason, but don't be surprised if he's pushed from the top to go in a different direction at QB. Regardless of who is throwing the ball, he will need someone on the other end. The Vikings have a hapless group of retreads and failed high draft picks and will look to upgrade. If DeSean Jackson or Malcolm Kelly are there when the Vikings pick, they will not hesitate to snatch up either. DeSean Jackson would be an ideal fit, adding explosiveness to the passing game as well as giving the Vikes a much needed boost on special teams.

Defense: Despite the struggles of first round picks Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James, word out of Minneapolis is they're targeting yet another first round pass rusher. Inside, the Williams brothers are arguably the best tandem in football, but creating pressure has been a problem. The lack of pressure has been compounded with inconsistent play in the secondary. Teams regularly founds seams in the Cover 2 shell and the Vikes pass defense could use help at corner and safety. The Vikings draft in the first three to four rounds will likely consist of a WR,CB, and DE in any order. If they can find the right pieces to fix the pass defense, the Vikings will be a tough team to beat in 2008.

Projected 1st Round Pick: #17 DeSean Jackson WR Cal

The Biggest Loser? How About the Only Loser

2008-02-05T10:08:00.000-08:00

Nearly 100 million viewers watched the New York Giants upset the heavily favored and previously undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. A grizzly, sloppy game until the fourth quarter, the finish was nothing short of spectacular. When the gun sounded Eli Manning was the MVP and Bill Belichick was leaving the field with his pride...well except for the red hoody.

As I watched Mr. Spygate trudge towards Tom Coughlin and offer a hug that ranks in awkwardness to the handshake with Eric Mangini, I realized he was the only person with something to lose. And lose it he did, in dramatic fashion.

The 2007 season will forever be the season the Patriots couldn't finish. Even with the rabid New York media, the Giants will always have to share the spotlight of this season with a team that won 18 straight and couldn't seal the deal in Glendale. For better or for worse, that is the burden of beating the Patriots THIS year. The Patriots still did something no team in NFL history has done, and Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and that offense set records not soon to be broken. Tom Brady already has three rings, and his Patriots place in history as an NFL dynasty was already solidified. Brady become the all-time Super Bowl leader in completions, passing some guy named Montana who I hear is pretty good. The 2007 New England Patriots are the best team not to win a Super Bowl and the one of only a handful of teams to go 18-1. Had the Giants lost, they would have slipped into oblivion.

The problem is, the Giants won. They went on the road and beat Tampa at Tampa, Dallas in Dallas, and Green Bay in Green Bay. That streak gave them 10 consecutive road wins, an NFL record, to cap perhaps the greatest run in history. For a game normally wrapped in hyperbole and cliche, the discussion over "best ____ ever" has to be had after this game, this season. The New York Football Giants certainly had nothing to lose as they were playing with house money. With a loss, the G-Men simply would have been the last highlights on another Patriots Super Bowl season DVD, something the Rams, Panthers, and Eagles all know about.

With a win, Eli Manning can play without the hounding pressure in the Meadowlands. Michael Strahan can retire on top, as one of the greatest rush ends in the modern era. Tom Coughlin completes a remarkable coaching job, banding together a team that had supposedly quit on him a season prior. New York is actually one of the youngest teams in the league and had they lost, would certainly have all the tools to give it a shot next year.

But what about Tiki and Shockey? This nonsense about this being a better team without Tiki Barber is ridiculous. Tiki Barber was not the problem on the Giants team, they simply didn't play consistent football, but Barber did. Regardless of the shots he took at Eli or Coughlin after the fact, Tiki Barber was and still would be the best player on that team. I can't agree with any logic that tells me the Giants are a better team without him.

The same can be said for Shockey. While it was unconscionable for him to be in a box that looked like they were having an early Mardi Gras party, Shockey makes the offense dynamic down the seam. Eli loves to look for Shockey on third down and he is still one of the premier play makers at the position. As far as Shockey as a distraction, he is still on the team. He went to practice, meetings, and walk-through's all season. Sure, you might think Shockey is a loser in general, this Super Bowl win is his gain because he makes them even better next year.

Boston fans, don't even think about it. You were not cheated, jilted, or wronged. You did not lose either. Your Red Sox won the World Series and you're still the best team in baseball. You have the most talented team in the Eastern Conference, and you have 3 Super Bowl W's in less than 10 years. I know about "the curse" and the plight of a Boston sports fan, but give me a break. You'll be back because you have superior talent evaluators and a proven blueprint. Sorry Patriots fans, but I think you'll manage.

One could make a case for advertising agencies here as the reported $2.7 million commercials left a great deal to be desired, we are still talking about how awful they were, so maybe it worked. That leaves the hoody. Bill, you cheated in week 1 against an inferior opponent and a former assistant coach. You then proceeded to downplay the event in public, and use as motivation for your team. You killed teams, went for it on fourth down up 20+, essentially telling the NFL you didn't care and to try and stop you. While piling up 18 straight, you were flippant with the media and alienated fans. Then, just days before the culmination of your perfect season, allegations over previous spying incidents come out. The Eagles suspected you had more information on their game then you should...now someone claims you had more information on the Rams than you should. With your villain status already intact, there was one thing you had to do: Win.

Had Bill Belichick won Super XLII, he would have been justified, now he's simply vilified. And he's earned it. The NFL has unwritten rules, codes and standards to which players and coaches are to adhere. Karma comes around quickly and the only way to avoid it is to win while you can. Bill Belichick took by far his best team to date to play in a game whose outcome was a foregone conclusion. Win, and the Spygate scandal, running up the score, the F U touchdowns, they would all melt away in the magic of 19-0. Lose, and look like cheaters, bullies, and choke-artists. Now Belichick have a chance to go the corner and think about what he's done. Maybe he'll play by the rules next time. Until then, he's simply a loser.

19-0 Does Not Mean Greatest Ever

2008-02-03T12:20:00.000-08:00

The New England Patriots will likely make history tonight and become the first team in the history of the NFL to go 19-0. Sure, the Giants have a chance and gave the Pats their toughest challenge of the season in week 17. The national sports media seems to think that if the Patriots don't win the Super Bowl, then this is a lost season, nothing more than a historical footnote and stellar accomplishment. On the other hand, if the Patriots win people seem to be under the impression that the Patriots leap into first place as the best team in NFL history. The fact of the matter is, the 2007 Patriots are not the greatest team ever. Furthermore, 19-0 does mean necessarily signify the greatest single season performance in NFL history.

Tom Brady made playing quarterback look easy en route to the greatest season a QB has ever had. Not Joe Montana, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning, no one has ever had a season like this. The numbers speak for themselves: 50 TD's, 8 INT's, 4,806, and a rating of 117.2. Sure Peyton Manning had a higher QB rating in 2004 when he broke Marino's record, and Marino had far less options than Brady, but the Patriots offense is absolutely unstoppable and Brady is the reason (See: 26-28 for 262 3 TD's and 0 INT's against Jacksonville in the divisional playoff game).

Randy Moss has cemented himself in the argument with Jerry Rice as one of the best receivers in NFL history. Wes Welker as a slot receiver is more dangerous than Brandon Stokley for the Colts in his prime or Az-Hakim for St. Louis in those years as the "Greatest Show on Turf". Ben Watson is a freak at tight end. Laurence Maroney is capable of pounding you on the ground and Kevin Faulk can beat you in every facet of the offense. This all happens to be behind the best offensive line in football. That O has scored more points than any team in history and won games in dominating fashion.

That being said, the 2007 New England Patriots are not the greatest TEAM of all time. The argument that goes something like, "Line up the '07 Patriots and they'll beat any team" simply fails to account for too many outside factors precluding any sort of objective analysis to take place on that basis. The 2007 Patriots are essentially just a better version of the Colts from 2004-2006: a team with a dynamic offense and a vulnerable defense. The Colts could have gone undefeated had Tony Dungy not decided to sit players, and almost did anyway. Granted that team lost in the playoffs, but going undefeated cannot be the sole criterion applied here.

Until 2007, the 1985 Bears have been widely considered the greatest team of all-time. They went 18-1 and dominated the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. Their only loss came in week 13 to the Miami Dolphins, after which the Bears steamrolled everyone in the NFC and then the Patriots on their way to the title. That defense is probably the greatest ever, holding its opponents to just 198 points total, lowest in the NFL. In 11 of their 16 games, Bears' opponents failed to score more than 10 points. That Bears offense was also second in the league in points scored, a stat that often gets lost among the great defensive numbers.

Even more impressive, that Bears team dominated the NFC at a time when the Washington Redskins were winning championships lead by Joe Gibbs, while Jerry Rice and Joe Montana were in their prime in San Francisco, not to mention Lawrence Taylor was terrorizing opponents and helping the Giants win a championship. The '07 Patriots play in by far the worst division in the AFC with no real competition outside of their division either. Are the Patriots the best team in the NFL in 2007? Regardless of the Super Bowl outcome, the answer to that question is a definite, "Yes." However, the Pats beat just 4 teams with 10 or more wins and only 7 with winning records.

Compare that to the 1991 Washington Redskins who played 8 games against teams who finished with at least 10 wins, winning 6. The 2 games they lost were to division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia by a combined 5 points. That Redskins team scored the most points in the NFL and allowed the second fewest, shutting out 3 opponents. The 'Skins rolled through the playoffs and beat the Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI. This all in an NFC featuring the same powers the Bears faced in the mid and late 80's, including a Cowboy team with a few guys named Aikman, Smith, and Irvin.

The NFL in 2007 was no where near as competitive as it was in the late 80's and early 90's. The Patriots benefited from a pathetically weak division that included an historically putrid Miami Dolphins team who managed just one win, an offensively challenged Bills team who somehow managed to go 8-8, and 4-12 New York Jets team. Imagine the '07 Patriots in the NFC East circa 1991, instead of the then Phoenix Cardinals. Two games against Troy Aikman and company in Dallas, two against Joe Gibbs' Redskins, two games against Randal Cunningham and Philly, and two games against Phil Sims and Lawrence Taylor. When one looks at it that way, its no wonder the Phoenix Cardinals managed just 4 wins.

Even in the 2007 NFC East, it would be hard to imagine the Patriots going undefeated. 18-0 represents an historic feat. 19-0 only magnifies the already record breaking accomplishment of an undefeated season. With the salary cap and draft, it was a feat never thought possible, much less plausible. The 2007 New England Patriots are a great team, even all-time great. But line then up against the 1985 Bears or the 1991 Redskins and instead of playing one game, let them play an entire season. 19-0 talk would probably be done by mid-season.

19-0 will be special for the game, regardless of your thoughts on Randy Moss and Spygate and the way the '07 Patriots basically gave the league the finger this season. Appreciate this team for what they are, a great team that has a chance at history. But don't expect 19-0 to automatically imply #1 team in history status, even if the score is 56-0(which it won't be). One final thought for history, this 2007 New England Patriots will likely go down as one of the most hated Super Bowl Champion in history. They have Bill Belichick, off-season greed, SpyGate, Tom Brady's super-models, Randy Moss, and F U touchdowns to thank for that. I have a feeling Bill Belichick and his team really doesn't care. They just want win number 19.

19 and Upside

2008-01-30T21:26:00.000-08:00

Lebron James headlines an ad campaign representing his journey from shooting hoops in his backyard to his domination of both the NBA and global sports economy. The tagline: "You don't want to be me, you want to be better than me." While that seems unlikely given the way the heir to his "airness" is playing this year, it allows for a reference point in the way we view potential NBA players.

The 2005 represented the last NBA Draft during which teams could draft players straight from high school. 2004 and 2005 each had 8 high school players drafted each, a record that will, if the rule holds, never be broken. If history is any indicator, that is a good thing. Keeping players in college benefits the NBA, college basketball, and most importantly, the players.

In 1999 Jonathan Bender was drafted #5 overall from Picayune Memorial High School by the Toronto Raptors, who then traded him to the Indiana Pacers for Antonio Davis. Bender was drafted ahead of Manu Ginobili, Andrei Kirilenko, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Richard Hamilton, and Wally Szczerbiak all of whom went on to be all-stars. That doesn't even include Andre Miller, Jason Terry, Corey Maggette, James Posey, and Francisco Elson.

Bender was a player who scored 31 points in the McDonald's All-American Game, breaking Michael Jeffrey Jordan's record and was hyped as the leader of a new wave of long, athletic wing players who could score from anywhere. Yet in 6 seasons Bender never averaged double digit scoring, as he struggled to get off the Pacer's bench.

Clearly, there are numerous cases of players being taken too high or too long, it would be unfair to single out Bender. However, 44 players have been taken directly from high school, only 9 have made All-Star appearances. 21 of those players were taken from 2003-2005 and a whopping 6 average double figures this season.

Raising the minimum age allows NBA scouts to judge talent more effectively. Project lottery picks like Paul Harris and Hasheem Thabeet would have jumped to the NBA and their careers would have fizzled out. Neither was polished enough to play at a high level in the NBA. Now, both are playing and improving. That not only helps them, but college basketball benefits from their presence and growth, while the NBA will get a better version of their game when it comes.

Players like Lebron James and Kobre Bryant, who are ready to make the jump do not necessarily benefit directly. However, what 18 year old is mentally prepared for the rigors of NBA life, of celebrity. We've seen how it has affected Kobe's life. The NBA pre-madonna image can be shaken if these high school players go to college and learn from some of the best teachers on the planet. Can you imagine Lebron James playing Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor at UConn on Big Monday? What about if Kobe had followed in MJ's footsteps and attended UNC where he'd face Tim Duncan twice, maybe three times in a season? The kind of player rivalries we have in the NBA now, we used to have in college basketball. The Magic/Bird rivalry started in the NCAA's.

The Freshman class this season appears to be even more talented than the last. Donte Green is third in the Big East in scoring and 11th in rebounding. Eric Gordon leads the Big Ten in scoring while Manny Harris is 5th. Michael Beasley leads the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding differentiating himself by nearly 5 points and 2 rebounds more than his closest competition. O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless are tied for 2nd in scoring in the Pac-10 while Kevin Love is 2nd in boards. Each one of these players, with the exception of Manny Harris, was expected to be a lottery pick coming into the season. To this point, they certainly have not disappointed. But in the NBA, Donte Green would not be able to get 20 shots a night and 6'7'' Michael Beasley probably wouldn't grab 13 boards a game.

None of that matters, the fact is college basketball needs these players. What's more, the NBA needs these players to play college basketball, to learn how to play the game the right way. The NBA has had serious identity issues with mainstream America for quite a while. Notice the #1 and #2 picks in this past year's draft were freshman. We knew Greg Oden was supposed to be the second coming of Patrick Ewing, but Kevin Durant played his way into the lottery. What he did was even more impressive because he didn't just dominate high schoolers, he dominated Big 12 teams from wire to wire. With the overall talent pool increased, dominating the college game has become that much more difficult. As a result, the quality of the college game has increased. The NBA benefits from better players having played against higher levels of competition. Players have a chance to get better, prove their worth, and maybe even learn something in COLLEGE. Hopefully we'll see less stories about star athletes squandering their lives if they get a chance to learn something about life on their way.

The Next Step

2008-01-21T21:10:00.000-08:00

The Conference Championships featured 4 teams with legitimate shots at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in early February. New England had demolished San Diego early in the season, then survived a New York effort that the Giants used to springboard themselves into the playoffs. The Packers outlasted the Giants in the Meadowlands, and San Diego at home. That put the 13.5 point favored Patriots 2-0 against the 3 remaining teams and the 7.5 point favored Packers also stood 2-0. Tom Brady had thrown just 8 interceptions all season, yet three of his passes found the Charger blue on Sunday. Brett Favre had only lost twice at home in the playoffs and 43-5 in games under 34 degrees. Yet Eli Manning was standing victorious at mid-field late Sunday night.

The Giants will go to Glendale believing they can win. The Patriots will go knowing they can't be beaten. Another Patriots trophy will solidify a dynasty and galvanize a villain. And yet, the NFL and the football nation will turn off their televisions February 3rd and wonder what went wrong. The Patriots had the perfect season, 18-0. They had a quarterback playing the best football anyone had ever seen, and a coach who was determined to prove he was the best coach in football. The Giants had played extremely well down the stretch and had pushed the Patriots further than any team this season. The East Coast will love the match up: another Boston/NY clash of the titans. Only, just like Sox Yanks, no one west of Buffalo will really care.

Brett Favre vs. Tom Brady...the legend vs. greatest living...this would have been a match up rife with story lines. No doubt millions will tune in to see if the Giants can stop New England's bid for history. Had #4 taken on Brady and company, the ratings would have been astronomical, as the world would watch in earnest as one of the game's most heroic figures would look to take down the unstoppable super power.

Sure, the upstart Packers proved Sunday night that they weren't prepared for the spotlight or the pressure. Head coach Mike McCarthy did not have a tight game plan, nor did his players execute that game plan. In the biggest game of their season, the Green Bay Packers couldn't live up to the hype.

That must be where the adage, "That's why they play the games" came from. A Super Bowl XXXI rematch would have been too good to be true. Even if the Packers had survived in Lambeau, Green Bay was not ready to take down the NFL's latest and greatest bad boys. Like a Cinderella run into the Final Four, Green Bay's dance in the palace was over, or whatever other cliche sports phrase seems appropriate.

The Packers, Giants, and Cowboys will head into 2008 as the favorites in the NFC, while the Pats, Colts, and Chargers will all likely challenge for the top spot in the AFC. As always, teams like the Seahawks, Redskins, Jaguars, and Steelers will all be prepared to step in should a giant fall. 2008 will have no 19-0 teams, no 50 touchdown performances. 2008 will likely have no prohibitive favorite as is the nature of the NFL most seasons.

2007-08 may have have given Colt, Cowboy, or Packer fans the kind of ending they were hoping for. The beauty of the NFL is that there is always a next step. Scouts clamor to Alabama to watch college football's best seniors showcase their skills at the Senior Bowl this week. For every team not named Giants or Patriots, you have something to look forward to: taking the next step. While the discussion about "how do we get better" started in St. Louis and Miami weeks ago, for every team but 2, your new season has begun. It starts this week.